Kataka v Police prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

KatakaDrawPolice

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Police 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Police are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kataka 32%, draw 27%, Police 41%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Kataka v PoliceBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Kataka win32%

Draw27%

Police win41%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kataka

Police

10Days since last match7

Last match: 20 Oct · Premier League (Uganda)

Last match: 23 Oct · Premier League (Uganda)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Police	7	−6	8
17	Kataka	7	−13	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · police winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Police a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kataka v Police~~1.16 – 1.37

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 2 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 2 v 8~~17 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kataka win	32%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Police win	41%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Kataka or draw	59%	–	–
Kataka clean sheet	26%	–	–
Police clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 8.8 10.6 7.4 3.5 1 9.0 12.6 8.2 3.8 2 5.4 7.1 4.7 2.2 3 2.2 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kataka down, Police across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,210 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 39.7% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Kataka at home: 0.75 scored, 3.00 conceded a game (last 4). Police away: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Kataka, 1.37 for Police. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 2 Sept

KATAKA

LLDLLL1–4 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–5 · 1–4

POLICE

LDWLLD0–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 1–6 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	BUL	7	+11	19
2	SC Villa	7	+13	17
3	NEC	7	+8	14
4	Entebbe UPPC	7	+5	14
5	Blacks Power	7	−2	12
6	Vipers	6	+11	11
7	Maroons	7	+5	10
8	KCCA	6	0	10
9	Kitara	4	+2	8
10	UPDF	6	−1	8
11	Lugazi	7	−5	8
12	Police	7	−6	8
13	Express	7	−2	6
14	Mbarara City	6	−3	5
15	URA	6	−5	4
16	Ntugasaze	6	−10	3
17	Kataka	7	−13	2
18	Kigezi HomeBoyz	6	−8	1