Şagadam v Arkadag prediction · Ýokary Liga

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Arkadag are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Şagadam 5%, draw 11%, Arkadag 84%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Şagadam v ArkadagBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · postponed, not graded

Şagadam win5%

Draw11%

Arkadag win84%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 25

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Şagadam

Arkadag

9Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Ýokary Liga

Last match: 14 Oct · AFC Champions League Two

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · arkadag winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 15 Oct 05:01 · postponed, not graded

84% The market–

Us84%

We make Arkadag an 84% chance to win. The model expects 0.5–2.9, and 0–2 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Şagadam v Arkadag~~0.55 – 2.88

~~Form · last six in Ýokary Liga this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D0 L4 · W6 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 22 v 72~~5 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Arkadag win

Published at 86%, 84% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Şagadam win	5%	–	–
Draw	11%	–	–
Arkadag win	84%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	66%	–	–
Both teams to score	39%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	45%	–	–
Şagadam or draw	16%	–	–
Şagadam clean sheet	6%	–	–
Arkadag clean sheet	58%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 13.4%

0123450 3.2 9.9 13.4 12.6 9.1 5.41 2.2 4.9 7.1 6.7 4.8 2.82 2.0 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Şagadam down, Arkadag across0–5 goals a side shown (92.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 606 Ýokary Liga matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ýokary Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.3% of games this season, across 89 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 4.20 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Şagadam at home: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Arkadag away: 4.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.55 goals for Şagadam, 2.88 for Arkadag. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~4.20

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ARK 3–0 SAG · SAG 1–4 ARK · ARK 0–0 SAG · ARK 2–0 SAG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ýokary Liga this season · since 22 Aug

ŞAGADAM

WLWLLL3–2 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 0–3

ARKADAG

WWWWWW3–0 · 4–2 · 1–0 · 5–0 · 4–0 · 5–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Arkadag	24	+85	72
2	Altyn Asyr	22	+19	50
3	Ahal	22	+22	42
4	Nebitci	23	−17	25
5	Şagadam	22	−14	22
6	Merw	22	−39	18
7	Aşgabat	22	−25	15
8	Köpetdag Aşgabat	23	−31	14