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Galatasaray v Kasımpaşa

Galatasaray

3–1Full time

Kasımpaşa

Süper Lig · FRI 9 OCT · Rams Park

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 20:30

Galatasaray 3–1 Kasımpaşa GALATASARAY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Galatasaray win~~72%

~~The market said~~75%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.118

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.094

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Galatasaray win at 72%.
29′Much as we predicted: Galatasaray was 72% before kick-off and our model makes it 65% now. 0–0 · 65–23–12
33′🟨 YELLOW · 28' K. Demirbay · Kasımpaşa
41′We said Galatasaray at 72%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 60%. 0–0 · 60–28–13
41′🟨 YELLOW · 40' D. Sanchez · Galatasaray
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Galatasaray win: 72% at kick-off, 60% now
42′We said Galatasaray at 72%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 59%. 0–0 · 59–28–13
43′7.0 shots for Galatasaray, 1.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 59–29–13
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Galatasaray 1–0 Kasımpaşa · A. Bardakci
45′HALF-TIME Galatasaray 1–0 Kasımpaşa
45′🟨 YELLOW · 3' R. Leao · Galatasaray
45′🟨 YELLOW · 24' E. Mendes · Kasımpaşa
45′🟨 YELLOW · 28' K. Demirbay · Kasımpaşa
45′🟨 YELLOW · 40' D. Sanchez · Galatasaray
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Galatasaray 1–0 Kasımpaşa · A. Bardakci (assist A. Batrakov)
46′SECOND HALF Galatasaray 1–0 Kasımpaşa
52′🟨 YELLOW · 52' A. Kol · Kasımpaşa
56′🟨 YELLOW · 56' A. Baldursson · Kasımpaşa
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Kasımpaşa · On: T. Diarra · Off: G. Yalcin
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Kasımpaşa · On: J. Rak-Sakyi · Off: A. Kol
64′🟨 YELLOW · 63' L. Torreira · Galatasaray
66′🟥 RED CARD · 66' L. Torreira · Galatasaray
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Galatasaray · On: M. Lemina · Off: A. Batrakov
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Galatasaray · On: E. Elmali · Off: R. Leao
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Galatasaray 1–1 Kasımpaşa
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Kasımpaşa · On: H. Hajradinovic · Off: K. Demirbay
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Galatasaray · On: V. Osimhen · Off: D. Gul
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Galatasaray · On: L. Sane · Off: A. Bardakci
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Kasımpaşa · On: J. Jessen · Off: A. Karapo
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Galatasaray · On: R. Nhaga · Off: Gabriel Sara
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Galatasaray 2–1 Kasımpaşa
90′⚽ GOAL · 96' Galatasaray 3–1 Kasımpaşa · M. Lemina
FTGalatasaray 3–1 Kasımpaşa · Galatasaray win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Galatasaray win72%

