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Model 1.2

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Kastamonuspor v 24 Erzincanspor

Kastamonuspor
10:30Upcoming
24 Erzincanspor

Türkiye Kupası · WED 28 OCT

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

KastamonusporDraw24 Erzincanspor
Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 10:30
Before kick-off · Match result · 24 Erzincanspor 53%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

24 Erzincanspor are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kastamonuspor 26%, draw 21%, 24 Erzincanspor 53%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Kastamonuspor v 24 ErzincansporBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Kastamonuspor win26%
Draw21%
24 Erzincanspor win53%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 10:30

Round3rd round

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kastamonuspor

24 Erzincanspor

4Days since last match4

Last match: 24 Oct · 2. Lig

Last match: 24 Oct · 2. Lig

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · 24 erzincanspor winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · updated 25 Oct 00:30 · locked at kick-off
53% The market–
Us53%

We make 24 Erzincanspor a 53% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–2.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Kastamonuspor v 24 Erzincanspor1.25 – 2.04

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 22 OCT 00:0125 OCT 04:31
Our probability · 24 Erzincanspor win

Published at 47%, 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Kastamonuspor win26%––
Draw21%––
24 Erzincanspor win53%––
Over 2.5 goals62%––
Both teams to score58%––
Over 1.5 goals82%––
Over 3.5 goals41%––
Kastamonuspor or draw47%––
Kastamonuspor clean sheet17%––
24 Erzincanspor clean sheet30%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%
0123450 4.9 7.5 7.1 4.9 2.8 1 5.5 9.7 8.3 5.5 3.0 2 3.7 6.0 5.2 3.3 3 2.6 2.2 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Kastamonuspor down, 24 Erzincanspor across0–5 goals a side shown (96.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022/23
Goals a meeting2.67
Over 2.53 of 6
Both scored3 of 6
Last meetingsKAS 1–0 ERZ · ERZ 2–0 KAS · ERZ 2–2 KAS · KAS 2–2 ERZ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Türkiye Kupası this season

KASTAMONUSPOR

No matches in our record yet.

24 ERZINCANSPOR

No matches in our record yet.