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Rizespor v Fenerbahçe

Rizespor

0–3Full time

Fenerbahçe

Süper Lig · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

Rizespor 0–3 Fenerbahçe FENERBAHÇE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Fenerbahçe win~~55%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.303

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.294

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 45 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Fenerbahçe win at 55%.
1′Much as we predicted: Fenerbahçe was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 23–21–56
7′Much as we predicted: Fenerbahçe was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 23–22–55
12′M. Asensio scores for Fenerbahçe on 12′ — 0–0. 0–0 · 23–23–54
13′M. Asensio scores for Fenerbahçe on 12′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 9–14–77
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Fenerbahçe win: 55% at kick-off, 54% now
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Fenerbahçe win: 55% at kick-off, 77% now
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Fenerbahçe win: 55% at kick-off, 77% now
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Fenerbahçe win: 55% at kick-off, 54% now
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Fenerbahçe win: 55% at kick-off, 77% now
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Fenerbahçe win: 55% at kick-off, 54% now
16′We published Fenerbahçe at 55%. Our model now makes it 77%. 0–1 · 8–15–77
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Fenerbahçe win: 55% at kick-off, 77% now
17′We published Fenerbahçe at 55%. Our model now makes it 77%. 0–1 · 8–15–77
31′Goals are coming at about the 3.4 we expected. 0–1 · 7–16–77
32′Goals are coming at about the 3.4 we expected. 0–1 · 7–16–77
45′HALF-TIME Rizespor 0–1 Fenerbahçe
45′SECOND HALF Rizespor 0–1 Fenerbahçe
47′Rizespor have had 10.0 attempts to 3.0 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 6–16–78
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Fenerbahçe win: 55% at kick-off, 78% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Fenerbahçe win: 55% at kick-off, 78% now
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Fenerbahçe win: 55% at kick-off, 78% now
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Fenerbahçe win: 55% at kick-off, 78% now
53′Rizespor have had 10.0 attempts to 3.0 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 6–16–78
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Fenerbahçe · On: I. Kahveci · Off: M. Asensio
71′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Rizespor · On: E. Bulut · Off: A. Mebude
71′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Rizespor · On: C. Bozdogan · Off: Q. Laci
79′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Fenerbahçe · On: R. Lukaku · Off: V. Muriqi
79′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Fenerbahçe · On: O. Aydin · Off: M. Greenwood
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Fenerbahçe · On: O. Aydin · Off: M. Greenwood
81′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Rizespor · On: G. Borrelli · Off: T. Antalyali
83′⚽ GOAL · 84' Rizespor 0–1 Fenerbahçe
84′⚽ GOAL · 12' Rizespor 0–1 Fenerbahçe · M. Asensio (assist K. Akturkoglu)
84′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Fenerbahçe · On: I. Kahveci · Off: M. Asensio
84′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Rizespor · On: I. Doicaru · Off: A. Kutucu
84′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Rizespor · On: E. Bulut · Off: A. Mebude
84′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Rizespor · On: C. Bozdogan · Off: Q. Laci
84′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Fenerbahçe · On: R. Lukaku · Off: V. Muriqi
84′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Fenerbahçe · On: O. Aydin · Off: M. Greenwood
84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Rizespor · On: G. Borrelli · Off: T. Antalyali
84′⚽ GOAL · 83' Rizespor 0–1 Fenerbahçe · I. Kahveci (assist O. Aydin)
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Rizespor 0–2 Fenerbahçe · I. Kahveci
86′⚽ GOAL · 12' Rizespor 0–2 Fenerbahçe · M. Asensio (assist K. Akturkoglu)
86′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Fenerbahçe · On: I. Kahveci · Off: M. Asensio
86′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Rizespor · On: I. Doicaru · Off: A. Kutucu
86′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Rizespor · On: E. Bulut · Off: A. Mebude
86′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Rizespor · On: C. Bozdogan · Off: Q. Laci
86′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Fenerbahçe · On: R. Lukaku · Off: V. Muriqi
86′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Fenerbahçe · On: O. Aydin · Off: M. Greenwood
86′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Rizespor · On: G. Borrelli · Off: T. Antalyali
86′⚽ GOAL · 83' Rizespor 0–2 Fenerbahçe · I. Kahveci (assist O. Aydin)
86′⚽ GOAL · 87' Rizespor 0–2 Fenerbahçe · O. Aydin (assist R. Lukaku)
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Rizespor 0–3 Fenerbahçe · O. Aydin
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Fenerbahçe · On: K. Peprah · Off: K. Akturkoglu
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Fenerbahçe · On: I. Yuksek · Off: M. Guendouzi
FTFULL TIME Rizespor 0–3 Fenerbahçe
FTRizespor 0–3 Fenerbahçe · Fenerbahçe win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Rizespor win23%

