Kocaelispor v Göztepe prediction · Süper Lig

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Kocaelispor 1–2 Göztepe KOCAELISPOR WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kocaelispor win~~36%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.659

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.576

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kocaelispor win at 36%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Kocaelispor 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 36–31–34
1′KICK-OFF Kocaelispor v Göztepe
23′We said Kocaelispor at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 0–1 · 12–21–67
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Kocaelispor 0–1 Göztepe
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Kocaelispor win: 36% at kick-off, 12% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Göztepe win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Kocaelispor win 12%)
24′A goal for Göztepe on 24′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 12–21–67
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 0–1 · 10–22–68
35′We said Kocaelispor at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–22–69
45′SECOND HALF Kocaelispor 0–1 Göztepe
46′HALF-TIME Kocaelispor 0–1 Göztepe
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Kocaelispor · On: F. Aye · Off: M. Altunbas
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Kocaelispor · On: R. Rivas · Off: U. Yildiz
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Kocaelispor win: 36% at kick-off, 6% now
56′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Kocaelispor
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Kocaelispor · On: T. Gulliksen · Off: M. Cinan
59′We said Kocaelispor at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–19–76
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Kocaelispor · On: M. Baku · Off: D. Agyei
77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Göztepe
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Kocaelispor 0–2 Göztepe
78′Göztepe score on 77′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
79′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Göztepe
81′3 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 1–9–90
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Kocaelispor 1–2 Göztepe
82′Kocaelispor find the net on 82′. 1–2. 1–2 · 0–8–91
88′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Göztepe · On: S. Armstrong · Off: Andre Henrique
88′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Göztepe · On: Janderson · Off: Juan
89′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Kocaelispor · On: M. Maglica · Off: M. Susoho
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Göztepe · On: E. Bekiroglu · Off: A. Antunes
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Kocaelispor
94′1–2 at the end. Our 36% on Kocaelispor misses, and the record keeps it. 1–2 · 0–0–100
94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Göztepe · On: F. Anjorin · Off: Rhaldney
94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Göztepe · On: E. Yildirim · Off: N. Miroshi
FTFULL TIME Kocaelispor 1–2 Göztepe
FTKocaelispor 1–2 Göztepe · Kocaelispor win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Kocaelispor just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Kocaelispor 36%, draw 31%, Göztepe 34%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Kocaelispor v GöztepeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Kocaelispor win36%

Draw31%

Göztepe win34%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueTurka Arac Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu

RefereeA. Akarsu

Line-ups

Kocaelispor

4-3-3

Göztepe

3-4-1-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kocaelispor

Göztepe

7Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Süper Lig

Last match: 12 Oct · Süper Lig

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Kocaelispor	7	+2	12
15	Göztepe	7	0	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Kocaelispor

4-3-3

83 S. Oztasdelen

22 U. Yildiz

2 A. Dijksteel

5 E. Ortakaya

3 M. Cinan

20 M. Susoho

14 Show

10 B. Kutlu

11 G. Sousa

7 D. Agyei

26 M. Altunbas

Coach · Selcuk Inan

Substitutes

23 · O. Piri

6 · M. Maglica

41 · O. Oztonga

27 · E. Bilim

75 · T. Bingol

8 · T. Gulliksen

99 · R. Rivas

17 · A. Ozyar

97 · F. Aye

32 · M. Baku

Göztepe

3-4-1-2

1 A. Ozcimen

4 T. Altikardes

19 N. Sonko Sundberg

26 M. Bokele

2 A. Kurtulan

5 Rhaldney

20 N. Miroshi

12 R. Akonnor

8 A. Antunes

7 Andre Henrique

9 Juan

Coach · Stanimir Stoilov

Substitutes

33 · S. Ozturk

71 · N. Uzel

13 · E. Yildirim

10 · E. Bekiroglu

18 · F. Anjorin

6 · A. Matos

17 · G. Bayrakdar

22 · S. Armstrong

39 · Janderson

14 · B. Boke

Our number · kocaelispor winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 04:19 · locked at kick-off

36% The market33%

Us36%

~~Market~~33%

We make Kocaelispor a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kocaelispor v Göztepe~~1.16 – 1.12

~~Form · last six in Süper Lig this season · since 23 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 12 v 6~~7 v 15

~~The market · Kocaelispor win~~33% · ours 36%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kocaelispor win The market, margin stripped

Published at 37%, 36% now. The market has gone from 36% to 33% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kocaelispor win	36%	33%	+3
Draw	31%	29%	+2
Göztepe win	34%	38%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	40%	47%	−7
Both teams to score	47%	54%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	67%	71%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	20%	26%	−6
Kocaelispor or draw	66%	62%	+4
Kocaelispor clean sheet	33%	–	–
Göztepe clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.1%

0123450 11.6 10.4 6.4 2.5 1 10.7 14.1 7.3 2.8 2 6.9 7.5 4.2 3 2.7 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kocaelispor down, Göztepe across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,817 Süper Lig matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Süper Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.4% of games this season, across 68 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kocaelispor at home: 1.00 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Göztepe away: 2.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Kocaelispor, 1.12 for Göztepe. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~KOC 1–1 GOZ · GOZ 0–0 KOC · KOC 3–2 GOZ · GOZ 0–1 KOC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Süper Lig this season · since 23 Aug

KOCAELISPOR

WWWLWL2–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–2

GÖZTEPE

LLLDDW0–1 · 2–3 · 2–4 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Galatasaray	8	+6	19
2	Amed	8	+9	17
3	Fenerbahçe	8	+16	16
4	Beşiktaş	7	+8	15
5	Trabzonspor	7	+11	13
6	Çorum FK	8	+5	13
7	Kocaelispor	7	+2	12
8	Alanyaspor	8	−1	12
9	Erzurumspor FK	8	−6	11
10	Kasımpaşa	7	0	10
11	Rizespor	8	−3	10
12	Başakşehir	7	−1	8
13	Gaziantep FK	7	−3	8
14	Gençlerbirliği S.K.	8	−9	8
15	Göztepe	7	0	6
16	Konyaspor	8	−5	5
17	Samsunspor	7	−9	4
18	Eyüpspor	8	−20	3