Altyn Asyr v Merw prediction · Ýokary Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Altyn AsyrDrawMerw

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Altyn Asyr 82%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Altyn Asyr are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Altyn Asyr 82%, draw 11%, Merw 7%. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Altyn Asyr v MerwBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Altyn Asyr win82%

Draw11%

Merw win7%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 11:30

RoundMatchday 19

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Altyn Asyr

Merw

10Days since last match4

Last match: 11 Oct · Ýokary Liga

Last match: 17 Oct · Ýokary Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Altyn Asyr	22	+19	50
6	Merw	22	−39	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · altyn asyr winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 18 Oct 00:21 · locked at kick-off

82% The market–

Us82%

We make Altyn Asyr an 82% chance to win. The model expects 3.1–0.7, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Altyn Asyr v Merw~~3.14 – 0.75

~~Form · last six in Ýokary Liga this season · since 15 Aug~~W5 D0 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 50 v 18~~2 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Altyn Asyr win

Published at 81%, 82% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Altyn Asyr win	82%	–	–
Draw	11%	–	–
Merw win	7%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	73%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	53%	–	–
Altyn Asyr or draw	93%	–	–
Altyn Asyr clean sheet	48%	–	–
Merw clean sheet	5%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.0%

0123450 2.2 2.2 1 7.2 5.0 2.0 2 10.0 7.4 2.9 3 10.0 7.3 2.8 4 7.7 5.5 2.1 5 5.0 3.5

under 2% 5% 12%+Altyn Asyr down, Merw across0–5 goals a side shown (88.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 606 Ýokary Liga matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ýokary Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.3% of games this season, across 89 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Altyn Asyr at home: 2.50 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 6). Merw away: 0.50 scored, 3.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.14 goals for Altyn Asyr, 0.75 for Merw. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MER 0–2 ALT · ALT 2–0 MER · ALT 3–2 MER · MER 0–0 ALT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ýokary Liga this season · since 15 Aug

ALTYN ASYR

WLWWWW2–1 · 2–5 · 2–0 · 4–2 · 2–0 · 4–2

MERW

LWDWLL0–4 · 3–2 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 0–5 · 0–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Arkadag	25	+89	75
2	Altyn Asyr	22	+19	50
3	Ahal	22	+22	42
4	Nebitci	23	−17	25
5	Şagadam	23	−18	22
6	Merw	22	−39	18
7	Aşgabat	22	−25	15
8	Köpetdag Aşgabat	23	−31	14