BUL v NEC prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 16:31

BUL 2–1 NEC BUL WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said BUL win~~41%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.531

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.510

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said BUL win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: BUL 41% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–32–28
1′KICK-OFF BUL v NEC
13′We said BUL at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 1–0 · 73–19–8
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' BUL 1–0 NEC
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' BUL win: 41% at kick-off, 73% now
14′BUL find the net on 14′. 1–0. 1–0 · 73–19–8
18′BUL find the net on 15′. 1–0. 1–0 · 74–19–8
18′We said BUL at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 2–0 · 92–6–2
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' BUL 2–0 NEC
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' BUL win: 41% at kick-off, 92% now
19′GOAL DISALLOWED · 19' BUL
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' BUL win: 41% at kick-off, 74% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 1.9 we expected. 1–0 · 75–19–6
45′SECOND HALF BUL 1–0 NEC
47′HALF-TIME BUL 1–0 NEC
50′We said BUL at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–50–21
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' BUL 1–1 NEC
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' BUL win: 41% at kick-off, 29% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 50% (was BUL win 79%)
51′A goal for NEC on 51′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 28–51–21
60′We said BUL at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–58–18
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' BUL win: 41% at kick-off, 21% now
67′We said BUL at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–2
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' BUL 2–1 NEC
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' BUL win: 41% at kick-off, 85% now
67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' BUL win is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Draw 65%)
68′BUL score on 68′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 85–13–1
69′3 goals already, more than the 1.9 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 86–13–1
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' BUL win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
85′We said BUL at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
FTFULL TIME BUL 2–1 NEC
FTBUL 2–1 NEC · BUL win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

BUL are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: BUL 41%, draw 32%, NEC 28%. Over 2.5 goals 31%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on BUL v NECBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

BUL win41%

Draw32%

NEC win28%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueFUFA Technical Centre

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

BUL

NEC

3Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Premier League (Uganda)

Last match: 14 Oct · Premier League (Uganda)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bul winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 21 Oct 04:08 · locked at kick-off

41% The market42%

Us41%

~~Market~~42%

We make BUL a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.1–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · BUL v NEC~~1.10 – 0.85

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 29 Aug~~W5 D1 L0 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 16 v 14~~1 v 3

~~The market · BUL win~~42% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · BUL win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
BUL win	41%	42%	−1
Draw	32%	35%	−3
NEC win	28%	23%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	31%	34%	−3
Both teams to score	38%	42%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	58%	60%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	14%	18%	−4
BUL or draw	72%	77%	−5
BUL clean sheet	43%	–	–
NEC clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.2%

0123450 14.9 11.8 5.2 1 15.2 13.4 5.6 2 8.5 7.1 3.0 3 3.2 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+BUL down, NEC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,204 Premier League matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.4% of games this season, across 52 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 1.67 goals a meeting; 0 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

BUL at home: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). NEC away: 1.00 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.10 goals for BUL, 0.85 for NEC. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~BUL 0–1 NEC · NEC 1–1 BUL · NEC 1–1 BUL · BUL 1–1 NEC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 29 Aug

BUL

WWWWDW1–0 · 4–1 · 4–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 2–0

NEC

WWDWDW2–0 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 4–1 · 0–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	BUL	6	+10	16
2	SC Villa	6	+11	14
3	NEC	6	+9	14
4	Entebbe UPPC	6	+4	11
5	Vipers	5	+11	10
6	Maroons	7	+5	10
7	KCCA	6	0	10
8	Blacks Power	6	−3	9
9	Kitara	4	+2	8
10	UPDF	6	−1	8
11	Lugazi	6	−5	7
12	Police	6	−6	7
13	Mbarara City	5	−1	5
14	Express	6	−2	5
15	URA	5	−4	4
16	Ntugasaze	6	−10	3
17	Kataka	7	−13	2
18	Kigezi HomeBoyz	5	−7	1