Konyaspor v Başakşehir prediction · Süper Lig

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 14:05

Konyaspor 0–0 Başakşehir BAŞAKŞEHIR WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Başakşehir win~~39%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.785

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.798

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Başakşehir win at 39%.
1′KICK-OFF Konyaspor v Başakşehir
2′Little has changed for our model: Başakşehir 39% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 34–26–40
9′Little has changed for our model: Başakşehir 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 33–27–39
22′SUBSTITUTION · 23' Konyaspor · On: C. Awaziem · Off: A. Demirbag Corrected
24′SUBSTITUTION · 23' Konyaspor · On: C. Awaziem · Off: A. Demirbag Corrected
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Başakşehir win 33%)
45′SECOND HALF Konyaspor 0–0 Başakşehir
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Başakşehir win 33%)
56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Başakşehir · On: H. Gureler · Off: E. Bayram Corrected
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Başakşehir · On: Y. Sari · Off: A. Skov Olsen Corrected
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Başakşehir · On: O. Sahiner · Off: S. Kharebashvili Corrected
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Konyaspor · On: E. Bardhi · Off: R. Toth Corrected
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Başakşehir · On: A. Fayzullaev · Off: B. Yildirim Corrected
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Başakşehir · On: J. Kaluzinski · Off: I. Brnic Corrected
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Konyaspor · On: E. Colley · Off: D. Goncalves Corrected
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Konyaspor · On: Mostafa Mohamed · Off: J. Muleka Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 23' Konyaspor · On: C. Awaziem · Off: A. Demirbag Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Başakşehir · On: H. Gureler · Off: E. Bayram Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Başakşehir · On: Y. Sari · Off: A. Skov Olsen Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Başakşehir · On: O. Sahiner · Off: S. Kharebashvili Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Konyaspor · On: E. Bardhi · Off: R. Toth Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Başakşehir · On: A. Fayzullaev · Off: B. Yildirim Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Başakşehir · On: J. Kaluzinski · Off: I. Brnic Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Konyaspor · On: E. Colley · Off: D. Goncalves Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Konyaspor · On: Mostafa Mohamed · Off: J. Muleka Corrected
FTFULL TIME Konyaspor 0–0 Başakşehir
FTKonyaspor 0–0 Başakşehir · Başakşehir win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Konyaspor win33%

Draw28%

Başakşehir win39%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:30

VenueKonya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium

RefereeB. Kolak

Line-ups

Konyaspor

4-2-3-1

Başakşehir

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Konyaspor

Başakşehir

23Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Başakşehir	6	−1	7
15	Konyaspor	6	−4	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Konyaspor

4-2-3-1

13 B. Gungordu

5 U. Yazgili

22 R. Baniya

4 A. Demirbag

26 A. Masuaku

8 M. Jevtovic

77 M. Ibrahimoglu

9 D. Turuc

66 R. Toth

7 D. Goncalves

11 J. Muleka

Coach · Ilhan Palut

Substitutes

1 · D. Ertas

2 · A. Oguz

17 · Y. Andzouana

15 · C. Awaziem

3 · A. Bosluk

41 · Da Mata

10 · E. Bardhi

42 · Mostafa Mohamed

19 · E. Colley

45 · E. Bars

Başakşehir

4-2-3-1

16 M. Sengezer

33 M. Karbownik

23 E. Bayram

27 O. Ba

38 S. Kharebashvili

8 O. Kemen

20 U. Gunes

70 A. Skov Olsen

14 E. Shomurodov

77 I. Brnic

91 B. Yildirim

Coach · Nuri Sahin

Substitutes

98 · D. Dilmen

42 · O. Sahiner

15 · H. Gureler

6 · O. Bulut

19 · B. Ozcan

18 · J. Kaluzinski

4 · O. Ergun

7 · Y. Sari

11 · A. Fayzullaev

17 · U. Bozok

Our number · başakşehir winPublished 11 Oct 11:44

39% The market35%

Us39%

~~Market~~35%

We make Başakşehir a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · başakşehir win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 37% to 35% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Konyaspor win	33%	38%	−5
Draw	28%	27%	+1
Başakşehir win	39%	35%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	50%	54%	−4
Both teams to score	55%	58%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	76%	76%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	28%	33%	−5
Konyaspor or draw	61%	65%	−5
Konyaspor clean sheet	25%	–	–
Başakşehir clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 8.1 8.7 6.8 3.3 1 7.7 13.1 8.4 4.0 2 5.5 7.6 5.3 2.5 3 2.4 3.3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Konyaspor down, Başakşehir across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,808 Süper Lig matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Süper Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.6% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Konyaspor at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Başakşehir away: 0.83 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Konyaspor, 1.41 for Başakşehir. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 11:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BAS 2–0 KON · KON 2–1 BAS · BAS 1–0 KON · KON 3–2 BAS

Form · last six in Süper Lig

KONYASPOR

LLLLWD0–1 · 2–4 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–0

BAŞAKŞEHIR

WLDLLW2–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 0–5 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Galatasaray	7	+5	16
2	Amed	7	+8	14
3	Fenerbahçe	7	+13	13
4	Trabzonspor	7	+11	13
5	Beşiktaş	6	+7	12
6	Kocaelispor	6	+3	12
7	Alanyaspor	7	+2	12
8	Kasımpaşa	7	0	10
9	Rizespor	7	−2	10
10	Gaziantep FK	6	0	8
11	Gençlerbirliği S.K.	7	−8	8
12	Erzurumspor FK	7	−8	8
13	Çorum FK	6	+1	7
14	Başakşehir	6	−1	7
15	Konyaspor	6	−4	4
16	Samsunspor	7	−9	4
17	Göztepe	6	−4	3
18	Eyüpspor	6	−14	3