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Gençlerbirliği S.K. v Amed

Gençlerbirliği S.K.

2–2Full time

Amed

Süper Lig · SAT 10 OCT · Eryaman Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 14:11

Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2–2 Amed AMED WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Amed win~~39%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.801

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.795

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 38 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Amed win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Amed was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 35–25–40
1′KICK-OFF Gençlerbirliği S.K. v Amed
14′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Gençlerbirliği S.K.
22′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Gençlerbirliği S.K.
24′25′ and it is 0–1: D. Saba on the scoresheet for Amed. 0–1 · 12–21–67
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0–1 Amed
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Amed win: 39% at kick-off, 67% now
26′We published Amed at 39%. Our model now makes it 67%. 0–1 · 12–21–67
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 11–21–68
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Amed win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
40′We published Amed at 39%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 9–21–70
45′SECOND HALF Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0–1 Amed
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Gençlerbirliği S.K. · On: S. Ucan · Off: A. Dursun
52′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Amed
53′⚽ GOAL · 54' Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0–1 Amed · R. Luis
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1–1 Amed · R. Luis
55′Gençlerbirliği S.K. ahead on 54′ through R. Luis. 1–1. 1–1 · 26–44–29
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Amed win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Amed win 29%)
57′11.0 shots for Amed, 5.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 26–46–28
57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' M. Baltaci · Gençlerbirliği S.K.
57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' F. Soyalp · Amed
57′🟨 YELLOW · 58' L. Dellova · Amed
60′We said Amed at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 1–1 · 25–48–27
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Amed · On: A. T. Bulbul · Off: M. Khalil
64′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Gençlerbirliği S.K.
65′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Gençlerbirliği S.K. · On: H. Aydar · Off: F. Uzum
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1–2 Amed · R. Luis
67′⚽ GOAL · 69' Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1–2 Amed · S. Ballet
69′S. Ballet scores for Amed on 67′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 3–17–80
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Amed win: 39% at kick-off, 80% now
69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Amed win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 17%)
71′We published Amed at 39%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–2 · 3–16–81
73′🟨 YELLOW · 74' A. Lafont · Amed
74′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 2–15–83
77′We published Amed at 39%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–2 · 1–13–85
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Gençlerbirliği S.K. · On: V. Orakpo · Off: R. Luis
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Gençlerbirliği S.K. · On: P. Martor · Off: F. Tongya
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Amed win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
83′We published Amed at 39%. Our model now makes it 91%. 1–2 · 0–8–91
84′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Amed · On: M. Acer · Off: D. Saba
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Amed · On: M. Yesil · Off: L. Dellova
86′We published Amed at 39%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
90′We published Amed at 39%. Our model now makes it 100%. 1–2 · 0–0–100
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Amed win: 39% at kick-off, 100% now
91′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Amed · On: C. Ustundag · Off: F. Soyalp
91′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Amed · On: M. Diagne · Off: E. Krasniqi
91′⚽ GOAL · 94' Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1–2 Amed
92′⚽ GOAL · 92' Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2–2 Amed · Thalisson Kelven
93′90′ and it is 2–2: Thalisson Kelven on the scoresheet for Gençlerbirliği S.K.. 2–2 · 0–100–0
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 93' Amed win: 39% at kick-off, 0% now
93′THE CALL SWINGS · 93' Draw is now our likeliest result at 100% (was Amed win 0%)
94′SUBSTITUTION · 95' Gençlerbirliği S.K. · On: E. Cavusoglu · Off: T. Gouveia
FTFULL TIME Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2–2 Amed
FTGençlerbirliği S.K. 2–2 Amed · Amed win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Gençlerbirliği S.K. win34%

Draw27%

Amed win39%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 11:30

Venue · Eryaman Stadium

Referee · U. Ozturk

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Gençlerbirliği S.K.

