Erzurumspor FK v Eyüpspor prediction · Süper Lig

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

Erzurumspor FK 2–0 Eyüpspor ERZURUMSPOR FK WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Erzurumspor FK win~~46%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.440

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.230

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Erzurumspor FK win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Erzurumspor FK 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–28–26
1′KICK-OFF Erzurumspor FK v Eyüpspor
17′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Eyüpspor
19′Erzurumspor FK ahead on 19′ through M. Cardoso. 1–0. 1–0 · 75–17–8
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Erzurumspor FK 1–0 Eyüpspor · M. Cardoso
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Erzurumspor FK win: 46% at kick-off, 75% now
20′We said Erzurumspor FK at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–17–8
31′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 75–17–7
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Erzurumspor FK win: 46% at kick-off, 76% now
38′M. Cardoso scores for Erzurumspor FK on 37′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
38′We said Erzurumspor FK at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
38′⚽ GOAL · 37' Erzurumspor FK 2–0 Eyüpspor · M. Cardoso
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Erzurumspor FK win: 46% at kick-off, 94% now
42′GOAL DISALLOWED · 37' M. Cardoso · Erzurumspor FK
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Erzurumspor FK win: 46% at kick-off, 77% now
45′HALF-TIME Erzurumspor FK 1–0 Eyüpspor
46′SECOND HALF Erzurumspor FK 1–0 Eyüpspor
47′A goal for Erzurumspor FK on 46′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
47′We said Erzurumspor FK at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
47′⚽ GOAL · 46' Erzurumspor FK 2–0 Eyüpspor
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Erzurumspor FK win: 46% at kick-off, 95% now
50′E. Tozlu scores for Erzurumspor FK on 47′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Erzurumspor FK win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
55′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Eyüpspor · On: D. Costa · Off: B. Boutobba Corrected
56′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Eyüpspor · On: T. Ulvan · Off: K. Michalak Corrected
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Eyüpspor · On: M. Demir · Off: Y. Barasi Corrected
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Eyüpspor · On: A. Sabiri · Off: C. Raux Yao Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Erzurumspor FK · On: I. Diabate · Off: M. Cardoso Corrected
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Erzurumspor FK · On: G. Kerk · Off: E. Tozlu Corrected
81′We said Erzurumspor FK at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Erzurumspor FK · On: S. Akgun · Off: E. Owusu Corrected
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Eyüpspor · On: D. Costa · Off: I. Taskin Corrected
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Erzurumspor FK · On: C. Bayrak · Off: M. Rodriguez Corrected
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Erzurumspor FK · On: L. Agyekum · Off: G. Giorbelidze Corrected
FTFULL TIME Erzurumspor FK 2–0 Eyüpspor
FTErzurumspor FK 2–0 Eyüpspor · Erzurumspor FK win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Erzurumspor FK are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Erzurumspor FK 46%, draw 28%, Eyüpspor 26%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Erzurumspor FK v EyüpsporBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Erzurumspor FK win46%

Draw28%

Eyüpspor win26%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 11:30

RoundMatchday 8

RefereeE. Mertoglu

Line-ups

Erzurumspor FK

5-3-2

Eyüpspor

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Erzurumspor FK

Eyüpspor

7Days since last match5

Last match: 10 Oct · Süper Lig

Last match: 12 Oct · Süper Lig

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Erzurumspor FK	7	−8	8
18	Eyüpspor	7	−18	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Erzurumspor FK

5-3-2

1 E. Taskiran

53 O. Ovacikli

4 A. Gerxhaliu

22 M. Yumlu

18 N. Mujakic

15 G. Giorbelidze

6 B. Baiye

42 E. Owusu

65 M. Rodriguez

20 M. Cardoso

10 E. Tozlu

Coach · Serkan Ozbalta

Substitutes

31 · M. Orbanic

3 · Y. Kirtay

23 · C. Bayrak

8 · S. Akgun

77 · L. Agyekum

21 · E. Acar

99 · M. Fettahoglu

19 · I. Diabate

90 · N. Akhundzade

9 · G. Kerk

Eyüpspor

3-4-2-1

1 E. Bilgin

5 J. El Yamiq

4 A. Yasar

33 Z. Jules

77 K. Michalak

88 Massanga Matondo

28 I. Taskin

21 S. Giordano

98 B. Boutobba

15 C. Raux Yao

9 Y. Barasi

Coach · Mustafa Dalci

Substitutes

31 · H. Moldovan

7 · T. Ulvan

27 · Y. Demir

42 · B. K. Satli

18 · H. Akman

10 · A. Sabiri

8 · D. Costa

70 · M. Demir

53 · M. Karakas

11 · L. Pintor

Our number · erzurumspor fk winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:49 · locked at kick-off

46% The market61%

Us46%

~~Market~~61%

We make Erzurumspor FK a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 15 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Erzurumspor FK v Eyüpspor~~1.47 – 1.04

~~Form · last six in Süper Lig this season · since 21 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 8 v 3~~14 v 18

~~The market · Erzurumspor FK win~~61% · ours 46%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Erzurumspor FK win The market, margin stripped

Published at 44%, 46% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Erzurumspor FK win	46%	61%	−15
Draw	28%	24%	+4
Eyüpspor win	26%	15%	+11
Over 2.5 goals	46%	46%	0
Both teams to score	50%	44%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	72%	70%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	25%	25%	0
Erzurumspor FK or draw	74%	85%	−11
Erzurumspor FK clean sheet	36%	–	–
Eyüpspor clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 9.5 7.4 4.4 1 10.9 13.3 6.3 2.2 2 8.7 8.9 4.6 3 4.3 4.4 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Erzurumspor FK down, Eyüpspor across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,813 Süper Lig matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Süper Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.4% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.17 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Erzurumspor FK at home: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 3). Eyüpspor away: 1.00 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Erzurumspor FK, 1.04 for Eyüpspor. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 17 Oct 11:04. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.17

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ERZ 0–4 EYU · EYU 3–0 ERZ · EYU 1–1 ERZ · ERZ 0–1 EYU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Süper Lig this season · since 21 Aug

ERZURUMSPOR FK

LDWLWD0–4 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 0–0

EYÜPSPOR

LWLLLL0–1 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 0–8 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Galatasaray	7	+5	16
2	Beşiktaş	7	+8	15
3	Amed	7	+8	14
4	Fenerbahçe	7	+13	13
5	Trabzonspor	7	+11	13
6	Çorum FK	8	+5	13
7	Alanyaspor	7	+2	12
8	Kocaelispor	7	+2	12
9	Kasımpaşa	7	0	10
10	Rizespor	8	−3	10
11	Başakşehir	7	−1	8
12	Gaziantep FK	7	−3	8
13	Gençlerbirliği S.K.	7	−8	8
14	Erzurumspor FK	7	−8	8
15	Göztepe	7	0	6
16	Konyaspor	7	−4	5
17	Samsunspor	7	−9	4
18	Eyüpspor	7	−18	3