Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.1

Home › Football › Süper Lig › Çorum FK v Rizespor

Back
Turkey flag

Çorum FK v Rizespor

Çorum FK
2–1Full time
Rizespor

Süper Lig · FRI 16 OCT · Corum Stadyumu

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 21:01
Çorum FK 2–1 Rizespor ÇORUM FK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Çorum FK win48%
The market said47%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.408
The market’s Brier score0.420

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 32 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Çorum FK win at 48%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Çorum FK was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–23–28
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Çorum FK v Rizespor
  4. 12′🟨 YELLOW · 11' Rizespor
  5. 27′SUBSTITUTION · 25' Çorum FK · On: A. Sengul · Off: A. Borza
  6. 27′🟨 YELLOW · 27' B. Ozdemir · Çorum FK
  7. 32′32′: Q. Laci on the scoresheet for Rizespor, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 18–25–57
  8. 32′We said Çorum FK at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 0–1 · 18–25–57
  9. 32′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 0–1 · 18–25–57
  10. 32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Çorum FK 0–1 Rizespor · Q. Laci
  11. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Çorum FK win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
  12. 32′THE CALL SWINGS · 32' Rizespor win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Çorum FK win 18%)
  13. 37′9 shots for Rizespor, 3 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 42–32–26
  14. 37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Çorum FK 1–1 Rizespor
  15. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Çorum FK win: 48% at kick-off, 42% now
  16. 37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Çorum FK win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Rizespor win 26%)
  17. 38′Çorum FK level it on 38′ through C. Under. 1–1. 1–1 · 41–32–26
  18. 45′HALF-TIME Çorum FK 1–1 Rizespor
  19. 46′SECOND HALF Çorum FK 1–1 Rizespor
  20. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Çorum FK · On: Y. Ramadani · Off: M. Diomande
  21. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Çorum FK win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
  22. 53′We said Çorum FK at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 36%. 1–1 · 36–40–24
  23. 54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Çorum FK win 36%)
  24. 57′We said Çorum FK at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–43–23
  25. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Rizespor · On: E. Bulut · Off: V. Mihaila
  26. 66′We said Çorum FK at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–51–20
  27. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Çorum FK win: 48% at kick-off, 28% now
  28. 72′We said Çorum FK at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–59–17
  29. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Çorum FK · On: Y. Moukoko · Off: J. Ramirez
  30. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Rizespor · On: M. Diakite · Off: I. Olawoyin
  31. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Rizespor · On: G. Borrelli · Off: A. Sowe
  32. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Çorum FK win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
  33. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Rizespor · On: I. Doicaru · Off: A. Mebude
  34. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Çorum FK · On: E. Mahmic · Off: C. Under
  35. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Çorum FK · On: M. Karlsbakk · Off: B. Ozdemir
  36. 80′We published Çorum FK at 48%. Our model now makes it 89%. 2–1 · 89–11–1
  37. 80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Çorum FK 2–1 Rizespor
  38. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Çorum FK win: 48% at kick-off, 89% now
  39. 80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Çorum FK win is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Draw 11%)
  40. 81′Y. Moukoko scores for Çorum FK on 80′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 90–10–1
  41. 81′We published Çorum FK at 48%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
  42. 82′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Rizespor
  43. 83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Çorum FK
  44. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Rizespor · On: D. Varesanovic · Off: Q. Laci
  45. 88′We published Çorum FK at 48%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
  46. 90′Full time, 2–1. We called Çorum FK at 48% — that one lands. 2–1 · 100–0–0
  47. 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Çorum FK win: 48% at kick-off, 98% now
  48. FTFULL TIME Çorum FK 2–1 Rizespor
  49. FTÇorum FK 2–1 Rizespor · Çorum FK win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Çorum FK are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Çorum FK 48%, draw 25%, Rizespor 27%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Çorum FK v RizesporBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Çorum FK win48%
Draw25%
Rizespor win27%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueCorum Stadyumu

RefereeD. Celik

Line-ups

Çorum FK

3-4-3

Rizespor

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Çorum FK

Rizespor

5Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Süper Lig

Last match: 10 Oct · Süper Lig

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
8Çorum FK7+410
10Rizespor7−210

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Çorum FK

3-4-3

1 Marcos Felipe

5 Alexandre Penetra

2 C. Soyuncu

6 H. Smolcic

11 G. Sazdagi

3 B. Ozdemir

10 M. Diomande

24 A. Borza

7 C. Under

19 J. Ramirez

89 A. Kyziridis

Coach · Tamer Sivrikaya

Substitutes

18 · E. Erenturk

15 · A. Sengul

88 · C. Sertel

20 · Y. Ramadani

30 · A. Ildiz

26 · E. Mahmic

8 · M. Karlsbakk

21 · G. Gurpuz

9 · M. Thiam

14 · Y. Moukoko

Rizespor

4-1-4-1

75 Y. Fofana

54 M. Pala

21 S. Bakayoko

93 M. Sagnan

17 Z. Ariss

14 T. Antalyali

11 A. Mebude

10 I. Olawoyin

20 Q. Laci

7 V. Mihaila

9 A. Sowe

Coach · Recep Ucar

Substitutes

30 · Z. Gorgen

97 · E. Dogan

5 · T. T. Sanuc

37 · T. Sahin

19 · U. Erdem

6 · M. Diakite

8 · D. Varesanovic

79 · I. Doicaru

29 · G. Borrelli

99 · E. Bulut

Our number · çorum fk winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 12 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off
48% The market47%
Us48%
Market47%

We make Çorum FK a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Çorum FK v Rizespor1.81 – 1.33
Form · last six in Süper Lig this season · since 22 AugW3 D0 L3 · W2 D1 L3
Table places · points 10 v 108 v 10
The market · Çorum FK win47% · ours 48%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 10 OCT 03:5916 OCT 17:43
Our probability · Çorum FK win The market, margin stripped

Published at 45%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Çorum FK win48%47%+1
Draw25%25%0
Rizespor win27%28%−1
Over 2.5 goals60%60%0
Both teams to score62%61%+1
Over 1.5 goals83%81%+2
Over 3.5 goals38%39%−1
Çorum FK or draw73%72%+1
Çorum FK clean sheet27%––
Rizespor clean sheet17%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%
0123450 5.5 4.9 3.9 1 7.0 11.2 6.8 3.0 2 7.1 9.2 6.0 2.7 3 4.3 5.6 3.7 4 2.0 2.6 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Çorum FK down, Rizespor across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Süper Lig this season · since 22 Aug

ÇORUM FK

LLWWLW0–1 · 2–6 · 3–0 · 5–1 · 1–2 · 3–0

RIZESPOR

LWLWDL0–2 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 0–3

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Galatasaray7+516
2Beşiktaş7+815
3Amed7+814
4Fenerbahçe7+1313
5Trabzonspor7+1113
6Alanyaspor7+212
7Kocaelispor7+212
8Çorum FK7+410
9Kasımpaşa7010
10Rizespor7−210
11Başakşehir7−18
12Gaziantep FK7−38
13Gençlerbirliği S.K.7−88
14Erzurumspor FK7−88
15Göztepe706
16Konyaspor7−45
17Samsunspor7−94
18Eyüpspor7−183

The competition's standings before kick-off.