Rizespor v Trabzonspor prediction · Süper Lig

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

RizesporDrawTrabzonspor

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Trabzonspor 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Trabzonspor are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rizespor 29%, draw 25%, Trabzonspor 45%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Rizespor v TrabzonsporBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Rizespor win29%

Draw25%

Trabzonspor win45%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 9

RefereeH. U. Meler

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rizespor

Trabzonspor

10Days since last match4

Last match: 16 Oct · Süper Lig

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

1Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Trabzonspor	8	+13	16
12	Rizespor	8	−3	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · trabzonspor winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

45% The market49%

Us45%

~~Market~~49%

We make Trabzonspor a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rizespor v Trabzonspor~~1.31 – 1.68

~~Form · last six in Süper Lig this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 16~~12 v 4

~~The market · Trabzonspor win~~49% · ours 45%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Trabzonspor win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rizespor win	29%	27%	+2
Draw	25%	25%	0
Trabzonspor win	45%	49%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	57%	60%	−3
Both teams to score	59%	62%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	80%	81%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	35%	39%	−4
Rizespor or draw	55%	51%	+4
Rizespor clean sheet	19%	–	–
Trabzonspor clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.2 7.6 7.1 4.0 1 5.8 11.8 9.0 5.0 2.2 2 4.4 7.1 5.8 3.3 3 3.2 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rizespor down, Trabzonspor across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,825 Süper Lig matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Süper Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.2% of games this season, across 76 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.44 goals a meeting; 6 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rizespor at home: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Trabzonspor away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Rizespor, 1.68 for Trabzonspor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.44

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 9

~~Both scored~~6 of 9

~~Last meetings~~TRA 1–0 RIZ · RIZ 1–2 TRA · TRA 2–0 RIZ · TRA 5–2 RIZ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Süper Lig this season · since 29 Aug

RIZESPOR

WLWDLL2–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 1–2

TRABZONSPOR

LWLWWW1–2 · 5–0 · 0–1 · 4–0 · 3–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Amed	9	+10	20
2	Galatasaray	8	+6	19
3	Fenerbahçe	8	+16	16
4	Trabzonspor	8	+13	16
5	Kasımpaşa	9	+4	16
6	Beşiktaş	8	+6	15
7	Kocaelispor	9	+2	15
8	Erzurumspor FK	9	−4	14
9	Çorum FK	8	+5	13
10	Alanyaspor	9	−2	12
11	Başakşehir	8	0	11
12	Rizespor	8	−3	10
13	Göztepe	8	+1	9
14	Gaziantep FK	9	−6	8
15	Gençlerbirliği S.K.	8	−9	8
16	Konyaspor	8	−5	5
17	Samsunspor	9	−13	4
18	Eyüpspor	9	−21	3