Eyüpspor v Kasımpaşa prediction · Süper Lig

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:04

Eyüpspor 0–1 Kasımpaşa KASIMPAŞA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kasımpaşa win~~39%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.566

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.258

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kasımpaşa win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Kasımpaşa 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 33–28–39
1′KICK-OFF Eyüpspor v Kasımpaşa
29′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Kasımpaşa
38′37′: A. Benedyczak on the scoresheet for Kasımpaşa, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 9–20–70
38′We said Kasımpaşa at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 9–20–70
38′⚽ GOAL · 37' Eyüpspor 0–1 Kasımpaşa · A. Benedyczak
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Kasımpaşa win: 39% at kick-off, 70% now
39′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 9–21–71
45′HALF-TIME Eyüpspor 0–1 Kasımpaşa
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Eyüpspor · On: M. Demir · Off: K. Michalak
46′SECOND HALF Eyüpspor 0–1 Kasımpaşa
55′We said Kasımpaşa at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 6–20–75
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Kasımpaşa · On: A. Baldursson · Off: H. Hajradinovic
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Kasımpaşa win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
67′We said Kasımpaşa at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Eyüpspor · On: A. Sabiri · Off: I. Taskin
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Eyüpspor · On: B. Boutobba · Off: L. Pintor
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Eyüpspor · On: C. Raux Yao · Off: D. Costa
75′We said Kasımpaşa at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Kasımpaşa win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
81′We said Kasımpaşa at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
84′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Kasımpaşa · On: M. Rafferty · Off: E. Mendes
84′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Kasımpaşa · On: G. Yalcin · Off: A. Benedyczak
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Eyüpspor · On: A. Yasar · Off: Y. Barasi
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Kasımpaşa
88′We said Kasımpaşa at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Kasımpaşa · On: T. Diarra · Off: J. Rak-Sakyi
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Kasımpaşa · On: A. Mujde · Off: A. Kol
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' Kasımpaşa win: 39% at kick-off, 99% now
FTFULL TIME Eyüpspor 0–1 Kasımpaşa
FTEyüpspor 0–1 Kasımpaşa · Kasımpaşa win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kasımpaşa are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Eyüpspor 33%, draw 28%, Kasımpaşa 39%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Eyüpspor v KasımpaşaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Eyüpspor win33%

Draw28%

Kasımpaşa win39%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 11:30

RoundMatchday 9

RefereeA. Akarsu

Line-ups

Eyüpspor

4-1-4-1

Kasımpaşa

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Eyüpspor

Kasımpaşa

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Süper Lig

Last match: 18 Oct · Süper Lig

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Kasımpaşa	8	+3	13
18	Eyüpspor	8	−20	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Eyüpspor

4-1-4-1

1 Emre Bilgin

7 Talha Ülvan

5 Jawad El Yamiq

33 Zak Jules

21 Simone Giordano

88 Chandrel Massanga

11 Lenny Pintor

8 David Costa

28 Taşkın Ilter

77 Konrad Michalak

9 Yusuf Barası

Coach · –

Substitutes

31 · Horațiu Moldovan

3 · Arda Yavuz

42 · Berhan Satli

4 · Seyfettin Anıl Yaşar

15 · Charles-Andre Raux Yao

70 · Mete Demir

10 · Abdelhamid Sabiri

18 · Hamza Akman

98 · Bilal Boutobba

53 · Musa Karakas

Kasımpaşa

4-2-3-1

1 Andreas Gianniotis

2 Cláudio Winck

4 Adem Arous

27 Matei Ilie

45 Ayberk Karapo

51 Elson Mendes

26 Kerem Demirbay

17 Jesurun Rak-Sakyi

10 Haris Hajradinović

7 Ali Yavuz Kol

9 Adrian Benedyczak

Coach · –

Substitutes

25 · Ali Emre Yanar

30 · Ahmet Taha Dağbaşı

18 · Ömer Bayram

5 · Jakob Jessen

16 · Andri Fannar Baldursson

66 · Emirhan Boz

11 · Thiemoko Diarra

19 · Marcus Rafferty

8 · Atakan Mujde

50 · Güven Yalçın

Our number · kasımpaşa winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off

39% The market59%

Us39%

~~Market~~59%

We make Kasımpaşa a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 20 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Eyüpspor v Kasımpaşa~~1.27 – 1.38

~~Form · last six in Süper Lig this season · since 30 Aug~~W1 D0 L5 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 3 v 13~~18 v 8

~~The market · Kasımpaşa win~~59% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kasımpaşa win The market, margin stripped

Published at 37%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Eyüpspor win	33%	17%	+16
Draw	28%	24%	+4
Kasımpaşa win	39%	59%	−20
Over 2.5 goals	49%	48%	+1
Both teams to score	54%	47%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	75%	72%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	28%	28%	0
Eyüpspor or draw	61%	41%	+20
Eyüpspor clean sheet	26%	–	–
Kasımpaşa clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 8.4 8.8 6.8 3.2 1 8.0 13.2 8.3 3.9 2 5.7 7.7 5.2 2.4 3 2.5 3.3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Eyüpspor down, Kasımpaşa across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,822 Süper Lig matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Süper Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.9% of games this season, across 73 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Eyüpspor at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Kasımpaşa away: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Eyüpspor, 1.38 for Kasımpaşa. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 11:05. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~0 of 4

~~Last meetings~~KAS 1–0 EYU · EYU 2–0 KAS · EYU 0–3 KAS · KAS 2–0 EYU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Süper Lig this season · since 30 Aug

EYÜPSPOR

WLLLLL2–1 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 0–8 · 0–4 · 0–2

KASIMPAŞA

DDWDLW1–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Galatasaray	8	+6	19
2	Amed	8	+9	17
3	Fenerbahçe	8	+16	16
4	Trabzonspor	8	+13	16
5	Beşiktaş	8	+6	15
6	Kocaelispor	9	+2	15
7	Çorum FK	8	+5	13
8	Kasımpaşa	8	+3	13
9	Alanyaspor	9	−2	12
10	Başakşehir	8	0	11
11	Erzurumspor FK	8	−6	11
12	Rizespor	8	−3	10
13	Göztepe	8	+1	9
14	Gaziantep FK	8	−4	8
15	Gençlerbirliği S.K.	8	−9	8
16	Konyaspor	8	−5	5
17	Samsunspor	8	−12	4
18	Eyüpspor	8	−20	3