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Başakşehir v Gaziantep FK

Başakşehir
2–1Full time
Gaziantep FK

Süper Lig · SUN 18 OCT · Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 19:31
Başakşehir 2–1 Gaziantep FK BAŞAKŞEHIR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Başakşehir win60%
The market said57%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.236
The market’s Brier score0.276

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 37 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Başakşehir win at 60%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Başakşehir 60% before kick-off, 60% now. 0–0 · 60–23–17
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Başakşehir v Gaziantep FK
  4. 8′We said Başakşehir at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 83%. 1–0 · 83–11–6
  5. 8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Başakşehir 1–0 Gaziantep FK
  6. 8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Başakşehir win: 60% at kick-off, 83% now
  7. 9′A goal for Başakşehir on 9′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 83–11–6
  8. 29′We said Başakşehir at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  9. 29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Başakşehir 2–0 Gaziantep FK
  10. 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Başakşehir win: 60% at kick-off, 95% now
  11. 30′Başakşehir score on 30′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  12. 32′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 82–13–5
  13. 32′GOAL DISALLOWED · 30' I. Brnic · Başakşehir
  14. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Başakşehir win: 60% at kick-off, 82% now
  15. 45′SECOND HALF Başakşehir 1–0 Gaziantep FK
  16. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Gaziantep FK · On: A. Maxim · Off: V. Gidado
  17. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Gaziantep FK · On: K. Calhanoglu · Off: A. Sylla
  18. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Başakşehir · On: O. Sahiner · Off: S. Kharebashvili
  19. 47′HALF-TIME Başakşehir 1–0 Gaziantep FK
  20. 47′🟨 YELLOW · 45+3' Başakşehir
  21. 51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Başakşehir
  22. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Gaziantep FK · On: S. Dursun · Off: T. Stewart
  23. 59′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Başakşehir · On: U. Gunes · Off: J. Kaluzinski
  24. 59′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Başakşehir · On: Y. Sari · Off: A. Skov Olsen
  25. 59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' D. Camara · Gaziantep FK
  26. 61′We said Başakşehir at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
  27. 66′We said Başakşehir at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–52–14
  28. 66′12 shots for Başakşehir, 3 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 34–52–14
  29. 66′66′: S. Dursun on the scoresheet for Gaziantep FK, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 34–52–14
  30. 66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Başakşehir 1–1 Gaziantep FK
  31. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Başakşehir win: 60% at kick-off, 34% now
  32. 66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Draw is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Başakşehir win 34%)
  33. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Gaziantep FK · On: K. Gassama · Off: D. Camara
  34. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Başakşehir win: 60% at kick-off, 30% now
  35. 71′We said Başakşehir at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–58–13
  36. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Başakşehir · On: B. Yildirim · Off: U. Bozok
  37. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Başakşehir · On: E. Visca · Off: I. Brnic
  38. 75′🟨 YELLOW · 36' O. Ak · Gaziantep FK
  39. 76′We said Başakşehir at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–66–11
  40. 76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' O. Ba · Başakşehir
  41. 79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Başakşehir
  42. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Başakşehir win: 60% at kick-off, 20% now
  43. 80′We said Başakşehir at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 1–1 · 18–73–8
  44. 81′We said Başakşehir at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 2–1 · 92–7–0
  45. 81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Başakşehir 2–1 Gaziantep FK
  46. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Başakşehir win: 60% at kick-off, 92% now
  47. 81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Başakşehir win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 7%)
  48. 81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Gaziantep FK
  49. 83′Başakşehir ahead on 81′ through U. Gunes. 2–1. 2–1 · 94–6–0
  50. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Gaziantep FK · On: S. Destici · Off: L. Perez
  51. 87′🟨 YELLOW · 85' K. Kozlowski · Gaziantep FK
  52. 89′🟨 YELLOW · 87' S. Dursun · Gaziantep FK
  53. FTFULL TIME Başakşehir 2–1 Gaziantep FK
  54. FTBaşakşehir 2–1 Gaziantep FK · Başakşehir win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Başakşehir are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Başakşehir 60%, draw 23%, Gaziantep FK 17%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Başakşehir v Gaziantep FKBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Başakşehir win60%
Draw23%
Gaziantep FK win17%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueBasaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium

