Köpetdag Aşgabat v Şagadam prediction · Ýokary Liga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53

Köpetdag Aşgabat 0–0 Şagadam ŞAGADAM WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Şagadam win~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.758

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Close to call, with Şagadam just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Köpetdag Aşgabat 34%, draw 29%, Şagadam 37%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Köpetdag Aşgabat v ŞagadamBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · postponed, not graded

Köpetdag Aşgabat win34%

Draw29%

Şagadam win37%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 24

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Köpetdag Aşgabat

Şagadam

21Days since last match13

Last match: 3 Oct · Ýokary Liga

Last match: 11 Oct · Ýokary Liga

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Şagadam	23	−18	22
8	Köpetdag Aşgabat	23	−31	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · şagadam winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · postponed, not graded

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Şagadam a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.0, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Köpetdag Aşgabat v Şagadam~~1.00 – 1.04

~~Form · last six in Ýokary Liga this season · since 22 Aug~~W0 D3 L3 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 14 v 22~~8 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Köpetdag Aşgabat win	34%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Şagadam win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	33%	–	–
Both teams to score	39%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	59%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	15%	–	–
Köpetdag Aşgabat or draw	63%	–	–
Köpetdag Aşgabat clean sheet	36%	–	–
Şagadam clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.3%

0123450 12.7 14.3 7.0 2.5 1 13.8 12.3 6.8 2.4 2 6.5 6.5 3.4 3 2.2 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Köpetdag Aşgabat down, Şagadam across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 606 Ýokary Liga matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ýokary Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.3% of games this season, across 89 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.10 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Köpetdag Aşgabat at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Şagadam away: 0.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.00 goals for Köpetdag Aşgabat, 1.04 for Şagadam. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.10

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SAG 3–2 KOP · KOP 0–0 SAG · SAG 2–0 KOP · SAG 0–0 KOP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ýokary Liga this season · since 22 Aug

KÖPETDAG AŞGABAT

LDDDLL2–3 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–5

ŞAGADAM

WLWLLL3–2 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 0–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Arkadag	25	+89	75
2	Altyn Asyr	23	+24	53
3	Ahal	22	+22	42
4	Nebitci	23	−17	25
5	Şagadam	23	−18	22
6	Merw	23	−44	18
7	Aşgabat	22	−25	15
8	Köpetdag Aşgabat	23	−31	14