Aşgabat v Altyn Asyr prediction · Ýokary Liga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:46

Aşgabat 2–4 Altyn Asyr ALTYN ASYR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Altyn Asyr win~~66%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.176

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Aşgabat win16%

Draw18%

Altyn Asyr win66%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Aşgabat

Altyn Asyr

22Days since last match4

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Altyn Asyr	20	+20	45
7	Aşgabat	21	−21	15

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · altyn asyr winPublished 11 Oct 15:30

66% The market–

Us66%

We make Altyn Asyr a 66% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–2.3, and 0–2 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aşgabat win	16%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Altyn Asyr win	66%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	63%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	41%	–	–
Aşgabat or draw	34%	–	–
Aşgabat clean sheet	11%	–	–
Altyn Asyr clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 9.7%

0123450 3.6 9.4 9.7 7.3 4.2 1 4.6 8.1 9.5 7.0 4.0 2 2.0 4.3 4.7 3.5 2.0 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Aşgabat down, Altyn Asyr across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 603 Ýokary Liga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ýokary Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.8% of games this season, across 86 played.

Head to head

20 previous meetings, 3.25 goals a meeting; 13 of 20 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aşgabat at home: 2.00 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Altyn Asyr away: 2.17 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.00 goals for Aşgabat, 2.26 for Altyn Asyr. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

20 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~13 of 20

~~Both scored~~10 of 20

~~Last meetings~~ALT 2–1 ASG · ASG 0–1 ALT · ALT 4–1 ASG · ASG 0–5 ALT

Form · last six in Ýokary Liga

AŞGABAT

WDLLDL1–0 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 3–4

ALTYN ASYR

WWLWWW2–1 · 2–1 · 2–5 · 2–0 · 4–2 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Arkadag	24	+80	70
2	Altyn Asyr	20	+20	45
3	Ahal	22	+17	42
4	Merw	21	−33	21
5	Şagadam	21	−16	19
6	Nebitci	21	−21	19
7	Aşgabat	21	−21	15
8	Köpetdag Aşgabat	22	−26	14