Nebitci v Köpetdag Aşgabat prediction · Ýokary Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

NebitciDrawKöpetdag Aşgabat

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Nebitci 49%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Nebitci are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nebitci 49%, draw 26%, Köpetdag Aşgabat 25%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Nebitci v Köpetdag AşgabatBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Nebitci win49%

Draw26%

Köpetdag Aşgabat win25%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 25

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nebitci

Köpetdag Aşgabat

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · Ýokary Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Nebitci	23	−17	25
8	Köpetdag Aşgabat	23	−31	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nebitci winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Nebitci a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nebitci v Köpetdag Aşgabat~~1.42 – 0.94

~~Form · last six in Ýokary Liga this season · since 30 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W0 D4 L2

~~Table places · points 25 v 14~~4 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nebitci win	49%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Köpetdag Aşgabat win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	42%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Nebitci or draw	75%	–	–
Nebitci clean sheet	40%	–	–
Köpetdag Aşgabat clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.9%

0123450 9.3 9.4 4.2 1 13.9 11.8 5.8 2 9.5 8.6 4.1 3 4.6 4.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nebitci down, Köpetdag Aşgabat across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 608 Ýokary Liga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ýokary Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.0% of games this season, across 91 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nebitci at home: 1.83 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Köpetdag Aşgabat away: 0.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Nebitci, 0.94 for Köpetdag Aşgabat. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~KOP 2–2 NEB · NEB 1–0 KOP · KOP 0–1 NEB · NEB 2–1 KOP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ýokary Liga this season · since 30 Aug

NEBITCI

LLLWWD2–4 · 0–3 · 2–4 · 3–0 · 3–0 · 0–0

KÖPETDAG AŞGABAT

DDDLLD2–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–5 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Arkadag	25	+89	75
2	Altyn Asyr	23	+24	53
3	Ahal	22	+22	42
4	Nebitci	23	−17	25
5	Şagadam	23	−18	22
6	Merw	23	−44	18
7	Aşgabat	22	−25	15
8	Köpetdag Aşgabat	23	−31	14