Draw22%

Fenerbahçe win55%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:00

Referee · O. Ergun

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Rizespor

4-1-4-1

75 Y. Fofana

54 M. Pala

4 A. Mocsi

93 M. Sagnan

17 Z. Ariss

14 T. Antalyali

11 A. Mebude

10 I. Olawoyin

20 Q. Laci

23 A. Kutucu

9 A. Sowe

Coach · Recep Ucar

Substitutes

30 · Z. Gorgen

5 · T. T. Sanuc

37 · T. Sahin

21 · S. Bakayoko

19 · U. Erdem

6 · M. Diakite

70 · C. Bozdogan

79 · I. Doicaru

29 · G. Borrelli

99 · E. Bulut

Fenerbahçe

4-2-3-1

31 Ederson

27 N. Semedo

37 M. Skriniar

15 N. Ake

3 A. Brown

91 N. Kante

6 M. Guendouzi

11 M. Greenwood

10 M. Asensio

7 K. Akturkoglu

19 V. Muriqi

Coach · Ismail Kartal

Substitutes

34 · M. Gunok

21 · K. Peprah

22 · L. Mercan

8 · M. Yandas

5 · I. Yuksek

28 · B. Elmaz

9 · R. Lukaku

17 · I. Kahveci

70 · O. Aydin

45 · D. Nene

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Rizespor

4-1-4-1

75 Y. Fofana

54 M. Pala

4 A. Mocsi

93 M. Sagnan

17 Z. Ariss

14 T. Antalyali

11 A. Mebude

10 I. Olawoyin

20 Q. Laci

23 A. Kutucu

9 A. Sowe

Coach · Recep Ucar

Substitutes

30 · Z. Gorgen

5 · T. T. Sanuc

37 · T. Sahin

21 · S. Bakayoko

19 · U. Erdem

6 · M. Diakite

70 · C. Bozdogan

79 · I. Doicaru

29 · G. Borrelli

99 · E. Bulut

Fenerbahçe

4-2-3-1

31 Ederson

27 N. Semedo

37 M. Skriniar

15 N. Ake

3 A. Brown

91 N. Kante

6 M. Guendouzi

11 M. Greenwood

10 M. Asensio

7 K. Akturkoglu

19 V. Muriqi

Coach · Ismail Kartal

Substitutes

34 · M. Gunok

21 · K. Peprah

22 · L. Mercan

8 · M. Yandas

5 · I. Yuksek

28 · B. Elmaz

9 · R. Lukaku

17 · I. Kahveci

70 · O. Aydin

45 · D. Nene

Our number · fenerbahçe winPublished 10 Oct 17:01

55% The market56%

Us55%

~~Market~~56%

We make Fenerbahçe a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–2.1.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rizespor win	23%	21%	+2
Draw	22%	23%	−1
Fenerbahçe win	55%	56%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	65%	60%	+5
Both teams to score	63%	59%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	85%	80%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	44%	38%	+5
Rizespor or draw	45%	44%	+1
Rizespor clean sheet	13%	–	–
Fenerbahçe clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 4.4 6.5 7.4 5.2 2.8 1 3.8 9.9 9.3 6.5 3.5 2 2.9 5.8 5.9 4.1 2.2 3 2.5 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rizespor down, Fenerbahçe across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,804 Süper Lig matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Süper Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.4% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 5.00 goals a meeting; 8 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rizespor at home: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Fenerbahçe away: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Rizespor, 2.10 for Fenerbahçe. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 16:50. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~FEN 2–2 RIZ · RIZ 2–5 FEN · FEN 3–2 RIZ · RIZ 0–5 FEN

Form · last six in Süper Lig

RIZESPOR

WLWLWD1–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 2–2

FENERBAHÇE

LWWLDW1–2 · 4–2 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 8–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Galatasaray	7	+5	16
2	Amed	6	+8	13
3	Beşiktaş	6	+7	12
4	Kocaelispor	6	+3	12
5	Alanyaspor	6	+2	11
6	Fenerbahçe	6	+10	10
7	Trabzonspor	6	+8	10
8	Rizespor	6	+1	10
9	Kasımpaşa	7	0	10
10	Gaziantep FK	6	0	8
11	Çorum FK	6	+1	7
12	Başakşehir	6	−1	7
13	Gençlerbirliği S.K.	6	−8	7
14	Erzurumspor FK	6	−8	7
15	Konyaspor	6	−4	4
16	Samsunspor	6	−6	4
17	Göztepe	6	−4	3
18	Eyüpspor	6	−14	3