Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu v Yozgat Bld Bozokspor prediction · 3. Lig

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:48

Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu 2–0 Yozgat Bld Bozokspor YENI MERSIN IDMANYURDU WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.551

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–27–34
1′KICK-OFF Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu v Yozgat Bld Bozokspor
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu win 35%)
45′HALF-TIME Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu 0–0 Yozgat Bld Bozokspor
46′SECOND HALF Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu 0–0 Yozgat Bld Bozokspor
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+5' Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
52′A goal for Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu on 51′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 74–20–6
52′We published Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu at 40%. Our model now makes it 74%. 1–0 · 74–20–6
52′⚽ GOAL · 51' Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu 1–0 Yozgat Bld Bozokspor
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu win: 40% at kick-off, 74% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 44%)
55′We published Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu at 40%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–6
67′We published Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu at 40%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
75′We published Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu at 40%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
81′We published Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu at 40%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
83′A red card for Yozgat Bld Bozokspor on 82′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 92–8–0
83′🟥 RED CARD · 82' Yozgat Bld Bozokspor
84′🟨 YELLOW · 82' I. Kalkan · Yozgat Bld Bozokspor
86′Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu score on 85′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
86′⚽ GOAL · 85' Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu 2–0 Yozgat Bld Bozokspor
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu win: 40% at kick-off, over 99% now
87′We published Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu at 40%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu 2–0 Yozgat Bld Bozokspor
FTYeni Mersin Idmanyurdu 2–0 Yozgat Bld Bozokspor · Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu 40%, draw 27%, Yozgat Bld Bozokspor 34%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu v Yozgat Bld BozoksporBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu win40%

Draw27%

Yozgat Bld Bozokspor win34%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:00

Round3. Lig Group 3 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu

Yozgat Bld Bozokspor

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · 3. Lig - Group 3

Last match: 18 Oct · 3. Lig - Group 3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu	7	−2	9
15	Yozgat Bld Bozokspor	7	−15	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · yeni mersin idmanyurdu winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu v Yozgat Bld Bozokspor~~1.37 – 1.25

~~Form · last six in 3. Lig - Group 3 this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 9 v 5~~9 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu win	40%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Yozgat Bld Bozokspor win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu or draw	66%	–	–
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu clean sheet	30%	–	–
Yozgat Bld Bozokspor clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 8.5 9.0 5.7 2.5 1 9.9 12.1 7.2 3.1 2 6.8 8.0 4.9 2.1 3 3.2 3.8 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu down, Yozgat Bld Bozokspor across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,333 3. Lig - Group 3 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Lig - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.4% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2024/25.

Home and away form

Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Yozgat Bld Bozokspor away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu, 1.25 for Yozgat Bld Bozokspor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Lig - Group 3 this season · since 12 Sept

YENI MERSIN IDMANYURDU

LWWLLW1–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 3–0

YOZGAT BLD BOZOKSPOR

LWLLDD1–3 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–9 · 0–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Yeşilyurt Belediyespor	7	+23	19
2	Kırşehir Belediyespor	8	+18	19
3	Karaköprü Belediyespor	7	+10	18
4	Talasgücü Belediyespor	8	+10	18
5	Mazıdağı Fosfatspor	7	+12	17
6	Bitlis Özgüzelderespor	7	+12	16
7	Niğde Belediyesispor	7	+8	15
8	Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu	7	+1	10
9	Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu	7	−2	9
10	Adana Adaletgucu	8	−3	9
11	Osmaniyespor	7	−4	9
12	Ağrı 1970	7	−2	8
13	Silifke Belediyespor	7	−4	7
14	Karaman FK	7	−10	6
15	Yozgat Bld Bozokspor	7	−15	5
16	Diyarbekirspor	7	−8	1
17	Yeni Malatyaspor	8	−21	1
18	Adanaspor	7	−25	0