Erzurumspor FK v Çorum FK prediction · Süper Lig

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Erzurumspor FKDrawÇorum FK

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 10:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Erzurumspor FK 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Erzurumspor FK are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Erzurumspor FK 39%, draw 27%, Çorum FK 34%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Erzurumspor FK v Çorum FKBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Erzurumspor FK win39%

Draw27%

Çorum FK win34%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 10:30

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Erzurumspor FK

Çorum FK

7Days since last match15

Last match: 24 Oct · Süper Lig

Last match: 16 Oct · Süper Lig

2Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Erzurumspor FK	9	−4	14
9	Çorum FK	8	+5	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · erzurumspor fk winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Erzurumspor FK a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Erzurumspor FK v Çorum FK~~1.48 – 1.38

~~Form · last six in Süper Lig this season · since 31 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 14 v 13~~8 v 9

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Erzurumspor FK win	39%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Çorum FK win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Erzurumspor FK or draw	66%	–	–
Erzurumspor FK clean sheet	26%	–	–
Çorum FK clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 6.9 7.0 5.5 2.5 1 7.6 12.4 7.9 3.7 2 6.3 8.4 5.8 2.7 3 3.1 4.2 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Erzurumspor FK down, Çorum FK across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,825 Süper Lig matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Süper Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.2% of games this season, across 76 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Erzurumspor FK at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 4). Çorum FK away: 3.00 scored, 2.25 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Erzurumspor FK, 1.38 for Çorum FK. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~COR 1–1 ERZ · ERZ 1–0 COR · ERZ 1–1 COR · COR 0–1 ERZ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Süper Lig this season · since 31 Aug

ERZURUMSPOR FK

WLWDWW1–0 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 3–1

ÇORUM FK

LWWLWW2–6 · 3–0 · 5–1 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Amed	9	+10	20
2	Galatasaray	8	+6	19
3	Fenerbahçe	8	+16	16
4	Trabzonspor	8	+13	16
5	Kasımpaşa	9	+4	16
6	Beşiktaş	8	+6	15
7	Kocaelispor	9	+2	15
8	Erzurumspor FK	9	−4	14
9	Çorum FK	8	+5	13
10	Alanyaspor	9	−2	12
11	Başakşehir	8	0	11
12	Rizespor	8	−3	10
13	Göztepe	8	+1	9
14	Gaziantep FK	9	−6	8
15	Gençlerbirliği S.K.	8	−9	8
16	Konyaspor	8	−5	5
17	Samsunspor	9	−13	4
18	Eyüpspor	9	−21	3