Samsunspor v Amed prediction · Süper Lig

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:48

Samsunspor 1–2 Amed SAMSUNSPOR WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Samsunspor win~~38%

~~The market said~~31%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.638

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.514

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 36 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Samsunspor win at 38%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Samsunspor 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–27–35
2′KICK-OFF Samsunspor v Amed
3′🟨 YELLOW · 3' D. Saba · Amed
20′We said Samsunspor at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 66%. 1–0 · 66–20–14
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Samsunspor 1–0 Amed
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Samsunspor win: 38% at kick-off, 66% now
22′21′: L. Tomasson on the scoresheet for Samsunspor, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 66–20–14
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 67–21–12
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Samsunspor win: 38% at kick-off, 68% now
34′Amed have had 9 attempts to 1 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 68–21–11
36′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Samsunspor
37′🟥 RED CARD · 37' Samsunspor
38′Samsunspor are down to ten from 38′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 69–21–11
38′🟨 YELLOW · 38' A. Sousa · Samsunspor
43′We said Samsunspor at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–9
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Amed
45′HALF-TIME Samsunspor 1–0 Amed
45′SECOND HALF Samsunspor 1–0 Amed
46′🟨 YELLOW · 37' B. Bayazit · Samsunspor
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' Y. E. Cift · Samsunspor
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Amed · On: M. Diagne · Off: F. Soyalp
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Amed · On: A. T. Bulbul · Off: M. Khalil
48′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Amed
49′12 shots for Amed, 2 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 71–21–8
60′We said Samsunspor at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–5
60′🟥 RED CARD · 60' Amed
61′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Amed
62′Samsunspor have ten men and Amed ten after the red cards. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 75–20–5
64′16 shots for Amed, 4 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 76–19–4
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Samsunspor win: 38% at kick-off, 78% now
70′We said Samsunspor at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Samsunspor · On: Y. E. Cift · Off: I. Drapinski
73′We said Samsunspor at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–62–18
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Samsunspor 1–1 Amed
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Samsunspor win: 38% at kick-off, 19% now
73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Draw is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Samsunspor win 82%)
75′Amed level it on 73′ through G. Orban. 1–1. 1–1 · 18–65–17
75′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Samsunspor · On: E. Tavsan · Off: T. Coulibaly
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Samsunspor win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
79′We said Samsunspor at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–72–13
79′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Amed · On: G. Gul · Off: E. Krasniqi
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Samsunspor · On: S. Onur · Off: A. Sekongo
83′We said Samsunspor at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
83′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 1–9–90
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Samsunspor 1–2 Amed
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Samsunspor win: 38% at kick-off, 1% now
83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' Amed win is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Draw 79%)
84′A goal for Amed on 84′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 0–8–91
87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Samsunspor · On: S. Jarju · Off: G. Guarino
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Amed · On: M. Yesil · Off: S. Ballet
89′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Samsunspor · On: M. Tan · Off: J. Mendes
90′1–2 at the end. Our 38% on Samsunspor misses, and the record keeps it. 1–2 · 0–0–100
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Amed · On: M. Acer · Off: D. Saba
91′🟨 YELLOW · 89' E. Tavsan · Samsunspor
FTFULL TIME Samsunspor 1–2 Amed
FTSamsunspor 1–2 Amed · Samsunspor win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Samsunspor just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Samsunspor 38%, draw 26%, Amed 35%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Samsunspor v AmedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Samsunspor win38%

Draw26%

Amed win35%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueSamsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu

RefereeK. Saglam

Line-ups

Samsunspor

4-2-3-1

Amed

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Samsunspor

Amed

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Süper Lig

Last match: 17 Oct · Süper Lig

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Amed	8	+9	17
17	Samsunspor	8	−12	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Samsunspor

4-2-3-1

25 Bilal Bayazit

34 Gabriele Guarino

16 Strahinja Eraković

3 Igor Drapiński

17 Logi Tomasson

2 Josafat Mendes

4 Elliot Watt

10 Tanguy Coulibaly

77 Afonso Sousa

42 Antoine Sekongo

18 Mohamed Bayo

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · Okan Kocuk

22 · Yunus Emre Çift

29 · Haluk Mustafa Tan

23 · Enes Albak

19 · Oskar Øhlenschlaeger

20 · Yalçın Kayan

15 · Jaures Assoumou

8 · Samed Onur

30 · Saikuba Jarju

7 · Elayis Tavsan

Amed

4-2-3-1

40 Alban Lafont

7 Ermal Krasniqi

5 Lumbardh Dellova

4 David Robert Bates

17 Umut Meraş

22 Rayan Raveloson

8 Furkan Soyalp

10 Samuel Ballet

91 Dia Saba

74 Mohamed Khalil

99 Gift Orban

Coach · –

Substitutes

27 · Burak Bozan

21 · Mehmet Yeşil

47 · Kahraman Demirtaş

81 · Ali Turap Bülbül

3 · Miraç Acer

33 · Amadou Cissé

93 · Rayan Lutin

18 · Gökhan Gül

6 · Cem Üstündag

45 · Mbaye Diagne

Our number · samsunspor winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off

38% The market31%

Us38%

~~Market~~31%

We make Samsunspor a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 31%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Samsunspor v Amed~~1.50 – 1.42

~~Form · last six in Süper Lig this season · since 30 Aug~~W0 D0 L6 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 4 v 17~~17 v 2

~~The market · Samsunspor win~~31% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Samsunspor win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 31% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Samsunspor win	38%	31%	+7
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Amed win	35%	42%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	55%	52%	+3
Both teams to score	59%	56%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	79%	75%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	33%	31%	+2
Samsunspor or draw	65%	58%	+7
Samsunspor clean sheet	25%	–	–
Amed clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 6.7 6.9 5.5 2.6 1 7.2 12.3 8.0 3.8 2 6.1 8.3 5.9 2.8 3 3.1 4.2 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Samsunspor down, Amed across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,822 Süper Lig matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Süper Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.9% of games this season, across 73 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Samsunspor at home: 1.83 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Amed away: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Samsunspor, 1.42 for Amed. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Süper Lig this season · since 30 Aug

SAMSUNSPOR

LLLLLL0–2 · 0–1 · 1–5 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 1–4

AMED

WDWWDW2–1 · 2–2 · 5–0 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Galatasaray	8	+6	19
2	Amed	8	+9	17
3	Fenerbahçe	8	+16	16
4	Trabzonspor	8	+13	16
5	Kasımpaşa	9	+4	16
6	Beşiktaş	8	+6	15
7	Kocaelispor	9	+2	15
8	Çorum FK	8	+5	13
9	Alanyaspor	9	−2	12
10	Başakşehir	8	0	11
11	Erzurumspor FK	8	−6	11
12	Rizespor	8	−3	10
13	Göztepe	8	+1	9
14	Gaziantep FK	8	−4	8
15	Gençlerbirliği S.K.	8	−9	8
16	Konyaspor	8	−5	5
17	Samsunspor	8	−12	4
18	Eyüpspor	9	−21	3