Gaziantep FK v Çorum FK prediction · Süper Lig

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Gaziantep FK 0–3 Çorum FK GAZIANTEP FK WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Gaziantep FK win~~41%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.693

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.681

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Gaziantep FK win at 41%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Gaziantep FK 41% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–24–33
3′Little has changed for our model: Gaziantep FK 41% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–25–33
37′A goal for Çorum FK on 37′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 14–23–63
37′C. Under scores for Çorum FK on 37′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 14–23–63
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Gaziantep FK win is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Çorum FK win 31%)
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Gaziantep FK win: 41% at kick-off, 14% now
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Çorum FK win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Gaziantep FK win 14%)
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Gaziantep FK win: 41% at kick-off, 38% now
39′We said Gaziantep FK at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–23–64
40′We said Gaziantep FK at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–23–64
41′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 12–23–64
42′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Çorum FK
45′HALF-TIME Gaziantep FK 0–1 Çorum FK
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Gaziantep FK win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Gaziantep FK win: 41% at kick-off, 12% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Çorum FK win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Gaziantep FK win 12%)
45′SECOND HALF Gaziantep FK 0–1 Çorum FK
51′⚽ GOAL · 37' Gaziantep FK 0–1 Çorum FK · C. Under (assist M. Diomande)
51′🟨 YELLOW · 43' M. Diomande · Çorum FK
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Çorum FK · On: Y. Ramadani · Off: B. Ozdemir Corrected
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Gaziantep FK · On: U. Meleke · Off: O. Ozcicek Corrected
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Gaziantep FK · On: D. Camara · Off: H. Dervisoglu Corrected
59′⚽ GOAL · 60' Gaziantep FK 0–1 Çorum FK · A. Kyziridis
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Gaziantep FK 0–2 Çorum FK · A. Kyziridis
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Gaziantep FK · On: S. Dursun · Off: V. Gidado Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Çorum FK · On: M. Karlsbakk · Off: G. Sazdagi Corrected
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Çorum FK
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Gaziantep FK 0–3 Çorum FK · A. Kyziridis
82′⚽ GOAL · 83' Gaziantep FK 0–3 Çorum FK · M. Karlsbakk
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Gaziantep FK · On: S. Destici · Off: L. Perez Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Gaziantep FK · On: S. Hansen · Off: A. Maxim Corrected
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Çorum FK · On: E. Mahmic · Off: A. Kyziridis Corrected
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Çorum FK · On: Y. Moukoko · Off: C. Under Corrected
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Çorum FK · On: A. Sengul · Off: A. Borza Corrected
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Çorum FK
95′🟨 YELLOW · 96' Gaziantep FK
97′🟨 YELLOW · 98' Gaziantep FK
FTFULL TIME Gaziantep FK 0–3 Çorum FK
FTGaziantep FK 0–3 Çorum FK · Gaziantep FK win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Gaziantep FK win41%

Draw26%

Çorum FK win33%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

VenueGaziantep Stadyumu

RefereeG. Hasova

Line-ups

Gaziantep FK

4-1-4-1

Çorum FK

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Gaziantep FK

Çorum FK

22Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Gaziantep FK	6	0	8
13	Çorum FK	6	+1	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Gaziantep FK

4-1-4-1

25 K. Tobiasz

2 L. Perez

14 M. Abena

21 A. Sylla

23 K. Calhanoglu

61 O. Ozcicek

18 D. Sorescu

8 V. Gidado

44 A. Maxim

10 K. Kozlowski

28 H. Dervisoglu

Coach · Orhan Ak

Substitutes

35 · A. Dadakdeniz

77 · S. Destici

5 · E. Sarikaya

6 · U. Meleke

3 · D. Camara

17 · K. Gassama

83 · M. Mujdeci

19 · S. Dursun

11 · M. Cihan

22 · S. Hansen

Çorum FK

3-4-3

1 Marcos Felipe

5 Alexandre Penetra

2 C. Soyuncu

6 H. Smolcic

11 G. Sazdagi

3 B. Ozdemir

10 M. Diomande

24 A. Borza

7 C. Under

19 J. Ramirez

89 A. Kyziridis

Coach · Tamer Sivrikaya

Substitutes

18 · E. Erenturk

15 · A. Sengul

20 · Y. Ramadani

30 · A. Ildiz

26 · E. Mahmic

16 · Fredy

8 · M. Karlsbakk

21 · G. Gurpuz

9 · M. Thiam

14 · Y. Moukoko

Our number · gaziantep fk winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

41% The market40%

Us41%

~~Market~~40%

We make Gaziantep FK a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · gaziantep fk win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 41% now. The market has gone from 36% to 40% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gaziantep FK win	41%	40%	+2
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Çorum FK win	33%	33%	0
Over 2.5 goals	57%	54%	+4
Both teams to score	60%	58%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	81%	77%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	35%	33%	+3
Gaziantep FK or draw	67%	67%	0
Gaziantep FK clean sheet	25%	–	–
Çorum FK clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 6.2 6.1 4.9 2.3 1 7.1 11.9 7.6 3.6 2 6.4 8.7 6.0 2.8 3 3.4 4.7 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gaziantep FK down, Çorum FK across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,808 Süper Lig matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Süper Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.6% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Gaziantep FK at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Çorum FK away: 3.00 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Gaziantep FK, 1.40 for Çorum FK. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 13:37. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Süper Lig

GAZIANTEP FK

DWLWDL1–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 4–2 · 0–0 · 0–2

ÇORUM FK

DLLWWL2–2 · 0–1 · 2–6 · 3–0 · 5–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Galatasaray	7	+5	16
2	Amed	7	+8	14
3	Fenerbahçe	7	+13	13
4	Trabzonspor	7	+11	13
5	Beşiktaş	6	+7	12
6	Kocaelispor	6	+3	12
7	Alanyaspor	7	+2	12
8	Kasımpaşa	7	0	10
9	Rizespor	7	−2	10
10	Gaziantep FK	6	0	8
11	Gençlerbirliği S.K.	7	−8	8
12	Erzurumspor FK	7	−8	8
13	Çorum FK	6	+1	7
14	Başakşehir	6	−1	7
15	Konyaspor	6	−4	4
16	Samsunspor	7	−9	4
17	Göztepe	6	−4	3
18	Eyüpspor	6	−14	3