Home › Football › Süper Lig › Alanyaspor v Erzurumspor FK

Alanyaspor v Erzurumspor FK

Alanyaspor

0–0Full time

Erzurumspor FK

Süper Lig · SAT 10 OCT · Alanya Oba Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

Alanyaspor 0–0 Erzurumspor FK ALANYASPOR WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Alanyaspor win~~52%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.858

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.791

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Alanyaspor win at 52%.
4′Little has changed for our model: Alanyaspor 52% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 53–25–22
4′KICK-OFF Alanyaspor v Erzurumspor FK
29′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Erzurumspor FK
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Alanyaspor win: 52% at kick-off, 42% now
43′🟨 YELLOW · 29' E. Tozlu · Erzurumspor FK
44′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Erzurumspor FK
45′HALF-TIME Alanyaspor 0–0 Erzurumspor FK
47′We said Alanyaspor at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 40%. 0–0 · 40–40–20
47′SECOND HALF Alanyaspor 0–0 Erzurumspor FK
54′We said Alanyaspor at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 37%. 0–0 · 37–45–18
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Alanyaspor win 37%)
59′We said Alanyaspor at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–49–17
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Alanyaspor · On: M. Elia · Off: I. Kaya
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Alanyaspor · On: A. Usluoglu · Off: Bikoue
61′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Alanyaspor · On: P. Fernandes · Off: Hwang Ui-Jo
64′Goalless on 64′ when we expected about 2.6 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 30–54–16
64′🟨 YELLOW · 62' A. Gerxhaliu · Erzurumspor FK
64′🟨 YELLOW · 62' M. Elia · Alanyaspor
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Alanyaspor win: 52% at kick-off, 30% now
66′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Alanyaspor · On: I. Hagi · Off: P. Fernandes Corrected
68′We said Alanyaspor at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 27–58–14
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Erzurumspor FK · On: M. Fettahoglu · Off: M. Cardoso
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Erzurumspor FK · On: I. Diabate · Off: E. Tozlu
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Erzurumspor FK · On: S. Akgun · Off: M. Rodriguez
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Alanyaspor · On: B. Ozyurt · Off: F. Aksoy
86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' F. Hadergjonaj · Alanyaspor
90′🟨 YELLOW · 96' Alanyaspor
FTFULL TIME Alanyaspor 0–0 Erzurumspor FK
FTAlanyaspor 0–0 Erzurumspor FK · Alanyaspor win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Alanyaspor win52%

Draw27%

Erzurumspor FK win21%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

Venue · Alanya Oba Stadium

Referee · D. Celik

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Alanyaspor

3-4-3

48 Paulo Victor

3 N. Lima

5 F. Aliti

20 F. Aksoy

94 F. Hadergjonaj

42 G. Makouta

55 B. Gezek

11 Ruan

7 I. Kaya

19 Bikoue

16 Hwang Ui-Jo

Coach · Joao Pereira

Substitutes

23 · M. Bayram

4 · B. Ozyurt

10 · I. Hagi

8 · E. Keskin

26 · I. Celik

88 · Y. Ozdemir

22 · P. Fernandes

12 · M. Elia

17 · A. Usluoglu

9 · O. Ben Ali

Erzurumspor FK

5-3-2

1 E. Taskiran

53 O. Ovacikli

4 A. Gerxhaliu

22 M. Yumlu

18 N. Mujakic

15 G. Giorbelidze

6 B. Baiye

42 E. Owusu

65 M. Rodriguez

10 E. Tozlu

20 M. Cardoso

Coach · Serkan Ozbalta

Substitutes

31 · M. Orbanic

2 · F. Ebosele

3 · Y. Kirtay

23 · C. Bayrak

25 · O. Kara

8 · S. Akgun

21 · E. Acar

99 · M. Fettahoglu

19 · I. Diabate

90 · N. Akhundzade

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Alanyaspor

3-4-3

48 Paulo Victor

3 N. Lima

5 F. Aliti

20 F. Aksoy

94 F. Hadergjonaj

42 G. Makouta

55 B. Gezek

11 Ruan

7 I. Kaya

19 Bikoue

16 Hwang Ui-Jo

Coach · Joao Pereira

Substitutes

23 · M. Bayram

4 · B. Ozyurt

10 · I. Hagi

8 · E. Keskin

26 · I. Celik

88 · Y. Ozdemir

22 · P. Fernandes

12 · M. Elia

17 · A. Usluoglu

9 · O. Ben Ali

Erzurumspor FK

5-3-2

1 E. Taskiran

53 O. Ovacikli

4 A. Gerxhaliu

22 M. Yumlu

18 N. Mujakic

15 G. Giorbelidze

6 B. Baiye

42 E. Owusu

65 M. Rodriguez

10 E. Tozlu

20 M. Cardoso

Coach · Serkan Ozbalta

Substitutes

31 · M. Orbanic

2 · F. Ebosele

3 · Y. Kirtay

23 · C. Bayrak

25 · O. Kara

8 · S. Akgun

21 · E. Acar

99 · M. Fettahoglu

19 · I. Diabate

90 · N. Akhundzade

Our number · alanyaspor winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

52% The market48%

Us52%

~~Market~~48%

We make Alanyaspor a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · alanyaspor win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 47% to 48% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Alanyaspor win	52%	48%	+4
Draw	27%	29%	−2
Erzurumspor FK win	21%	23%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	48%	41%	+6
Both teams to score	50%	46%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	73%	66%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	26%	21%	+5
Alanyaspor or draw	79%	77%	+2
Alanyaspor clean sheet	39%	–	–
Erzurumspor FK clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 8.8 6.3 3.5 1 11.4 12.5 5.5 2 10.0 9.3 4.4 3 5.5 5.1 2.4 4 2.3 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Alanyaspor down, Erzurumspor FK across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,804 Süper Lig matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Süper Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.4% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Alanyaspor at home: 2.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Erzurumspor FK away: 0.33 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for Alanyaspor, 0.95 for Erzurumspor FK. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 13:40. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Süper Lig

ALANYASPOR

DWLWDW1–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 2–1

ERZURUMSPOR FK

LLDWLW0–3 · 0–4 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Galatasaray	7	+5	16
2	Amed	6	+8	13
3	Beşiktaş	6	+7	12
4	Kocaelispor	6	+3	12
5	Alanyaspor	6	+2	11
6	Fenerbahçe	6	+10	10
7	Trabzonspor	6	+8	10
8	Rizespor	6	+1	10
9	Kasımpaşa	7	0	10
10	Gaziantep FK	6	0	8
11	Çorum FK	6	+1	7
12	Başakşehir	6	−1	7
13	Gençlerbirliği S.K.	6	−8	7
14	Erzurumspor FK	6	−8	7
15	Konyaspor	6	−4	4
16	Samsunspor	6	−6	4
17	Göztepe	6	−4	3
18	Eyüpspor	6	−14	3