Trabzonspor v Beşiktaş prediction · Süper Lig

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 20:30

Trabzonspor 2–0 Beşiktaş TRABZONSPOR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Trabzonspor win~~44%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.463

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.582

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Trabzonspor win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Trabzonspor was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–26–30
1′KICK-OFF Trabzonspor v Beşiktaş
22′21′: O. Tufan on the scoresheet for Trabzonspor. 0–0 · 42–29–29
23′We published Trabzonspor at 44%. Our model now makes it 71%. 1–0 · 71–18–11
23′⚽ GOAL · 21' Trabzonspor 1–0 Beşiktaş · O. Tufan
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Trabzonspor win: 44% at kick-off, 71% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 72–18–10
33′🟨 YELLOW · 33' F. Miretti · Beşiktaş
34′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Fabinho · Trabzonspor
44′11 shots for Beşiktaş, 5 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 73–19–8
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Trabzonspor win: 44% at kick-off, 74% now
45′HALF-TIME Trabzonspor 1–0 Beşiktaş
46′SECOND HALF Trabzonspor 1–0 Beşiktaş
51′We published Trabzonspor at 44%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
61′🟨 YELLOW · 61' E. Topcu · Beşiktaş
64′13 shots for Beşiktaş, 8 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 79–18–4
65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Trabzonspor · On: T. Jabol-Folcarelli · Off: O. Tufan
66′We published Trabzonspor at 44%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
72′M. Salah scores for Trabzonspor on 71′. 1–0 · 83–15–2
74′We published Trabzonspor at 44%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Trabzonspor win: 44% at kick-off, 84% now
74′⚽ GOAL · 71' Trabzonspor 2–0 Beşiktaş · M. Salah (assist Franculino)
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Trabzonspor win: 44% at kick-off, 98% now
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Beşiktaş · On: K. Ouattara · Off: F. Miretti
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Beşiktaş · On: Oh Hyeon-Gyu · Off: V. Cerny
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Beşiktaş · On: I. Fakili · Off: R. Yilmaz
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Trabzonspor · On: N. Saviolo · Off: A. Simsir Corrected
83′We published Trabzonspor at 44%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' I. Fakili · Beşiktaş
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Beşiktaş · On: W. Ndidi · Off: J. Olaitan
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Trabzonspor · On: U. Nayir · Off: Franculino
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Trabzonspor · On: C. Ozkacar · Off: E. Muci
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Beşiktaş · On: K. Kayra Yilmaz · Off: S. Ozcan
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' K. Ouattara · Beşiktaş
FTFULL TIME Trabzonspor 2–0 Beşiktaş
FTTrabzonspor 2–0 Beşiktaş · Trabzonspor win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Trabzonspor are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Trabzonspor 44%, draw 26%, Beşiktaş 30%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Trabzonspor v BeşiktaşBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Trabzonspor win44%

Draw26%

Beşiktaş win30%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenuePapara Park

RefereeC. Aydin

Line-ups

Trabzonspor

4-2-3-1

Beşiktaş

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Trabzonspor

Beşiktaş

4Days since last match4

Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Beşiktaş	7	+8	15
5	Trabzonspor	7	+11	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Trabzonspor

4-2-3-1

24 A. Onana

20 W. Pina

27 C. Nwaiwu

15 S. Savic

55 S. Lopes Cabral

11 O. Tufan

6 Fabinho

10 M. Salah

7 E. Muci

58 A. Simsir

9 Franculino

Coach · Thomas Reis

Substitutes

1 · A. Yildirim

96 · E. Colak

4 · S. Akaydin

39 · C. Ozkacar

81 · K. Akcay

26 · T. Jabol-Folcarelli

14 · U. Nayir

77 · M. Mimaroglu

99 · A. Habesoglu

70 · N. Saviolo

Beşiktaş

4-1-4-1

1 A. Nubel

62 M. Murillo

12 E. Agbadou

53 E. Topcu

33 R. Yilmaz

6 S. Ozcan

18 V. Cerny

15 J. Olaitan

21 F. Miretti

19 L. Trossard

28 D. Vlahovic

Coach · Vincenzo Italiano

Substitutes

80 · D. Alemdar

22 · T. Bulut

35 · T. Djalo

11 · K. Ouattara

50 · U. Akdag

4 · W. Ndidi

8 · K. Kayra Yilmaz

9 · Oh Hyeon-Gyu

17 · E. Poku

29 · I. Fakili

Our number · trabzonspor winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

44% The market38%

Us44%

~~Market~~38%

We make Trabzonspor a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Trabzonspor v Beşiktaş~~1.66 – 1.32

~~Form · last six in Süper Lig this season · since 23 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 13 v 15~~5 v 4

~~The market · Trabzonspor win~~38% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Trabzonspor win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 31% to 38% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Trabzonspor win	44%	38%	+6
Draw	26%	25%	+1
Beşiktaş win	30%	37%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	57%	62%	−5
Both teams to score	60%	65%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	80%	82%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	35%	42%	−7
Trabzonspor or draw	70%	63%	+7
Trabzonspor clean sheet	27%	–	–
Beşiktaş clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 6.3 5.9 4.5 1 7.6 11.9 7.2 3.2 2 7.0 9.0 5.9 2.6 3 3.9 5.0 3.3 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Trabzonspor down, Beşiktaş across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,820 Süper Lig matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Süper Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.2% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Trabzonspor at home: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Beşiktaş away: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Trabzonspor, 1.32 for Beşiktaş. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 19 Oct 17:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BES 1–2 TRA · TRA 3–3 BES · BES 2–1 TRA · TRA 1–1 BES

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Süper Lig this season · since 23 Aug

TRABZONSPOR

WLWLWW2–1 · 1–2 · 5–0 · 0–1 · 4–0 · 3–0

BEŞIKTAŞ

LWWWLW0–1 · 6–2 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 2–3 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Galatasaray	8	+6	19
2	Amed	8	+9	17
3	Fenerbahçe	8	+16	16
4	Beşiktaş	7	+8	15
5	Trabzonspor	7	+11	13
6	Çorum FK	8	+5	13
7	Kasımpaşa	8	+3	13
8	Kocaelispor	8	+1	12
9	Alanyaspor	8	−1	12
10	Başakşehir	8	0	11
11	Erzurumspor FK	8	−6	11
12	Rizespor	8	−3	10
13	Göztepe	8	+1	9
14	Gaziantep FK	8	−4	8
15	Gençlerbirliği S.K.	8	−9	8
16	Konyaspor	8	−5	5
17	Samsunspor	8	−12	4
18	Eyüpspor	8	−20	3