3-4-2-1

70 I. Egribayat

90 M. Baltaci

6 D. Goutas

2 Thalisson Kelven

88 F. Uzum

83 R. Luis

42 O. Diabate

77 A. Dursun

7 T. Gouveia

10 F. Tongya

9 P. Mendes

Coach · Bernd Storck

Substitutes

23 · G. Akkan

32 · H. Ogul

53 · E. Cavusoglu

15 · A. Celik

3 · H. Aydar

52 · G. Erdem

48 · S. Ucan

45 · P. Martor

12 · V. Orakpo

17 · E. Aslan

Amed

4-2-3-1

40 A. Lafont

7 E. Krasniqi

5 L. Dellova

4 D. Bates

17 U. Meras

22 R. Raveloson

8 F. Soyalp

10 S. Ballet

91 D. Saba

74 M. Khalil

99 G. Orban

Coach · Besnik Hasi

Substitutes

27 · B. Bozan

47 · K. Demirtas

81 · A. T. Bulbul

21 · M. Yesil

3 · M. Acer

6 · C. Ustundag

93 · R. Lutin

45 · M. Diagne

97 · B. Kizildemir

30 · I. Duyu

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Gençlerbirliği S.K.

3-4-2-1

70 I. Egribayat

90 M. Baltaci

6 D. Goutas

2 Thalisson Kelven

88 F. Uzum

83 R. Luis

42 O. Diabate

77 A. Dursun

7 T. Gouveia

10 F. Tongya

9 P. Mendes

Coach · Bernd Storck

Substitutes

23 · G. Akkan

32 · H. Ogul

53 · E. Cavusoglu

15 · A. Celik

3 · H. Aydar

52 · G. Erdem

48 · S. Ucan

45 · P. Martor

12 · V. Orakpo

17 · E. Aslan

Amed

4-2-3-1

40 A. Lafont

7 E. Krasniqi

5 L. Dellova

4 D. Bates

17 U. Meras

22 R. Raveloson

8 F. Soyalp

10 S. Ballet

91 D. Saba

74 M. Khalil

99 G. Orban

Coach · Besnik Hasi

Substitutes

27 · B. Bozan

47 · K. Demirtas

81 · A. T. Bulbul

21 · M. Yesil

3 · M. Acer

6 · C. Ustundag

93 · R. Lutin

45 · M. Diagne

97 · B. Kizildemir

30 · I. Duyu

Our number · amed winPublished 10 Oct 11:44

39% The market44%

Us39%

~~Market~~44%

We make Amed a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · amed win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 37% to 44% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gençlerbirliği S.K. win	34%	29%	+5
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Amed win	39%	44%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	53%	54%	−1
Both teams to score	57%	57%	0
Over 1.5 goals	78%	77%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	31%	33%	−2
Gençlerbirliği S.K. or draw	61%	56%	+5
Gençlerbirliği S.K. clean sheet	24%	–	–
Amed clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 7.3 7.9 6.5 3.2 1 7.2 12.6 8.4 4.2 2 5.5 7.8 5.6 2.8 3 2.5 3.5 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gençlerbirliği S.K. down, Amed across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,804 Süper Lig matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Süper Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.4% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Gençlerbirliği S.K. at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Amed away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for Gençlerbirliği S.K., 1.46 for Amed. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 11:37. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Süper Lig

GENÇLERBIRLIĞI S.K.

WWDLLL2–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–5 · 1–2 · 0–4

AMED

WLWDWW3–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 5–0 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Galatasaray	7	+5	16
2	Amed	6	+8	13
3	Beşiktaş	6	+7	12
4	Kocaelispor	6	+3	12
5	Alanyaspor	6	+2	11
6	Fenerbahçe	6	+10	10
7	Trabzonspor	6	+8	10
8	Rizespor	6	+1	10
9	Kasımpaşa	7	0	10
10	Gaziantep FK	6	0	8
11	Çorum FK	6	+1	7
12	Başakşehir	6	−1	7
13	Gençlerbirliği S.K.	6	−8	7
14	Erzurumspor FK	6	−8	7
15	Konyaspor	6	−4	4
16	Samsunspor	6	−6	4
17	Göztepe	6	−4	3
18	Eyüpspor	6	−14	3