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Model 1.1

Home › Football › 3. Lig - Group 3 › Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu v Osmaniyespor

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Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu v Osmaniyespor

Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu
0–1Full time
Osmaniyespor

3. Lig - Group 3 · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu 0–1 Osmaniyespor YENI MERSIN IDMANYURDU WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu win52%
The market said51%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.858
The market’s Brier score0.908

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 11 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu win at 52%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–22–25
  3. 2′Much as we predicted: Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–22–25
  4. 22′A goal for Osmaniyespor on 22′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 24–24–51
  5. 42′O. Sismanoglu scores for Osmaniyespor on 21′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 17–26–57
  6. 45′O. Sismanoglu scores for Osmaniyespor on 21′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 16–26–58
  7. 46′We said Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–26–58
  8. 51′We said Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–26–60
  9. 71′We said Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 5%. 0–1 · 5–22–73
  10. 86′We said Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 0%. 0–1 · 0–8–92
  11. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu win: 52% at kick-off, 5% now
  12. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu win: 52% at kick-off, 0% now
  13. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu win: 52% at kick-off, 0% now
  14. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu win: 52% at kick-off, 5% now
  15. 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu win: 52% at kick-off, 0% now
  16. 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu win: 52% at kick-off, 5% now
  17. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu win: 52% at kick-off, 5% now
  18. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu win: 52% at kick-off, 0% now
  19. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu win: 52% at kick-off, 5% now
  20. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu win: 52% at kick-off, 0% now
  21. FTFULL TIME Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu 0–1 Osmaniyespor
  22. FTYeni Mersin Idmanyurdu 0–1 Osmaniyespor · Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu win52%
Draw22%
Osmaniyespor win26%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 17:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu

Osmaniyespor

8Days since last match8
2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
9Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu5−46
13Osmaniyespor5−63

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · yeni mersin idmanyurdu winPublished 11 Oct 17:22
52% The market51%
Us52%
Market51%

We make Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 2.0–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55% 9 OCT 06:2111 OCT 04:07
Our probability · yeni mersin idmanyurdu win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu win52%51%0
Draw22%25%−3
Osmaniyespor win26%24%+3
Over 2.5 goals61%55%+5
Both teams to score59%57%+2
Over 1.5 goals81%77%+5
Over 3.5 goals40%35%+5
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu or draw74%76%−3
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu clean sheet30%––
Osmaniyespor clean sheet17%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%
0123450 5.3 5.5 3.5 1 8.1 9.8 5.9 2.6 2 7.4 8.5 5.3 2.4 3 4.6 5.4 3.3 4 2.4 2.7 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu down, Osmaniyespor across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in 3. Lig - Group 3

YENI MERSIN IDMANYURDU

WLLWWL2–0 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–3

OSMANIYESPOR

LWLLLL3–7 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 2–4

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Yeşilyurt Belediyespor5+2015
2Mazıdağı Fosfatspor5+913
3Talasgücü Belediyespor5+513
4Bitlis Özgüzelderespor5+1112
5Niğde Belediyesispor4+812
6Karaköprü Belediyespor4+712
7Kırşehir Belediyespor4+129
8Ağrı 1970507
9Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu5−46
10Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu5−24
11Silifke Belediyespor5−64
12Adana Adaletgucu4−33
13Osmaniyespor5−63
14Yozgat Bld Bozokspor5−153
15Diyarbekirspor5−61
16Karaman FK4−130
17Adanaspor5−170

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.