RefereeA. Sen

Line-ups

Başakşehir

4-2-3-1

Gaziantep FK

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Başakşehir

Gaziantep FK

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Süper Lig

Last match: 11 Oct · Süper Lig

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
13Başakşehir7−18
14Gaziantep FK7−38

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Başakşehir

4-2-3-1

16 M. Sengezer

33 M. Karbownik

23 E. Bayram

27 O. Ba

38 S. Kharebashvili

8 O. Kemen

18 J. Kaluzinski

70 A. Skov Olsen

14 E. Shomurodov

77 I. Brnic

17 U. Bozok

Coach · Nuri Sahin

Substitutes

98 · D. Dilmen

42 · O. Sahiner

15 · H. Gureler

19 · B. Ozcan

4 · O. Ergun

20 · U. Gunes

10 · E. Visca

7 · Y. Sari

11 · A. Fayzullaev

91 · B. Yildirim

Gaziantep FK

4-4-2

25 K. Tobiasz

2 L. Perez

4 A. Kizildag

14 M. Abena

21 A. Sylla

18 D. Sorescu

8 V. Gidado

61 O. Ozcicek

3 D. Camara

9 T. Stewart

10 K. Kozlowski

Coach · Orhan Ak

Substitutes

35 · A. Dadakdeniz

23 · K. Calhanoglu

77 · S. Destici

5 · E. Sarikaya

7 · J. Bacuna

44 · A. Maxim

17 · K. Gassama

19 · S. Dursun

28 · H. Dervisoglu

22 · S. Hansen

Our number · başakşehir winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
60% The market57%
Us60%
Market57%

We make Başakşehir a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Başakşehir v Gaziantep FK2.03 – 0.98
Form · last six in Süper Lig this season · since 23 AugW1 D2 L3 · W2 D1 L3
Table places · points 8 v 813 v 14
The market · Başakşehir win57% · ours 60%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
55%60%65% 12 OCT 04:0618 OCT 16:32
Our probability · Başakşehir win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 56% to 57% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Başakşehir win60%57%+3
Draw23%22%+1
Gaziantep FK win17%21%−4
Over 2.5 goals57%64%−7
Both teams to score54%62%−8
Over 1.5 goals80%83%−3
Over 3.5 goals35%43%−8
Başakşehir or draw83%79%+4
Başakşehir clean sheet38%––
Gaziantep FK clean sheet14%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%
0123450 6.1 4.1 2.4 1 9.3 10.6 4.8 2 10.1 9.7 4.7 3 6.8 6.5 3.2 4 3.5 3.3 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Başakşehir down, Gaziantep FK across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.70
Over 2.55 of 10
Both scored4 of 10
Last meetingsGAZ 1–2 BAS · BAS 5–1 GAZ · BAS 2–1 GAZ · GAZ 3–0 BAS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Süper Lig this season · since 23 Aug

BAŞAKŞEHIR

LDLLWD1–2 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 0–5 · 4–0 · 0–0

GAZIANTEP FK

WLWDLL1–0 · 1–2 · 4–2 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 0–3

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Galatasaray8+619
2Amed8+917
3Fenerbahçe8+1616
4Beşiktaş7+815
5Trabzonspor7+1113
6Çorum FK8+513
7Kasımpaşa8+313
8Kocaelispor8+112
9Alanyaspor8−112
10Erzurumspor FK8−611
11Rizespor8−310
12Göztepe8+19
13Başakşehir7−18
14Gaziantep FK7−38
15Gençlerbirliği S.K.8−98
16Konyaspor8−55
17Samsunspor8−124
18Eyüpspor8−203

The competition's standings before kick-off.