Kocaelispor v Rizespor prediction · Süper Lig

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

KocaelisporDrawRizespor

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Kocaelispor 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kocaelispor are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kocaelispor 41%, draw 30%, Rizespor 29%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Kocaelispor v RizesporBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Kocaelispor win41%

Draw30%

Rizespor win29%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueTurka Arac Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kocaelispor

Rizespor

8Days since last match15

Last match: 23 Oct · Süper Lig

Last match: 16 Oct · Süper Lig

2Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Kocaelispor	9	+2	15
12	Rizespor	8	−3	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kocaelispor winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Kocaelispor a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kocaelispor v Rizespor~~1.29 – 1.03

~~Form · last six in Süper Lig this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 15 v 10~~7 v 12

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kocaelispor win	41%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Rizespor win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Kocaelispor or draw	71%	–	–
Kocaelispor clean sheet	36%	–	–
Rizespor clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.9%

0123450 11.1 9.1 5.2 1 11.6 13.9 6.6 2.3 2 8.1 8.2 4.2 3 3.5 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kocaelispor down, Rizespor across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,825 Süper Lig matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Süper Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.2% of games this season, across 76 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kocaelispor at home: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Rizespor away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Kocaelispor, 1.03 for Rizespor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~RIZ 2–0 KOC · KOC 1–1 RIZ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Süper Lig this season · since 29 Aug

KOCAELISPOR

WLWLLW1–0 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 2–1

RIZESPOR

WLWDLL2–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Amed	9	+10	20
2	Galatasaray	8	+6	19
3	Fenerbahçe	8	+16	16
4	Trabzonspor	8	+13	16
5	Kasımpaşa	9	+4	16
6	Beşiktaş	8	+6	15
7	Kocaelispor	9	+2	15
8	Erzurumspor FK	9	−4	14
9	Çorum FK	8	+5	13
10	Alanyaspor	9	−2	12
11	Başakşehir	8	0	11
12	Rizespor	8	−3	10
13	Göztepe	8	+1	9
14	Gaziantep FK	9	−6	8
15	Gençlerbirliği S.K.	8	−9	8
16	Konyaspor	8	−5	5
17	Samsunspor	9	−13	4
18	Eyüpspor	9	−21	3