Beşiktaş v Başakşehir prediction · Süper Lig

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

BeşiktaşDrawBaşakşehir

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Beşiktaş 49%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Beşiktaş are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Beşiktaş 49%, draw 25%, Başakşehir 25%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Beşiktaş v BaşakşehirBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Beşiktaş win49%

Draw25%

Başakşehir win25%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueTupras Stadium

RefereeU. Ozturk

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Beşiktaş

Başakşehir

4Days since last match8

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League

Last match: 18 Oct · Süper Lig

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Beşiktaş	8	+6	15
11	Başakşehir	8	0	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · beşiktaş winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

49% The market69%

Us49%

~~Market~~69%

We make Beşiktaş a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 69%. We are 20 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Beşiktaş v Başakşehir~~1.74 – 1.19

~~Form · last six in Süper Lig this season · since 30 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 15 v 11~~6 v 11

~~The market · Beşiktaş win~~69% · ours 49%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Beşiktaş win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 69% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Beşiktaş win	49%	69%	−20
Draw	25%	18%	+7
Başakşehir win	25%	13%	+12
Over 2.5 goals	56%	67%	−11
Both teams to score	57%	58%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	79%	85%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	34%	47%	−13
Beşiktaş or draw	75%	87%	−12
Beşiktaş clean sheet	31%	–	–
Başakşehir clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.5 5.6 3.8 1 8.5 11.8 6.5 2.6 2 8.1 9.4 5.5 2.2 3 4.7 5.5 3.2 4 2.1 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Beşiktaş down, Başakşehir across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,825 Süper Lig matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Süper Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.2% of games this season, across 76 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Beşiktaş at home: 2.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Başakşehir away: 0.83 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.74 goals for Beşiktaş, 1.19 for Başakşehir. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BAS 2–3 BES · BES 2–1 BAS · BES 0–2 BAS · BAS 0–0 BES

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Süper Lig this season · since 30 Aug

BEŞIKTAŞ

WWWLWL6–2 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 0–2

BAŞAKŞEHIR

DLLWDW1–1 · 2–3 · 0–5 · 4–0 · 0–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Amed	9	+10	20
2	Galatasaray	8	+6	19
3	Fenerbahçe	8	+16	16
4	Trabzonspor	8	+13	16
5	Kasımpaşa	9	+4	16
6	Beşiktaş	8	+6	15
7	Kocaelispor	9	+2	15
8	Erzurumspor FK	9	−4	14
9	Çorum FK	8	+5	13
10	Alanyaspor	9	−2	12
11	Başakşehir	8	0	11
12	Rizespor	8	−3	10
13	Göztepe	8	+1	9
14	Gaziantep FK	9	−6	8
15	Gençlerbirliği S.K.	8	−9	8
16	Konyaspor	8	−5	5
17	Samsunspor	9	−13	4
18	Eyüpspor	9	−21	3