Nebitci v Merw prediction · Ýokary Liga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 17:55

Nebitci 3–0 Merw NEBITCI WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Nebitci win~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.356

Corrected on 18 Oct: this match was first recorded as postponed and left ungraded; it was played as scheduled, 3–0, and the grades above follow it.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Nebitci are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nebitci 51%, draw 24%, Merw 25%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Nebitci v MerwBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

Nebitci win51%

Draw24%

Merw win25%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 23

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nebitci

Merw

6Days since last match23

Last match: 11 Oct · Ýokary Liga

Last match: 24 Sept · Ýokary Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Nebitci	22	−18	22
6	Merw	21	−36	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nebitci winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:12 · postponed, not graded

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Nebitci a 51% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nebitci v Merw~~1.56 – 0.97

~~Form · last six in Ýokary Liga this season · since 15 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 22 v 18~~5 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Nebitci win

Published at 49%, 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nebitci win	51%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Merw win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Nebitci or draw	75%	–	–
Nebitci clean sheet	38%	–	–
Merw clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.2%

0123450 7.6 8.6 3.9 1 13.2 11.1 5.8 2 9.5 9.0 4.4 3 5.0 4.7 2.3 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nebitci down, Merw across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 605 Ýokary Liga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ýokary Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.8% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.10 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nebitci at home: 1.50 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Merw away: 0.67 scored, 3.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Nebitci, 0.97 for Merw. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.10

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MER 0–1 NEB · NEB 2–1 MER · MER 4–1 NEB · MER 1–2 NEB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ýokary Liga this season · since 15 Aug

NEBITCI

DDLLLW1–1 · 2–2 · 2–4 · 0–3 · 2–4 · 3–0

MERW

LLWDWL0–1 · 0–4 · 3–2 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 0–5

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Arkadag	24	+85	72
2	Altyn Asyr	21	+18	47
3	Ahal	22	+22	42
4	Şagadam	22	−16	22
5	Nebitci	22	−18	22
6	Merw	21	−36	18
7	Aşgabat	22	−25	15
8	Köpetdag Aşgabat	22	−30	14