Blacks Power v URA

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said URA win at 38%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: URA 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 32–30–38
3. 1′KICK-OFF Blacks Power v URA
4. 3′A goal for URA on 3′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 12–20–68
5. 3′We said URA at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 68%. 0–1 · 12–20–68
6. 3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Blacks Power 0–1 URA
7. 3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' URA win: 38% at kick-off, 68% now
8. 17′We said URA at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 10–20–70
9. 23′Blacks Power score on 22′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 30–36–34
10. 23′⚽ GOAL · 22' Blacks Power 1–1 URA
11. 23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' URA win: 38% at kick-off, 34% now
12. 29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was URA win 70%)
13. 45′HALF-TIME Blacks Power 2–1 URA
14. 46′SECOND HALF Blacks Power 2–1 URA
15. 48′Blacks Power find the net on 45′. 2–1. 2–1 · 72–22–7
16. 48′We said URA at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 2–1 · 72–22–7
17. 48′⚽ GOAL · 45+3' Blacks Power 2–1 URA
18. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+3' URA win: 38% at kick-off, 7% now
19. 48′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+3' Blacks Power win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Draw 46%)
20. 49′3 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 72–21–7
21. 57′A goal for Blacks Power on 56′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 95–4–1
22. 57′We said URA at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 3–1 · 95–4–1
23. 57′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 95–4–1
24. 57′⚽ GOAL · 56' Blacks Power 3–1 URA
25. 62′URA score on 62′ to make it 3–2. 3–2 · 77–19–4
26. 62′5 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 77–19–4
27. 62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Blacks Power 3–2 URA
28. 79′URA are down to ten from 78′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 3–2 · 89–11–1
29. 79′🟥 RED CARD · 78' URA
30. FTFULL TIME Blacks Power 3–2 URA
31. FTBlacks Power 3–2 URA · URA win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.