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Kataka v Kitara

Kataka

1–2Full time

Kitara

Premier League · SAT 10 OCT · BCS Sports complex Bukedea

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

Kataka 1–2 Kitara KITARA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kitara win~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.447

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kitara win at 45%.
3′Much as we predicted: Kitara was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 25–30–45
3′KICK-OFF Kataka v Kitara
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Kitara win: 45% at kick-off, 34% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Kitara win 34%)
45′HALF-TIME Kataka 0–0 Kitara
48′SECOND HALF Kataka 0–0 Kitara
52′We said Kitara at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 31%. 0–0 · 19–49–31
59′⚽ GOAL · 58' Kataka 0–1 Kitara
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Kataka 0–2 Kitara
90′⚽ GOAL · 93' Kataka 1–2 Kitara
FTFULL TIME Kataka 1–2 Kitara
FTKataka 1–2 Kitara · Kitara win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Kataka win25%

Draw29%

Kitara win45%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

Venue · BCS Sports complex Bukedea

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kitara winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Kitara a 45% chance to win. The model expects 0.8–1.3, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kataka win	25%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Kitara win	45%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	35%	–	–
Both teams to score	40%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	62%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	17%	–	–
Kataka or draw	55%	–	–
Kataka clean sheet	30%	–	–
Kitara clean sheet	44%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 15.0%

0123450 12.9 15.0 9.5 4.1 1 10.3 12.6 7.7 3.3 2 4.5 5.3 3.3 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kataka down, Kitara across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,192 Premier League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.5% of games this season, across 40 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Kataka at home: 1.00 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 2). Kitara away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.85 goals for Kataka, 1.26 for Kitara. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Premier League

KATAKA

DLLD0–0 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 1–1

KITARA

LDDDDW2–3 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	BUL	4	+8	12
2	NEC	5	+7	11
3	SC Villa	5	+6	11
4	Entebbe UPPC	5	+4	10
5	Blacks Power	5	−2	9
6	Police	5	−1	7
7	KCCA	5	−2	7
8	Vipers	3	+6	6
9	Maroons	5	+2	6
10	Lugazi	5	−5	6
11	Kitara	3	+1	5
12	UPDF	4	0	5
13	Express	5	−1	5
14	URA	4	−4	3
15	Ntugasaze	5	−8	3
16	Mbarara City	4	−2	2
17	Kataka	4	−4	2
18	Kigezi HomeBoyz	4	−5	1