Gençlerbirliği S.K. v Galatasaray

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Galatasaray win at 62%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Galatasaray 62% before kick-off, 61% now. 0–0 · 16–22–61
3. 1′KICK-OFF Gençlerbirliği S.K. v Galatasaray
4. 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Galatasaray win: 62% at kick-off, 52% now
5. 41′We said Galatasaray at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 50%. 0–0 · 17–33–50
6. 43′We said Galatasaray at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 17–34–49
7. 45′HALF-TIME Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0–0 Galatasaray
8. 45′SECOND HALF Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0–0 Galatasaray
9. 48′We said Galatasaray at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 47%. 0–0 · 17–36–47
10. 53′We said Galatasaray at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 16–39–44
11. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.1 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 16–41–43
12. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Galatasaray win: 62% at kick-off, 42% now
13. 60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Galatasaray win 40%)
14. 61′We said Galatasaray at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 15–46–39
15. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Galatasaray · On: R. Leao · Off: L. Sane Corrected
16. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Galatasaray · On: Y. Akgun · Off: B. Yilmaz Corrected
17. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Galatasaray · On: I. Gundogan · Off: Gabriel Sara Corrected
18. 67′We said Galatasaray at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 14–52–34
19. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Galatasaray win: 62% at kick-off, 32% now
20. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Galatasaray · On: I. Jakobs · Off: E. Elmali Corrected
21. 72′We said Galatasaray at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 12–59–29
22. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Gençlerbirliği S.K. · On: V. Orakpo · Off: T. Gouveia Corrected
23. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Gençlerbirliği S.K. · On: O. Ulgun · Off: S. Ucan Corrected
24. 76′We said Galatasaray at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 10–65–24
25. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Galatasaray · On: D. Gul · Off: R. Leao Corrected
26. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Galatasaray win: 62% at kick-off, 22% now
27. 80′We said Galatasaray at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 8–73–19
28. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Gençlerbirliği S.K. · On: G. Erdem · Off: R. Luis Corrected
29. 83′We said Galatasaray at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 6–80–14
30. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Galatasaray win: 62% at kick-off, 12% now
31. 87′We said Galatasaray at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 4–86–9
32. 89′D. Gul scores for Galatasaray on 88′. 0–0 · 3–89–8
33. 89′⚽ GOAL · 88' Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0–1 Galatasaray · D. Gul
34. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Galatasaray win: 62% at kick-off, 97% now
35. 89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Galatasaray win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 3%)
36. 90′We said Galatasaray at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 0–1 · 0–3–97
37. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' V. Osimhen · Galatasaray
38. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Gençlerbirliği S.K. · On: P. Martor · Off: O. Diabate Corrected
39. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Gençlerbirliği S.K. · On: S. Koita · Off: F. Uzum Corrected
40. FTFULL TIME Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0–1 Galatasaray
41. FTGençlerbirliği S.K. 0–1 Galatasaray · Galatasaray win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.