

Başakşehir v Gaziantep FK
Başakşehir
Gaziantep FKSüper Lig · SUN 18 OCT · Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Başakşehir win at 60%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Başakşehir 60% before kick-off, 60% now. 0–0 · 60–23–17
- 1′KICK-OFF Başakşehir v Gaziantep FK
- 8′We said Başakşehir at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 83%. 1–0 · 83–11–6
- 8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Başakşehir 1–0 Gaziantep FK
- 8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Başakşehir win: 60% at kick-off, 83% now
- 9′A goal for Başakşehir on 9′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 83–11–6
- 29′We said Başakşehir at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
- 29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Başakşehir 2–0 Gaziantep FK
- 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Başakşehir win: 60% at kick-off, 95% now
- 30′Başakşehir score on 30′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
- 32′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 82–13–5
- 32′GOAL DISALLOWED · 30' I. Brnic · Başakşehir
- 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Başakşehir win: 60% at kick-off, 82% now
- 45′SECOND HALF Başakşehir 1–0 Gaziantep FK
- 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Gaziantep FK · On: A. Maxim · Off: V. Gidado
- 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Gaziantep FK · On: K. Calhanoglu · Off: A. Sylla
- 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Başakşehir · On: O. Sahiner · Off: S. Kharebashvili
- 47′HALF-TIME Başakşehir 1–0 Gaziantep FK
- 47′🟨 YELLOW · 45+3' Başakşehir
- 51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Başakşehir
- 58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Gaziantep FK · On: S. Dursun · Off: T. Stewart
- 59′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Başakşehir · On: U. Gunes · Off: J. Kaluzinski
- 59′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Başakşehir · On: Y. Sari · Off: A. Skov Olsen
- 59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' D. Camara · Gaziantep FK
- 61′We said Başakşehir at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
- 66′We said Başakşehir at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–52–14
- 66′12 shots for Başakşehir, 3 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 34–52–14
- 66′66′: S. Dursun on the scoresheet for Gaziantep FK, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 34–52–14
- 66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Başakşehir 1–1 Gaziantep FK
- 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Başakşehir win: 60% at kick-off, 34% now
- 66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Draw is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Başakşehir win 34%)
- 67′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Gaziantep FK · On: K. Gassama · Off: D. Camara
- 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Başakşehir win: 60% at kick-off, 30% now
- 71′We said Başakşehir at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–58–13
- 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Başakşehir · On: B. Yildirim · Off: U. Bozok
- 74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Başakşehir · On: E. Visca · Off: I. Brnic
- 75′🟨 YELLOW · 36' O. Ak · Gaziantep FK
- 76′We said Başakşehir at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–66–11
- 76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' O. Ba · Başakşehir
- 79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Başakşehir
- 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Başakşehir win: 60% at kick-off, 20% now
- 80′We said Başakşehir at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 1–1 · 18–73–8
- 81′We said Başakşehir at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 2–1 · 92–7–0
- 81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Başakşehir 2–1 Gaziantep FK
- 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Başakşehir win: 60% at kick-off, 92% now
- 81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Başakşehir win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 7%)
- 81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Gaziantep FK
- 83′Başakşehir ahead on 81′ through U. Gunes. 2–1. 2–1 · 94–6–0
