Pitchside Lab
Model 1.1
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Entebbe UPPC v Police

Entebbe UPPC
3–0Full time
Police

Premier League · FRI 9 OCT · Gaddafi Arena

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 17:33
Entebbe UPPC 3–0 Police ENTEBBE UPPC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Entebbe UPPC win47%
The market said40%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.430
The market’s Brier score0.533

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Entebbe UPPC win47%
Draw31%
Police win22%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Gaddafi Arena

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · entebbe uppc winPublished 9 Oct 15:04
47% The market40%
Us47%
Market40%

We make Entebbe UPPC a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.7.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50% 9 OCT 06:219 OCT 12:11
Our probability · entebbe uppc win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Entebbe UPPC win47%40%+6
Draw31%32%−1
Police win22%28%−6
Over 2.5 goals29%35%−6
Both teams to score35%44%−9
Over 1.5 goals56%61%−5
Over 3.5 goals13%17%−5
Entebbe UPPC or draw78%72%+6
Entebbe UPPC clean sheet50%––
Police clean sheet31%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.5%
0123450 15.8 10.6 3.8 1 17.5 12.6 4.4 2 10.4 7.2 2.6 3 4.2 2.9 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Entebbe UPPC down, Police across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.50 of 2
Both scored1 of 2
Last meetingsPOL 1–1 ENT · ENT 0–2 POL

Form · last six in Premier League

ENTEBBE UPPC

DWWWLD1–1 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–0

POLICE

DDWLDW1–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1BUL4+812
2NEC5+711
3SC Villa5+611
4Blacks Power5−29
5Police4+27
6Entebbe UPPC4+17
7Vipers3+66
8Maroons5+26
9Lugazi5−56
10Kitara3+15
11UPDF405
12Express5−15
13KCCA4−34
14URA3−33
15Ntugasaze5−83
16Mbarara City4−22
17Kataka4−42
18Kigezi HomeBoyz4−51

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.