Aşgabat v Nebitci prediction · Ýokary Liga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53

Aşgabat 0–0 Nebitci AŞGABAT WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Aşgabat win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.878

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Aşgabat are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Aşgabat 42%, draw 24%, Nebitci 34%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Aşgabat v NebitciBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Aşgabat win42%

Draw24%

Nebitci win34%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 11:30

RoundMatchday 24

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Aşgabat

Nebitci

13Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Ýokary Liga

Last match: 17 Oct · Ýokary Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Nebitci	23	−17	25
7	Aşgabat	22	−25	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aşgabat winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Aşgabat a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Aşgabat v Nebitci~~1.48 – 1.30

~~Form · last six in Ýokary Liga this season · since 22 Aug~~W0 D2 L4 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 15 v 25~~7 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aşgabat win	42%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Nebitci win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Aşgabat or draw	66%	–	–
Aşgabat clean sheet	28%	–	–
Nebitci clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.8 8.9 5.3 2.3 1 10.0 11.0 7.5 3.3 2 6.8 8.5 5.5 2.4 3 3.4 4.3 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Aşgabat down, Nebitci across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 606 Ýokary Liga matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ýokary Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.3% of games this season, across 89 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.90 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aşgabat at home: 2.17 scored, 2.83 conceded a game (last 6). Nebitci away: 1.17 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Aşgabat, 1.30 for Nebitci. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.90

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~NEB 1–1 ASG · ASG 1–0 NEB · NEB 1–0 ASG · NEB 1–0 ASG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ýokary Liga this season · since 22 Aug

AŞGABAT

DLLDLL1–1 · 0–3 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 3–4 · 2–4

NEBITCI

DLLLWW2–2 · 2–4 · 0–3 · 2–4 · 3–0 · 3–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Arkadag	25	+89	75
2	Altyn Asyr	23	+24	53
3	Ahal	22	+22	42
4	Nebitci	23	−17	25
5	Şagadam	23	−18	22
6	Merw	23	−44	18
7	Aşgabat	22	−25	15
8	Köpetdag Aşgabat	23	−31	14