- 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Gaziantep FK · On: S. Destici · Off: L. Perez
- 87′🟨 YELLOW · 85' K. Kozlowski · Gaziantep FK
- 89′🟨 YELLOW · 87' S. Dursun · Gaziantep FK
- FTFULL TIME Başakşehir 2–1 Gaziantep FK
- FTBaşakşehir 2–1 Gaziantep FK · Başakşehir win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Başakşehir are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Başakşehir 60%, draw 23%, Gaziantep FK 17%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 54%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Başakşehir win60%
Gaziantep FK win17%Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 17:00
RoundMatchday 8
VenueBasaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium
RefereeA. Sen
Match timeline
All events
BaşakşehirMIN
Gaziantep FKEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Başakşehir
4-2-3-1
Gaziantep FK
4-4-2
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Başakşehir
Gaziantep FK
Last match: 11 Oct · Süper Lig
Last match: 11 Oct · Süper Lig
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Başakşehir
4-2-3-1
16 M. Sengezer
33 M. Karbownik
23 E. Bayram
27 O. Ba
38 S. Kharebashvili
8 O. Kemen
18 J. Kaluzinski
70 A. Skov Olsen
14 E. Shomurodov
77 I. Brnic
17 U. Bozok
Coach · Nuri Sahin
Substitutes
98 · D. Dilmen
42 · O. Sahiner
15 · H. Gureler
19 · B. Ozcan
4 · O. Ergun
20 · U. Gunes
10 · E. Visca
7 · Y. Sari
11 · A. Fayzullaev
91 · B. Yildirim
Gaziantep FK
4-4-2
25 K. Tobiasz
2 L. Perez
4 A. Kizildag
14 M. Abena
21 A. Sylla
18 D. Sorescu
8 V. Gidado
61 O. Ozcicek
3 D. Camara
9 T. Stewart
10 K. Kozlowski
Coach · Orhan Ak
Substitutes
35 · A. Dadakdeniz
23 · K. Calhanoglu
77 · S. Destici
5 · E. Sarikaya
7 · J. Bacuna
44 · A. Maxim
17 · K. Gassama
19 · S. Dursun
28 · H. Dervisoglu
22 · S. Hansen
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Başakşehir
4-2-3-1
16 M. Sengezer
33 M. Karbownik
23 E. Bayram
27 O. Ba
38 S. Kharebashvili
8 O. Kemen
18 J. Kaluzinski
70 A. Skov Olsen
14 E. Shomurodov
77 I. Brnic
17 U. Bozok
Coach · Nuri Sahin
Substitutes
98 · D. Dilmen
42 · O. Sahiner
15 · H. Gureler
19 · B. Ozcan
4 · O. Ergun
20 · U. Gunes
10 · E. Visca
7 · Y. Sari
11 · A. Fayzullaev
91 · B. Yildirim
Gaziantep FK
4-4-2
25 K. Tobiasz
2 L. Perez
4 A. Kizildag
14 M. Abena
21 A. Sylla
18 D. Sorescu
8 V. Gidado
61 O. Ozcicek
3 D. Camara
9 T. Stewart
10 K. Kozlowski
Coach · Orhan Ak
Substitutes
35 · A. Dadakdeniz
23 · K. Calhanoglu
77 · S. Destici
5 · E. Sarikaya
7 · J. Bacuna
44 · A. Maxim
17 · K. Gassama
19 · S. Dursun
28 · H. Dervisoglu
22 · S. Hansen
We make Başakşehir a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.0.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 56% to 57% in the same time.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Başakşehir win | 60% | 57% | +3 |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | +1 |
| Gaziantep FK win | 17% | 21% | −4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 64% | −7 |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 62% | −8 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | 83% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 43% | −8 |
| Başakşehir or draw | 83% | 79% | +4 |
| Başakşehir clean sheet | 38% | – | – |
| Gaziantep FK clean sheet | 14% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Süper Lig this season · since 23 Aug
BAŞAKŞEHIR
GAZIANTEP FK
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray | 8 | +6 | 19 |
| 2 | Amed | 8 | +9 | 17 |
| 3 | Fenerbahçe | 8 | +16 | 16 |
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 7 | +8 | 15 |
| 5 | Trabzonspor | 7 | +11 | 13 |
| 6 | Çorum FK | 8 | +5 | 13 |
| 7 | Kasımpaşa | 8 | +3 | 13 |
| 8 | Kocaelispor | 8 | +1 | 12 |
| 9 | Alanyaspor | 8 | −1 | 12 |
| 10 | Erzurumspor FK | 8 | −6 | 11 |
| 11 | Rizespor | 8 | −3 | 10 |
| 12 | Göztepe | 8 | +1 | 9 |
| 13 | Başakşehir | 7 | −1 | 8 |
| 14 | Gaziantep FK | 7 | −3 | 8 |
| 15 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 8 | −9 | 8 |
| 16 | Konyaspor | 8 | −5 | 5 |
| 17 | Samsunspor | 8 | −12 | 4 |
| 18 | Eyüpspor | 8 | −20 | 3 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Galatasaray
Amed
Fenerbahçe
Beşiktaş
Trabzonspor
Çorum FK
Kasımpaşa
Kocaelispor
Alanyaspor
Erzurumspor FK
Rizespor
Göztepe
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Konyaspor
Samsunspor
Eyüpspor