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Samsunspor v Trabzonspor

Samsunspor

0–3Full time

Trabzonspor

Süper Lig · SAT 10 OCT · Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

Samsunspor 0–3 Trabzonspor TRABZONSPOR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Trabzonspor win~~41%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.524

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.400

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Trabzonspor win at 41%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Trabzonspor 41% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 33–25–42
2′KICK-OFF Samsunspor v Trabzonspor
7′🟨 YELLOW · 7' L. Tomasson · Samsunspor
27′SUBSTITUTION · 27' Samsunspor · On: Y. Kayan · Off: C. Yuksel
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Samsunspor 0–1 Trabzonspor
27′⚽ GOAL · 28' Samsunspor 0–1 Trabzonspor
28′28′ and it is 0–1: E. Muci on the scoresheet for Trabzonspor. 0–1 · 11–20–69
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Trabzonspor win: 41% at kick-off, 69% now
30′We said Trabzonspor at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 69%. 0–1 · 10–20–69
33′We said Trabzonspor at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 10–20–70
34′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 10–20–70
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Samsunspor 0–2 Trabzonspor · E. Muci
37′⚽ GOAL · 39' Samsunspor 0–2 Trabzonspor · C. Nwaiwu
38′Trabzonspor ahead on 39′ through C. Nwaiwu. 0–2. 0–2 · 2–7–91
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Trabzonspor win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
39′⚽ GOAL · 40' Samsunspor 0–2 Trabzonspor · Franculino
40′Franculino scores for Trabzonspor on 40′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–2–98
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Samsunspor 0–3 Trabzonspor · Franculino
41′We said Trabzonspor at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 0–3 · 0–2–98
41′🟨 YELLOW · 7' L. Tomasson · Samsunspor
41′SUBSTITUTION · 27' Samsunspor · On: Y. Kayan · Off: C. Yuksel
41′⚽ GOAL · 28' Samsunspor 0–3 Trabzonspor · E. Muci (assist M. Eskihellac)
41′⚽ GOAL · 39' Samsunspor 0–3 Trabzonspor · C. Nwaiwu
41′⚽ GOAL · 40' Samsunspor 0–3 Trabzonspor · Franculino (assist M. Salah)
42′Trabzonspor are down to ten from 44′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–3 · 0–1–98
42′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Samsunspor
42′🟥 RED CARD · 44' Trabzonspor
43′🟥 RED CARD · 43' Trabzonspor
45′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–1–98
45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' E. Watt · Samsunspor
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Trabzonspor · On: O. Tufan · Off: E. Muci
45′SECOND HALF Samsunspor 0–3 Trabzonspor
46′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Samsunspor
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Trabzonspor · On: O. Tufan · Off: E. Muci
69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Samsunspor · On: O. Ohlenschlaeger · Off: E. Watt
69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Samsunspor · On: E. Tavsan · Off: T. Coulibaly
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Trabzonspor · On: S. Lopes Cabral · Off: M. Eskihellac
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Trabzonspor · On: C. Ozkacar · Off: Franculino
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Trabzonspor · On: P. Onuachu · Off: M. Salah
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Samsunspor · On: A. Sousa · Off: J. Mendes
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Trabzonspor · On: T. Jabol-Folcarelli · Off: A. Simsir
FTFULL TIME Samsunspor 0–3 Trabzonspor
FTSamsunspor 0–3 Trabzonspor · Trabzonspor win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Samsunspor win32%

