Express v UPDF prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 16:30

Express 1–2 UPDF EXPRESS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Express win~~49%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.943

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.904

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Express win at 49%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Express 49% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–29–22
1′KICK-OFF Express v UPDF
3′UPDF score on 3′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 23–26–51
3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Express 0–1 UPDF
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 3' Express win: 49% at kick-off, 23% now
3′THE CALL SWINGS · 3' UPDF win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Express win 23%)
4′We said Express at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 0–1 · 22–26–51
7′UPDF find the net on 7′. 0–2. 0–2 · 7–14–78
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Express 0–2 UPDF
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' Express win: 49% at kick-off, 7% now
8′We said Express at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 0–2 · 7–14–79
19′UPDF ahead on 4′ through D. Talemwa. 0–2. 0–2 · 5–13–82
26′We said Express at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–12–84
45′HALF-TIME Express 0–2 UPDF
46′SECOND HALF Express 0–2 UPDF
47′UPDF ahead on 8′ through D. Talemwa. 0–2. 0–2 · 2–8–90
70′The goal count is tracking the 2.1 we expected. 0–2 · 0–3–97
76′A goal for Express on 75′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 2–15–83
76′3 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 2–15–83
76′⚽ GOAL · 75' Express 1–2 UPDF
FTFULL TIME Express 1–2 UPDF
FTExpress 1–2 UPDF · Express win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Express are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Express 49%, draw 29%, UPDF 22%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Express v UPDFBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Express win49%

Draw29%

UPDF win22%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 6

VenueHamz Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Express

UPDF

7Days since last match28

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	UPDF	4	0	5
13	Express	5	−1	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · express winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 15 Oct 05:02 · locked at kick-off

49% The market47%

Us49%

~~Market~~47%

We make Express a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Express v UPDF~~1.31 – 0.76

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D2 L2 · W1 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 5 v 5~~13 v 12

~~The market · Express win~~47% · ours 49%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · express win The market, margin stripped

Published at 50%, 49% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Express win	49%	47%	+2
Draw	29%	30%	−1
UPDF win	22%	23%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	34%	41%	−6
Both teams to score	39%	46%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	61%	66%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	16%	21%	−6
Express or draw	78%	77%	+1
Express clean sheet	47%	–	–
UPDF clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.2%

0123450 13.2 9.4 3.7 1 16.2 12.6 4.7 2 10.7 8.0 3.1 3 4.7 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Express down, UPDF across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,199 Premier League matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 38.3% of games this season, across 47 played.

Head to head

The last 10 meetings, in every competition we cover: 1.90 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Express at home: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). UPDF away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Express, 0.76 for UPDF. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.90

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~UPD 0–1 EXP · EXP 1–0 UPD · EXP 2–2 UPD · UPD 0–2 EXP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 29 Aug

EXPRESS

LWLDD0–1 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–0

UPDF

DLDW0–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	SC Villa	6	+11	14
2	NEC	6	+9	14
3	BUL	5	+8	13
4	Entebbe UPPC	5	+4	10
5	KCCA	6	0	10
6	Blacks Power	6	−3	9
7	Kitara	4	+2	8
8	Vipers	4	+6	7
9	Maroons	6	+2	7
10	Lugazi	6	−5	7
11	Police	6	−6	7
12	UPDF	4	0	5
13	Express	5	−1	5
14	Mbarara City	5	−1	5
15	URA	4	−4	3
16	Ntugasaze	6	−10	3
17	Kataka	5	−5	2
18	Kigezi HomeBoyz	5	−7	1