Gaziantep FK v Erzurumspor FK prediction · Süper Lig

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Gaziantep FK 1–3 Erzurumspor FK GAZIANTEP FK WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Gaziantep FK win~~43%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.775

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.698

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Gaziantep FK win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Gaziantep FK 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–28–29
1′KICK-OFF Gaziantep FK v Erzurumspor FK
31′SUBSTITUTION · 29' Erzurumspor FK · On: Y. Kirtay · Off: M. Yumlu
41′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Gaziantep FK
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Gaziantep FK win 37%)
45′HALF-TIME Gaziantep FK 0–0 Erzurumspor FK
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Gaziantep FK · On: S. Dursun · Off: T. Stewart
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Gaziantep FK · On: A. Kizildag · Off: M. Abena
46′SECOND HALF Gaziantep FK 0–0 Erzurumspor FK
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Gaziantep FK win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
53′M. Cardoso scores for Erzurumspor FK on 53′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 8–23–68
53′We said Gaziantep FK at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 0–1 · 8–23–68
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Gaziantep FK 0–1 Erzurumspor FK · M. Cardoso
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Gaziantep FK win: 43% at kick-off, 8% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Erzurumspor FK win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Draw 45%)
59′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Gaziantep FK · On: S. Destici · Off: A. Kizildag
64′64′: A. Gerxhaliu on the scoresheet for Erzurumspor FK, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–95
64′We said Gaziantep FK at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
64′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 0–2 · 1–4–95
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Gaziantep FK 0–2 Erzurumspor FK · A. Gerxhaliu
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Gaziantep FK win: 43% at kick-off, 1% now
68′Gaziantep FK have had 15 attempts to 7 and it is still 0–2. 0–2 · 0–3–96
71′Gaziantep FK pull one back on 71′ through K. Calhanoglu. 1–2. 1–2 · 3–18–79
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Gaziantep FK 1–2 Erzurumspor FK · K. Calhanoglu
72′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 3–18–79
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Gaziantep FK · On: K. Gassama · Off: J. Bacuna
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Erzurumspor FK · On: I. Diabate · Off: E. Tozlu
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Erzurumspor FK · On: M. Fettahoglu · Off: M. Cardoso
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Gaziantep FK · On: H. Dervisoglu · Off: D. Camara
84′Gaziantep FK have had 19 attempts to 8 and it is still 1–2. 1–2 · 0–8–91
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Erzurumspor FK · On: G. Kerk · Off: M. Rodriguez
86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Gaziantep FK
94′G. Giorbelidze scores for Erzurumspor FK on 90′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' Gaziantep FK 1–3 Erzurumspor FK · G. Giorbelidze
95′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Gaziantep FK 1–3 Erzurumspor FK
FTGaziantep FK 1–3 Erzurumspor FK · Gaziantep FK win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Gaziantep FK are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gaziantep FK 43%, draw 28%, Erzurumspor FK 29%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Gaziantep FK v Erzurumspor FKBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Gaziantep FK win43%

Draw28%

Erzurumspor FK win29%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueGaziantep Stadyumu

RefereeM. Dakan

Line-ups

Gaziantep FK

4-1-4-1

Erzurumspor FK

5-3-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gaziantep FK

Erzurumspor FK

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Süper Lig

Last match: 17 Oct · Süper Lig

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Erzurumspor FK	8	−6	11
14	Gaziantep FK	8	−4	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Gaziantep FK

4-1-4-1

25 Kacper Tobiasz

2 Luis Pérez

14 Myenty Abena

21 Abakar Sylla

23 Kerim Çalhanoğlu

7 Juninho Bacuna

18 Deian Sorescu

3 Drissa Camara

44 Alexandru Maxim

10 Kacper Kozłowski

9 Trivante Stewart

Coach · –

Substitutes

4 · Arda Kızıldağ

19 · Serdar Dursun

77 · Sabahattin Destici

17 · Karamba Gassama

28 · Halil Dervişoğlu

35 · Ataberk Dadakdeniz

5 · Efe Sarıkaya

8 · Gidado Victor Ntino-Emo

11 · Mirza Cihan

83 · Mervan Müjdeci

Erzurumspor FK

5-3-2

1 Ertuğrul Taşkıran

53 Orhan Ovacıklı

4 Amar Gerxhaliu

22 Mustafa Yumlu

18 Nihad Mujakić

15 Guram Giorbelidze

6 Brandon Baiye

42 Elisha Owusu

65 Martín Rodríguez

10 Eren Tozlu

20 Miguel Cardoso

Coach · –

Substitutes

3 · Yakup Kırtay

99 · Mustafa Fettahoglu

19 · Ibrahim Diabaté

9 · Gyrano Kerk

31 · Matija Orbanić

2 · Festy Ebosele

23 · Cengizhan Bayrak

8 · Sefa Akgün

77 · Lawrence Agyekum

90 · Nariman Akhundzade

Our number · gaziantep fk winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

43% The market39%

Us43%

~~Market~~39%

We make Gaziantep FK a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gaziantep FK v Erzurumspor FK~~1.45 – 1.13

~~Form · last six in Süper Lig this season · since 28 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 8 v 11~~14 v 11

~~The market · Gaziantep FK win~~39% · ours 43%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Gaziantep FK win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gaziantep FK win	43%	39%	+4
Draw	28%	29%	−1
Erzurumspor FK win	29%	32%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	47%	46%	+1
Both teams to score	52%	52%	0
Over 1.5 goals	73%	70%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	26%	27%	−1
Gaziantep FK or draw	71%	68%	+3
Gaziantep FK clean sheet	33%	–	–
Erzurumspor FK clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 8.9 7.7 4.9 1 10.0 13.3 6.9 2.6 2 7.9 8.7 4.9 3 3.8 4.3 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gaziantep FK down, Erzurumspor FK across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,822 Süper Lig matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Süper Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.9% of games this season, across 73 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Gaziantep FK at home: 0.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Erzurumspor FK away: 0.25 scored, 1.75 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Gaziantep FK, 1.13 for Erzurumspor FK. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 13:35. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Süper Lig this season · since 28 Aug

GAZIANTEP FK

LWDLLL1–2 · 4–2 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 1–2

ERZURUMSPOR FK

DWLWDW1–1 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Galatasaray	8	+6	19
2	Amed	8	+9	17
3	Fenerbahçe	8	+16	16
4	Trabzonspor	8	+13	16
5	Beşiktaş	8	+6	15
6	Kocaelispor	9	+2	15
7	Çorum FK	8	+5	13
8	Kasımpaşa	8	+3	13
9	Alanyaspor	9	−2	12
10	Başakşehir	8	0	11
11	Erzurumspor FK	8	−6	11
12	Rizespor	8	−3	10
13	Göztepe	8	+1	9
14	Gaziantep FK	8	−4	8
15	Gençlerbirliği S.K.	8	−9	8
16	Konyaspor	8	−5	5
17	Samsunspor	8	−12	4
18	Eyüpspor	8	−20	3