Nebitci v Şagadam prediction · Ýokary Liga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:46

Nebitci 3–0 Şagadam NEBITCI WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Nebitci win~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.620

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Nebitci win36%

Draw28%

Şagadam win36%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Nebitci

Şagadam

22Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Şagadam	21	−16	19
6	Nebitci	21	−21	19

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nebitci winPublished 11 Oct 15:30

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Nebitci a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nebitci win	36%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Şagadam win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	35%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	61%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
Nebitci or draw	64%	–	–
Nebitci clean sheet	36%	–	–
Şagadam clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.7%

0123450 11.8 13.7 6.7 2.4 1 13.7 12.3 6.9 2.5 2 6.7 6.9 3.6 3 2.4 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nebitci down, Şagadam across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 603 Ýokary Liga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ýokary Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.8% of games this season, across 86 played.

Head to head

20 previous meetings, 2.45 goals a meeting; 8 of 20 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nebitci at home: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Şagadam away: 0.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.05 goals for Nebitci, 1.05 for Şagadam. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

20 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.45

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 20

~~Both scored~~10 of 20

~~Last meetings~~SAG 1–1 NEB · NEB 0–0 SAG · SAG 1–0 NEB · NEB 0–0 SAG

Form · last six in Ýokary Liga

NEBITCI

WDDLLL1–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 2–4 · 0–3 · 2–4

ŞAGADAM

LWLWLL0–1 · 3–2 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Arkadag	24	+80	70
2	Altyn Asyr	20	+20	45
3	Ahal	22	+17	42
4	Merw	21	−33	21
5	Şagadam	21	−16	19
6	Nebitci	21	−21	19
7	Aşgabat	21	−21	15
8	Köpetdag Aşgabat	22	−26	14