Şagadam v Aşgabat prediction · Ýokary Liga

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Şagadam are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Şagadam 45%, draw 26%, Aşgabat 29%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Şagadam v AşgabatBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

Şagadam win45%

Draw26%

Aşgabat win29%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 23

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Şagadam

Aşgabat

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Ýokary Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Şagadam	22	−16	22
7	Aşgabat	22	−25	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · şagadam winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:12 · postponed, not graded

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Şagadam a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Şagadam v Aşgabat~~1.34 – 1.01

~~Form · last six in Ýokary Liga this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D0 L4 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 22 v 15~~4 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Şagadam win

Published at 46%, 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Şagadam win	45%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Aşgabat win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	42%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Şagadam or draw	71%	–	–
Şagadam clean sheet	37%	–	–
Aşgabat clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.5%

0123450 9.1 10.5 4.9 1 13.5 11.8 6.4 2.2 2 8.5 8.4 4.2 3 3.8 3.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Şagadam down, Aşgabat across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 605 Ýokary Liga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ýokary Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.8% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Şagadam at home: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Aşgabat away: 1.33 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Şagadam, 1.01 for Aşgabat. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ASG 1–0 SAG · SAG 0–2 ASG · ASG 1–3 SAG · SAG 2–1 ASG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ýokary Liga this season · since 22 Aug

ŞAGADAM

WLWLLL3–2 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 0–3

AŞGABAT

DLLDLL1–1 · 0–3 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 3–4 · 2–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Arkadag	24	+85	72
2	Altyn Asyr	21	+18	47
3	Ahal	22	+22	42
4	Şagadam	22	−16	22
5	Nebitci	22	−18	22
6	Merw	21	−36	18
7	Aşgabat	22	−25	15
8	Köpetdag Aşgabat	22	−30	14