Fenerbahçe v Alanyaspor prediction · Süper Lig

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40

Fenerbahçe 3–0 Alanyaspor FENERBAHÇE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Fenerbahçe win~~69%

~~The market said~~74%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.147

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.102

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Fenerbahçe win at 69%.
1′Much as we predicted: Fenerbahçe was 69% before kick-off and our model makes it 69% now. 0–0 · 69–19–12
1′KICK-OFF Fenerbahçe v Alanyaspor
17′We published Fenerbahçe at 69%. Our model now makes it 87%. 1–0 · 87–9–4
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Fenerbahçe 1–0 Alanyaspor
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Fenerbahçe win: 69% at kick-off, 87% now
18′A goal for Fenerbahçe on 18′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 87–9–4
18′PENALTY MISSED · 17' M. Greenwood · Fenerbahçe
19′GOAL DISALLOWED · 19' Fenerbahçe
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Fenerbahçe win: 69% at kick-off, 64% now
23′7 shots for Fenerbahçe, 1 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 63–24–13
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Fenerbahçe win: 69% at kick-off, 59% now
39′We said Fenerbahçe at 69%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 57%. 0–0 · 57–29–14
39′9 shots for Fenerbahçe, 1 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 57–29–14
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Fenerbahçe 1–0 Alanyaspor
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Fenerbahçe win: 69% at kick-off, 86% now
41′R. Lukaku scores for Fenerbahçe on 40′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 86–11–3
45′SECOND HALF Fenerbahçe 1–0 Alanyaspor
46′HALF-TIME Fenerbahçe 1–0 Alanyaspor
47′We published Fenerbahçe at 69%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–2–0
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Fenerbahçe 2–0 Alanyaspor
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Fenerbahçe win: 69% at kick-off, 97% now
48′Goals are coming at about the 3.3 we expected. 2–0 · 97–2–0
49′47′: I. Kahveci on the scoresheet for Fenerbahçe, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 97–2–0
52′GOAL DISALLOWED · 52' Fenerbahçe
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Alanyaspor · On: I. Hagi · Off: I. Kaya Corrected
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Alanyaspor · On: M. Elia · Off: Hwang Ui-Jo Corrected
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Fenerbahçe · On: K. Akturkoglu · Off: M. Greenwood Corrected
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Fenerbahçe 2–0 Alanyaspor
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Fenerbahçe win: 69% at kick-off, 99% now
72′71′: K. Akturkoglu on the scoresheet for Fenerbahçe, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' O. Aydin · Fenerbahçe
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Alanyaspor · On: O. Ben Ali · Off: A. Usluoglu Corrected
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Alanyaspor · On: E. Keskin · Off: Ruan Corrected
78′We published Fenerbahçe at 69%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Fenerbahçe · On: M. Yandas · Off: I. Kahveci Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Fenerbahçe · On: A. Brown · Off: L. Mercan Corrected
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Fenerbahçe · On: D. Nene · Off: O. Aydin Corrected
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Fenerbahçe · On: V. Muriqi · Off: R. Lukaku Corrected
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Fenerbahçe 3–0 Alanyaspor
88′Fenerbahçe find the net on 87′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Alanyaspor · On: Maestro · Off: B. Gezek Corrected
93′Full time, 3–0. We called Fenerbahçe at 69% — that one lands. 3–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Fenerbahçe 3–0 Alanyaspor
FTFenerbahçe 3–0 Alanyaspor · Fenerbahçe win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Fenerbahçe are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Fenerbahçe 69%, draw 19%, Alanyaspor 12%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Fenerbahçe v AlanyasporBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Fenerbahçe win69%

Draw19%

Alanyaspor win12%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueChobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu

RefereeC. Altay

Line-ups

Fenerbahçe

4-2-3-1

Alanyaspor

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fenerbahçe

Alanyaspor

3Days since last match7

Last match: 14 Oct · UEFA Champions League

Last match: 10 Oct · Süper Lig

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Fenerbahçe	7	+13	13
7	Alanyaspor	7	+2	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Fenerbahçe

4-2-3-1

31 Ederson

27 N. Semedo

37 M. Skriniar

15 N. Ake

22 L. Mercan

91 N. Kante

6 M. Guendouzi

17 I. Kahveci

11 M. Greenwood

70 O. Aydin

9 R. Lukaku

Coach · Ismail Kartal

Substitutes

34 · M. Gunok

3 · A. Brown

14 · Y. E. Demir

21 · K. Peprah

8 · M. Yandas

5 · I. Yuksek

28 · B. Elmaz

19 · V. Muriqi

7 · K. Akturkoglu

45 · D. Nene

Alanyaspor

3-4-3

48 Paulo Victor

3 N. Lima

5 F. Aliti

20 F. Aksoy

94 F. Hadergjonaj

42 G. Makouta

55 B. Gezek

11 Ruan

16 Hwang Ui-Jo

17 A. Usluoglu

7 I. Kaya

Coach · Joao Pereira

Substitutes

23 · M. Bayram

4 · B. Ozyurt

10 · I. Hagi

14 · E. Demir

58 · Maestro

8 · E. Keskin

26 · I. Celik

88 · Y. Ozdemir

12 · M. Elia

9 · O. Ben Ali

Our number · fenerbahçe winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

69% The market74%

Us69%

~~Market~~74%

We make Fenerbahçe a 69% chance to win. The market has them at 74%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.4–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Fenerbahçe v Alanyaspor~~2.37 – 0.90

~~Form · last six in Süper Lig this season · since 22 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 13 v 12~~4 v 7

~~The market · Fenerbahçe win~~74% · ours 69%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Fenerbahçe win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 70% to 74% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fenerbahçe win	69%	74%	−5
Draw	19%	16%	+3
Alanyaspor win	12%	10%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	63%	63%	0
Both teams to score	54%	50%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	84%	82%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	41%	42%	−1
Fenerbahçe or draw	88%	90%	−2
Fenerbahçe clean sheet	41%	–	–
Alanyaspor clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.6%

0123450 4.8 2.8 1 8.4 8.8 3.6 2 10.6 9.4 4.2 3 8.3 7.3 3.3 4 5.0 4.4 5 2.4 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Fenerbahçe down, Alanyaspor across0–5 goals a side shown (96.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,813 Süper Lig matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Süper Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.4% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.80 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fenerbahçe at home: 3.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Alanyaspor away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.37 goals for Fenerbahçe, 0.90 for Alanyaspor. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.80

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALA 2–3 FEN · FEN 2–2 ALA · ALA 0–2 FEN · FEN 3–0 ALA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Süper Lig this season · since 22 Aug

FENERBAHÇE

WWLDWW4–2 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 8–0 · 3–0

ALANYASPOR

WLWDWD1–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Galatasaray	7	+5	16
2	Beşiktaş	7	+8	15
3	Amed	7	+8	14
4	Fenerbahçe	7	+13	13
5	Trabzonspor	7	+11	13
6	Çorum FK	8	+5	13
7	Alanyaspor	7	+2	12
8	Kocaelispor	7	+2	12
9	Kasımpaşa	7	0	10
10	Rizespor	8	−3	10
11	Başakşehir	7	−1	8
12	Gaziantep FK	7	−3	8
13	Gençlerbirliği S.K.	7	−8	8
14	Erzurumspor FK	7	−8	8
15	Göztepe	7	0	6
16	Konyaspor	7	−4	5
17	Samsunspor	7	−9	4
18	Eyüpspor	7	−18	3