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Model 1.2

Home › Football › Türkiye Kupası › Sakaryaspor v Bursa Yıldırımspor

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Sakaryaspor v Bursa Yıldırımspor

Sakaryaspor
15:00Upcoming
Bursa Yıldırımspor

Türkiye Kupası · WED 28 OCT

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SakaryasporDrawBursa Yıldırımspor
Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00
Before kick-off · Match result · Sakaryaspor 56%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sakaryaspor are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sakaryaspor 56%, draw 24%, Bursa Yıldırımspor 20%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Sakaryaspor v Bursa YıldırımsporBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Sakaryaspor win56%
Draw24%
Bursa Yıldırımspor win20%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 15:00

Round3rd round

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sakaryaspor

Bursa Yıldırımspor

4Days since last match4

Last match: 24 Oct · 2. Lig

Last match: 24 Oct · 3. Lig - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sakaryaspor winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
56% The market–
Us56%

We make Sakaryaspor a 56% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–0.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Sakaryaspor v Bursa Yıldırımspor1.74 – 0.94
Form · Türkiye Kupası this season · since 6 OctW1 D0 L0 · W1 D0 L0

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Sakaryaspor win56%––
Draw24%––
Bursa Yıldırımspor win20%––
Over 2.5 goals50%––
Both teams to score51%––
Over 1.5 goals75%––
Over 3.5 goals28%––
Sakaryaspor or draw80%––
Sakaryaspor clean sheet39%––
Bursa Yıldırımspor clean sheet18%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%
0123450 7.2 6.1 3.0 1 11.6 11.6 5.3 2 10.4 9.8 4.6 3 6.0 5.7 2.7 4 2.6 2.5 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Sakaryaspor down, Bursa Yıldırımspor across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Türkiye Kupası this season · since 6 Oct

SAKARYASPOR

W2–0

BURSA YILDIRIMSPOR

W2–0