Altyn Asyr v Köpetdag Aşgabat prediction · Ýokary Liga

AI match analysis

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Pitchside prediction · postponed

Altyn Asyr are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Altyn Asyr 78%, draw 13%, Köpetdag Aşgabat 9%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Altyn Asyr v Köpetdag AşgabatBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

Altyn Asyr win78%

Draw13%

Köpetdag Aşgabat win9%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 23

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Altyn Asyr

Köpetdag Aşgabat

6Days since last match14

Last match: 11 Oct · Ýokary Liga

Last match: 3 Oct · Ýokary Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Altyn Asyr	21	+18	47
8	Köpetdag Aşgabat	22	−30	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · altyn asyr winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 05:01 · postponed, not graded

78% The market–

Us78%

We make Altyn Asyr a 78% chance to win. The model expects 2.8–0.8, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Altyn Asyr v Köpetdag Aşgabat~~2.80 – 0.79

~~Form · last six in Ýokary Liga this season · since 15 Aug~~W5 D0 L1 · W0 D3 L3

~~Table places · points 47 v 14~~2 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Altyn Asyr win

Published at 79%, 78% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Altyn Asyr win	78%	–	–
Draw	13%	–	–
Köpetdag Aşgabat win	9%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	68%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	48%	–	–
Altyn Asyr or draw	91%	–	–
Altyn Asyr clean sheet	46%	–	–
Köpetdag Aşgabat clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.7%

0123450 2.7 2.8 1 8.4 5.9 2.5 2 10.7 8.3 3.3 3 9.8 7.5 3.0 4 6.8 5.2 2.1 5 4.0 3.0

under 2% 5% 12%+Altyn Asyr down, Köpetdag Aşgabat across0–5 goals a side shown (92.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 605 Ýokary Liga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ýokary Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.8% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 9 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Altyn Asyr at home: 2.50 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 6). Köpetdag Aşgabat away: 0.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.80 goals for Altyn Asyr, 0.79 for Köpetdag Aşgabat. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~KOP 1–2 ALT · ALT 2–5 KOP · KOP 0–3 ALT · KOP 1–5 ALT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ýokary Liga this season · since 15 Aug

ALTYN ASYR

WLWWWW2–1 · 2–5 · 2–0 · 4–2 · 2–0 · 4–2

KÖPETDAG AŞGABAT

LDDDLL2–3 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–5

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Arkadag	24	+85	72
2	Altyn Asyr	21	+18	47
3	Ahal	22	+22	42
4	Şagadam	22	−16	22
5	Nebitci	22	−18	22
6	Merw	21	−36	18
7	Aşgabat	22	−25	15
8	Köpetdag Aşgabat	22	−30	14