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Silifke Belediyespor v Karaköprü Belediyespor

Silifke Belediyespor

1–2Full time

Karaköprü Belediyespor

3. Lig - Group 3 · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Silifke Belediyespor 1–2 Karaköprü Belediyespor KARAKÖPRÜ BELEDIYESPOR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Karaköprü Belediyespor win~~45%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.449

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.360

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Karaköprü Belediyespor win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Karaköprü Belediyespor 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 30–25–45
1′KICK-OFF Silifke Belediyespor v Karaköprü Belediyespor
45′HALF-TIME Silifke Belediyespor 0–0 Karaköprü Belediyespor
46′SECOND HALF Silifke Belediyespor 0–0 Karaköprü Belediyespor
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+3' Karaköprü Belediyespor win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+3' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Karaköprü Belediyespor win 35%)
53′We said Karaköprü Belediyespor at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 23–43–33
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.8 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 23–45–32
60′Karaköprü Belediyespor score on 60′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 4–17–79
60′We said Karaköprü Belediyespor at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 0–1 · 4–17–79
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Silifke Belediyespor 0–1 Karaköprü Belediyespor
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Karaköprü Belediyespor win: 45% at kick-off, 79% now
60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Karaköprü Belediyespor win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 17%)
63′We said Karaköprü Belediyespor at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 4–17–80
66′Silifke Belediyespor find the net on 65′. 1–1. 1–1 · 19–55–26
66′We said Karaköprü Belediyespor at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 1–1 · 19–55–26
66′⚽ GOAL · 65' Silifke Belediyespor 1–1 Karaköprü Belediyespor
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Karaköprü Belediyespor win: 45% at kick-off, 26% now
66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Draw is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Karaköprü Belediyespor win 26%)
67′Silifke Belediyespor level it on 60′ through E. Calisanlar. 1–1. 1–1 · 19–56–26
67′Karaköprü Belediyespor level it on 61′ through an own goal by E. Calisanlar. 1–1. 1–1 · 19–56–26
67′Karaköprü Belediyespor find the net on 67′. 1–2 · 3–16–81
67′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 3–16–81
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Silifke Belediyespor 1–2 Karaköprü Belediyespor
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Karaköprü Belediyespor win: 45% at kick-off, 81% now
67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Karaköprü Belediyespor win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Draw 16%)
68′We said Karaköprü Belediyespor at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 0–2 · 0–2–97
68′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 0–2 · 0–2–97
68′GOAL DISALLOWED · 68' Silifke Belediyespor
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Karaköprü Belediyespor win: 45% at kick-off, 97% now
70′Karaköprü Belediyespor ahead on 66′ through O. E. Demir. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–98
74′A goal for Silifke Belediyespor on 74′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 2–13–85
74′We said Karaköprü Belediyespor at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–2 · 2–13–85
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Silifke Belediyespor 1–2 Karaköprü Belediyespor
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Karaköprü Belediyespor win: 45% at kick-off, 85% now
81′We said Karaköprü Belediyespor at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Karaköprü Belediyespor win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
FTFULL TIME Silifke Belediyespor 1–2 Karaköprü Belediyespor
FTSilifke Belediyespor 1–2 Karaköprü Belediyespor · Karaköprü Belediyespor win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Karaköprü Belediyespor are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Silifke Belediyespor 30%, draw 25%, Karaköprü Belediyespor 45%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Silifke Belediyespor v Karaköprü BelediyesporBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Silifke Belediyespor win30%

Draw25%

Karaköprü Belediyespor win45%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:30

Round3. Lig Group 3 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Silifke Belediyespor

Karaköprü Belediyespor

5Days since last match6

Last match: 12 Oct · 3. Lig - Group 3

Last match: 11 Oct · 3. Lig - Group 3

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Karaköprü Belediyespor	6	+9	15
10	Silifke Belediyespor	6	−3	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · karaköprü belediyespor winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:49 · locked at kick-off

45% The market51%

Us45%

~~Market~~51%

We make Karaköprü Belediyespor a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Silifke Belediyespor v Karaköprü Belediyespor~~1.19 – 1.58

~~Form · 3. Lig - Group 3 this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W4 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 15~~10 v 5

~~The market · Karaköprü Belediyespor win~~51% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Karaköprü Belediyespor win The market, margin stripped

Published at 52%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Silifke Belediyespor win	30%	23%	+7
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Karaköprü Belediyespor win	45%	51%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	51%	58%	−7
Both teams to score	53%	59%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	75%	79%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	30%	38%	−8
Silifke Belediyespor or draw	55%	49%	+6
Silifke Belediyespor clean sheet	23%	–	–
Karaköprü Belediyespor clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 7.6 9.8 7.6 4.1 1 7.6 11.4 8.3 4.4 2 4.7 6.7 4.9 2.6 3 2.8 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Silifke Belediyespor down, Karaköprü Belediyespor across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,324 3. Lig - Group 3 matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Lig - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.7% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Silifke Belediyespor at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 3). Karaköprü Belediyespor away: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.19 goals for Silifke Belediyespor, 1.58 for Karaköprü Belediyespor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SIL 0–1 KAR · KAR 0–2 SIL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 3. Lig - Group 3 this season · since 6 Sept

SILIFKE BELEDIYESPOR

LDWLLW0–2 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 0–4 · 0–3 · 4–1

KARAKÖPRÜ BELEDIYESPOR

WWWWL3–1 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Yeşilyurt Belediyespor	6	+23	18
2	Talasgücü Belediyespor	6	+10	16
3	Bitlis Özgüzelderespor	6	+12	15
4	Niğde Belediyesispor	6	+10	15
5	Karaköprü Belediyespor	6	+9	15
6	Mazıdağı Fosfatspor	6	+9	14
7	Kırşehir Belediyespor	6	+15	13
8	Ağrı 1970	6	0	8
9	Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu	6	−1	7
10	Silifke Belediyespor	6	−3	7
11	Adana Adaletgucu	6	−3	6
12	Osmaniyespor	6	−5	6
13	Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu	6	−5	6
14	Karaman FK	6	−9	6
15	Yozgat Bld Bozokspor	6	−15	4
16	Diyarbekirspor	6	−7	1
17	Yeni Malatyaspor	6	−18	0
18	Adanaspor	6	−22	0