Draw17%

Kasımpaşa win10%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 18:00

Venue · Rams Park

Referee · H. U. Meler

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Galatasaray

4-2-3-1

1 U. Cakir

53 B. Yilmaz

6 D. Sanchez

42 A. Bardakci

4 I. Jakobs

34 L. Torreira

8 Gabriel Sara

11 Y. Akgun

83 A. Batrakov

27 R. Leao

21 D. Gul

Coach · Okan Buruk

Substitutes

24 · J. Yilmaz

7 · R. Sallai

3 · E. Bitshiabu

17 · E. Elmali

23 · K. Ayhan

20 · I. Gundogan

99 · M. Lemina

74 · R. Nhaga

10 · L. Sane

45 · V. Osimhen

Kasımpaşa

4-2-3-1

1 A. Gianniotis

2 C. Winck

14 K. Mouanga

27 M. Ilie

45 A. Karapo

16 A. Baldursson

26 K. Demirbay

50 G. Yalcin

51 E. Mendes

7 A. Kol

9 A. Benedyczak

Coach · Emre Belozoglu

Substitutes

25 · A. Yanar

5 · J. Jessen

4 · A. Arous

10 · H. Hajradinovic

8 · A. Mujde

17 · J. Rak-Sakyi

66 · E. Boz

19 · M. Rafferty

11 · T. Diarra

99 · M. Bektas

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Galatasaray

4-2-3-1

1 U. Cakir

53 B. Yilmaz

6 D. Sanchez

42 A. Bardakci

4 I. Jakobs

34 L. Torreira

8 Gabriel Sara

11 Y. Akgun

83 A. Batrakov

27 R. Leao

21 D. Gul

Coach · Okan Buruk

Substitutes

24 · J. Yilmaz

7 · R. Sallai

3 · E. Bitshiabu

17 · E. Elmali

23 · K. Ayhan

20 · I. Gundogan

99 · M. Lemina

74 · R. Nhaga

10 · L. Sane

45 · V. Osimhen

Kasımpaşa

4-2-3-1

1 A. Gianniotis

2 C. Winck

14 K. Mouanga

27 M. Ilie

45 A. Karapo

16 A. Baldursson

26 K. Demirbay

50 G. Yalcin

51 E. Mendes

7 A. Kol

9 A. Benedyczak

Coach · Emre Belozoglu

Substitutes

25 · A. Yanar

5 · J. Jessen

4 · A. Arous

10 · H. Hajradinovic

8 · A. Mujde

17 · J. Rak-Sakyi

66 · E. Boz

19 · M. Rafferty

11 · T. Diarra

99 · M. Bektas

Our number · galatasaray winPublished 9 Oct 18:04

72% The market75%

Us72%

~~Market~~75%

We make Galatasaray a 72% chance to win. The market has them at 75%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.5–0.9.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Galatasaray win	72%	75%	−3
Draw	17%	16%	+2
Kasımpaşa win	10%	9%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	65%	65%	0
Both teams to score	53%	50%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	85%	84%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	44%	45%	−1
Galatasaray or draw	90%	91%	−1
Galatasaray clean sheet	43%	–	–
Kasımpaşa clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.7%

0123450 4.2 2.4 1 8.1 8.0 3.2 2 10.7 9.1 3.9 3 8.9 7.5 3.3 4 5.7 4.8 2.1 5 2.9 2.5

under 2% 5% 12%+Galatasaray down, Kasımpaşa across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,803 Süper Lig matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Süper Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.6% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Galatasaray at home: 2.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Kasımpaşa away: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.52 goals for Galatasaray, 0.86 for Kasımpaşa. Most likely score 2–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 17:32. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~KAS 1–0 GAL · GAL 3–0 KAS · KAS 3–3 GAL · GAL 3–3 KAS

Form · last six in Süper Lig

GALATASARAY

DWWWWL2–2 · 4–0 · 3–2 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 0–4

KASIMPAŞA

DWDDWD1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Amed	6	+8	13
2	Galatasaray	6	+3	13
3	Beşiktaş	6	+7	12
4	Kocaelispor	6	+3	12
5	Alanyaspor	6	+2	11
6	Fenerbahçe	6	+10	10
7	Trabzonspor	6	+8	10
8	Kasımpaşa	6	+2	10
9	Rizespor	6	+1	10
10	Gaziantep FK	6	0	8
11	Çorum FK	6	+1	7
12	Başakşehir	6	−1	7
13	Gençlerbirliği S.K.	6	−8	7
14	Erzurumspor FK	6	−8	7
15	Konyaspor	6	−4	4
16	Samsunspor	6	−6	4
17	Göztepe	6	−4	3
18	Eyüpspor	6	−14	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match updates

Timeline

Pre-match prediction

Match information

The game so far

Match statistics

Players on the pitch

Line-ups

Galatasaray

Kasımpaşa

Match statistics

Line-ups

Galatasaray

Kasımpaşa

Head to head

Form · last six in Süper Lig

The table