Galatasaray v Fenerbahçe prediction · Süper Lig

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

GalatasarayDrawFenerbahçe

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Galatasaray 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Galatasaray are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Galatasaray 46%, draw 24%, Fenerbahçe 30%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Galatasaray v FenerbahçeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Galatasaray win46%

Draw24%

Fenerbahçe win30%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 18:30

RoundMatchday 9

VenueRams Park

RefereeA. Karaoglan

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Galatasaray

Fenerbahçe

5Days since last match6

Last match: 21 Oct · UEFA Champions League

Last match: 20 Oct · UEFA Champions League

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · galatasaray winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

46% The market43%

Us46%

~~Market~~43%

We make Galatasaray a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Galatasaray v Fenerbahçe~~1.91 – 1.51

~~Form · last six in Süper Lig this season · since 29 Aug~~W5 D0 L1 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 19 v 16~~1 v 3

~~The market · Galatasaray win~~43% · ours 46%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Galatasaray win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 46% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Galatasaray win	46%	43%	+3
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Fenerbahçe win	30%	32%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	66%	63%	+3
Both teams to score	66%	65%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	86%	83%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	44%	43%	+1
Galatasaray or draw	70%	68%	+2
Galatasaray clean sheet	23%	–	–
Fenerbahçe clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.1%

0123450 4.3 4.3 3.8 1 5.6 10.1 7.0 3.5 2 6.0 8.8 6.6 3.3 3 3.8 5.6 4.2 2.1 4 2.7 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Galatasaray down, Fenerbahçe across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,825 Süper Lig matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Süper Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.2% of games this season, across 76 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.90 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Galatasaray at home: 2.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Fenerbahçe away: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.91 goals for Galatasaray, 1.51 for Fenerbahçe. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.90

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~GAL 3–0 FEN · GAL 0–2 FEN · FEN 1–1 GAL · FEN 1–2 GAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Süper Lig this season · since 29 Aug

GALATASARAY

WWWLWW3–2 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 0–4 · 3–1 · 1–0

FENERBAHÇE

WLDWWW2–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 8–0 · 3–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Galatasaray	8	+6	19
2	Amed	8	+9	17
3	Fenerbahçe	8	+16	16
4	Trabzonspor	8	+13	16
5	Kasımpaşa	9	+4	16
6	Beşiktaş	8	+6	15
7	Kocaelispor	9	+2	15
8	Erzurumspor FK	9	−4	14
9	Çorum FK	8	+5	13
10	Alanyaspor	9	−2	12
11	Başakşehir	8	0	11
12	Rizespor	8	−3	10
13	Göztepe	8	+1	9
14	Gaziantep FK	9	−6	8
15	Gençlerbirliği S.K.	8	−9	8
16	Konyaspor	8	−5	5
17	Samsunspor	8	−12	4
18	Eyüpspor	9	−21	3