Göztepe v Çorum FK prediction · Süper Lig

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

GöztepeDrawÇorum FK

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Göztepe 49%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Göztepe are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Göztepe 49%, draw 24%, Çorum FK 26%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Göztepe v Çorum FKBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Göztepe win49%

Draw24%

Çorum FK win26%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 9

RefereeM. Turkmen

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Göztepe

Çorum FK

7Days since last match9

Last match: 18 Oct · Süper Lig

Last match: 16 Oct · Süper Lig

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Çorum FK	8	+5	13
13	Göztepe	8	+1	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · göztepe winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 19 Oct 04:11 · locked at kick-off

49% The market43%

Us49%

~~Market~~43%

We make Göztepe a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Göztepe v Çorum FK~~1.85 – 1.30

~~Form · last six in Süper Lig this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 13~~13 v 9

~~The market · Göztepe win~~43% · ours 49%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Göztepe win The market, margin stripped

Published at 50%, 49% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Göztepe win	49%	43%	+6
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Çorum FK win	26%	31%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	61%	58%	+3
Both teams to score	61%	61%	0
Over 1.5 goals	83%	79%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	39%	38%	+1
Göztepe or draw	74%	69%	+5
Göztepe clean sheet	28%	–	–
Çorum FK clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.4 4.9 3.7 1 7.2 11.0 6.6 2.9 2 7.3 9.2 6.0 2.6 3 4.5 5.7 3.7 4 2.1 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Göztepe down, Çorum FK across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,825 Süper Lig matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Süper Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.2% of games this season, across 76 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Göztepe at home: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Çorum FK away: 3.00 scored, 2.25 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.85 goals for Göztepe, 1.30 for Çorum FK. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~COR 1–1 GOZ · GOZ 1–2 COR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Süper Lig this season · since 29 Aug

GÖZTEPE

LLDDWW2–3 · 2–4 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 4–0 · 2–1

ÇORUM FK

LWWLWW2–6 · 3–0 · 5–1 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Amed	9	+10	20
2	Galatasaray	8	+6	19
3	Fenerbahçe	8	+16	16
4	Trabzonspor	8	+13	16
5	Kasımpaşa	9	+4	16
6	Beşiktaş	8	+6	15
7	Kocaelispor	9	+2	15
8	Erzurumspor FK	9	−4	14
9	Çorum FK	8	+5	13
10	Alanyaspor	9	−2	12
11	Başakşehir	8	0	11
12	Rizespor	8	−3	10
13	Göztepe	8	+1	9
14	Gaziantep FK	9	−6	8
15	Gençlerbirliği S.K.	8	−9	8
16	Konyaspor	8	−5	5
17	Samsunspor	9	−13	4
18	Eyüpspor	9	−21	3