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Beşiktaş v Kocaelispor

Beşiktaş

2–1Full time

Kocaelispor

Süper Lig · SUN 11 OCT · Tupras Stadium

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Beşiktaş 2–1 Kocaelispor BEŞIKTAŞ WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Beşiktaş win~~57%

~~The market said~~77%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.279

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.080

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 36 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Beşiktaş win at 57%.
1′Much as we predicted: Beşiktaş was 57% before kick-off and our model makes it 58% now. 0–0 · 58–25–17
19′O. Kokcu scores for Beşiktaş on 18′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 83–13–4
20′O. Kokcu scores for Beşiktaş on 18′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 83–13–4
22′We published Beşiktaş at 57%. Our model now makes it 83%. 1–0 · 83–13–4
27′27′ and it is 1–1: Show on the scoresheet for Kocaelispor. 1–1 · 51–32–17
32′Beşiktaş ahead on 31′ through D. Vlahovic. 2–1. 2–1 · 83–13–4
33′Beşiktaş ahead on 31′ through D. Vlahovic. 2–1. 2–1 · 83–13–3
34′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 83–13–3
51′We published Beşiktaş at 57%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
55′We published Beşiktaş at 57%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Kocaelispor · On: R. Rivas · Off: G. Sousa
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Beşiktaş win: 57% at kick-off, 87% now
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Beşiktaş win: 57% at kick-off, 86% now
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Beşiktaş win: 57% at kick-off, 86% now
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Beşiktaş win: 57% at kick-off, 87% now
65′⚽ GOAL · 18' Beşiktaş 2–1 Kocaelispor · O. Kokcu (assist V. Cerny)
65′⚽ GOAL · 27' Beşiktaş 2–1 Kocaelispor · Show
65′🟨 YELLOW · 29' T. Bingol · Kocaelispor
65′⚽ GOAL · 31' Beşiktaş 2–1 Kocaelispor · D. Vlahovic
65′SUBSTITUTION · 39' Beşiktaş · On: I. Fakili · Off: V. Cerny
65′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Kocaelispor · On: R. Rivas · Off: G. Sousa
70′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Kocaelispor · On: F. Aye · Off: D. Agyei
70′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Kocaelispor · On: T. Gulliksen · Off: T. Bingol
70′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Beşiktaş · On: K. Kayra Yilmaz · Off: S. Ozcan Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Beşiktaş · On: K. Ouattara · Off: R. Yilmaz
71′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Beşiktaş · On: E. Agbadou · Off: E. Topcu
72′We published Beşiktaş at 57%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' S. Oztasdelen · Kocaelispor
78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' L. Trossard · Beşiktaş
85′We published Beşiktaş at 57%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–1 · 96–4–0
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Beşiktaş · On: K. Kayra Yilmaz · Off: O. Kokcu
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Kocaelispor · On: M. Baku · Off: O. Oztonga
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Kocaelispor · On: M. Cinan · Off: U. Yildiz
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Beşiktaş win: 57% at kick-off, 98% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Beşiktaş win: 57% at kick-off, 94% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Beşiktaş win: 57% at kick-off, 98% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Beşiktaş win: 57% at kick-off, 94% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Beşiktaş win: 57% at kick-off, 98% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Beşiktaş win: 57% at kick-off, 94% now
91′We published Beşiktaş at 57%. Our model now makes it 100%. 2–1 · 100–0–0
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 91' Beşiktaş win: 57% at kick-off, 98% now
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 91' Beşiktaş win: 57% at kick-off, 94% now
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 91' Beşiktaş win: 57% at kick-off, 100% now
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 92' Beşiktaş win: 57% at kick-off, 100% now
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 92' Beşiktaş win: 57% at kick-off, 94% now
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 93' Beşiktaş win: 57% at kick-off, 100% now
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 93' Beşiktaş win: 57% at kick-off, 94% now
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 94' Beşiktaş win: 57% at kick-off, 100% now
FTFULL TIME Beşiktaş 2–1 Kocaelispor
FTBeşiktaş 2–1 Kocaelispor · Beşiktaş win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Beşiktaş win57%

Draw26%

Kocaelispor win16%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 17:00

VenueTupras Stadium

RefereeA. B. Taskinsoy

Line-ups

Beşiktaş

4-1-4-1

Kocaelispor

5-3-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Beşiktaş

Kocaelispor

21Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Beşiktaş	6	+7	12
6	Kocaelispor	6	+3	12

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Beşiktaş

4-1-4-1

1 A. Nubel

62 M. Murillo

35 T. Djalo

53 E. Topcu

33 R. Yilmaz

6 S. Ozcan

18 V. Cerny

21 F. Miretti

10 O. Kokcu

19 L. Trossard

28 D. Vlahovic

Coach · Vincenzo Italiano

Substitutes

80 · D. Alemdar

12 · E. Agbadou

22 · T. Bulut

11 · K. Ouattara

15 · J. Olaitan

4 · W. Ndidi

8 · K. Kayra Yilmaz

9 · Oh Hyeon-Gyu

17 · E. Poku

29 · I. Fakili

Kocaelispor

5-3-2

83 S. Oztasdelen

22 U. Yildiz

41 O. Oztonga

5 E. Ortakaya

14 Show

11 G. Sousa

20 M. Susoho

10 B. Kutlu

75 T. Bingol

26 M. Altunbas

7 D. Agyei

Coach · Selcuk Inan

Substitutes

23 · O. Piri

3 · M. Cinan

16 · D. Ceylan

27 · E. Bilim

8 · T. Gulliksen

18 · H. Destici

99 · R. Rivas

97 · F. Aye

32 · M. Baku

89 · B. Yildiz

Our number · beşiktaş winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

57% The market77%

Us57%

~~Market~~77%

We make Beşiktaş a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 77%. We are 20 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · beşiktaş win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 74% to 77% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Beşiktaş win	57%	77%	−20
Draw	26%	15%	+12
Kocaelispor win	16%	8%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	43%	64%	−21
Both teams to score	43%	48%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	70%	83%	−13
Over 3.5 goals	22%	44%	−21
Beşiktaş or draw	84%	92%	−8
Beşiktaş clean sheet	47%	–	–
Kocaelispor clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.9%

0123450 10.3 6.0 2.7 1 13.9 12.1 4.2 2 12.1 9.0 3.4 3 6.6 4.9 4 2.8 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Beşiktaş down, Kocaelispor across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,808 Süper Lig matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Süper Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.6% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Beşiktaş at home: 2.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Kocaelispor away: 0.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for Beşiktaş, 0.76 for Kocaelispor. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~KOC 0–1 BES · BES 3–1 KOC

Form · last six in Süper Lig

BEŞIKTAŞ

WLWWWL1–0 · 0–1 · 6–2 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 2–3

KOCAELISPOR

LWWWLW0–2 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Galatasaray	7	+5	16
2	Amed	7	+8	14
3	Fenerbahçe	7	+13	13
4	Trabzonspor	7	+11	13
5	Beşiktaş	6	+7	12
6	Kocaelispor	6	+3	12
7	Alanyaspor	7	+2	12
8	Kasımpaşa	7	0	10
9	Rizespor	7	−2	10
10	Gaziantep FK	6	0	8
11	Gençlerbirliği S.K.	7	−8	8
12	Erzurumspor FK	7	−8	8
13	Çorum FK	6	+1	7
14	Başakşehir	6	−1	7
15	Konyaspor	6	−4	4
16	Samsunspor	7	−9	4
17	Göztepe	6	−4	3
18	Eyüpspor	6	−14	3