Draw27%

Trabzonspor win41%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

Venue · Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu

Referee · O. Cakir

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Samsunspor

4-2-3-1

1 O. Kocuk

2 J. Mendes

22 Y. E. Cift

34 G. Guarino

17 L. Tomasson

5 C. Yuksel

4 E. Watt

10 T. Coulibaly

42 A. Sekongo

11 E. Kilinc

18 M. Bayo

Coach · Thorsten Fink

Substitutes

25 · B. Bayazit

16 · S. Erakovic

29 · M. Tan

3 · I. Drapinski

20 · Y. Kayan

8 · S. Onur

19 · O. Ohlenschlaeger

77 · A. Sousa

7 · E. Tavsan

14 · F. Kaya

Trabzonspor

4-2-3-1

24 A. Onana

20 W. Pina

27 C. Nwaiwu

15 S. Savic

19 M. Eskihellac

57 M. Kabasakal

6 Fabinho

10 M. Salah

7 E. Muci

58 A. Simsir

9 Franculino

Coach · Thomas Reis

Substitutes

1 · A. Yildirim

4 · S. Akaydin

39 · C. Ozkacar

55 · S. Lopes Cabral

11 · O. Tufan

26 · T. Jabol-Folcarelli

77 · M. Mimaroglu

61 · C. Canak

70 · N. Saviolo

30 · P. Onuachu

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Samsunspor

4-2-3-1

1 O. Kocuk

2 J. Mendes

22 Y. E. Cift

34 G. Guarino

17 L. Tomasson

5 C. Yuksel

4 E. Watt

10 T. Coulibaly

42 A. Sekongo

11 E. Kilinc

18 M. Bayo

Coach · Thorsten Fink

Substitutes

25 · B. Bayazit

16 · S. Erakovic

29 · M. Tan

3 · I. Drapinski

20 · Y. Kayan

8 · S. Onur

19 · O. Ohlenschlaeger

77 · A. Sousa

7 · E. Tavsan

14 · F. Kaya

Trabzonspor

4-2-3-1

24 A. Onana

20 W. Pina

27 C. Nwaiwu

15 S. Savic

19 M. Eskihellac

57 M. Kabasakal

6 Fabinho

10 M. Salah

7 E. Muci

58 A. Simsir

9 Franculino

Coach · Thomas Reis

Substitutes

1 · A. Yildirim

4 · S. Akaydin

39 · C. Ozkacar

55 · S. Lopes Cabral

11 · O. Tufan

26 · T. Jabol-Folcarelli

77 · M. Mimaroglu

61 · C. Canak

70 · N. Saviolo

30 · P. Onuachu

Our number · trabzonspor winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

41% The market48%

Us41%

~~Market~~48%

We make Trabzonspor a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · trabzonspor win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Samsunspor win	32%	26%	+6
Draw	27%	26%	+1
Trabzonspor win	41%	48%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	54%	57%	−3
Both teams to score	57%	59%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	78%	79%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	32%	37%	−5
Samsunspor or draw	59%	52%	+7
Samsunspor clean sheet	22%	–	–
Trabzonspor clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 7.0 7.9 6.7 3.4 1 6.9 12.4 8.6 4.4 2 5.2 7.6 5.7 2.9 3 2.3 3.4 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Samsunspor down, Trabzonspor across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,804 Süper Lig matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Süper Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.4% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 3.17 goals a meeting; 5 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Samsunspor at home: 2.17 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Trabzonspor away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for Samsunspor, 1.52 for Trabzonspor. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 13:40. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.17

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 6

~~Both scored~~5 of 6

~~Last meetings~~SAM 0–3 TRA · TRA 1–1 SAM · TRA 2–2 SAM · SAM 2–1 TRA

Form · last six in Süper Lig

SAMSUNSPOR

DWLLLL3–3 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–5 · 0–1

TRABZONSPOR

DWLWLW1–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 5–0 · 0–1 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Galatasaray	7	+5	16
2	Amed	6	+8	13
3	Beşiktaş	6	+7	12
4	Kocaelispor	6	+3	12
5	Alanyaspor	6	+2	11
6	Fenerbahçe	6	+10	10
7	Trabzonspor	6	+8	10
8	Rizespor	6	+1	10
9	Kasımpaşa	7	0	10
10	Gaziantep FK	6	0	8
11	Çorum FK	6	+1	7
12	Başakşehir	6	−1	7
13	Gençlerbirliği S.K.	6	−8	7
14	Erzurumspor FK	6	−8	7
15	Konyaspor	6	−4	4
16	Samsunspor	6	−6	4
17	Göztepe	6	−4	3
18	Eyüpspor	6	−14	3