Osmaniyespor v Diyarbekirspor prediction · 3. Lig

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 15:23

Osmaniyespor 1–0 Diyarbekirspor OSMANIYESPOR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Osmaniyespor win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.429

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Osmaniyespor win at 47%.
1′Much as we predicted: Osmaniyespor was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–24–30
1′KICK-OFF Osmaniyespor v Diyarbekirspor
4′A goal for Osmaniyespor on 4′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 70–16–13
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Osmaniyespor 1–0 Diyarbekirspor
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Osmaniyespor win: 47% at kick-off, 70% now
5′We published Osmaniyespor at 47%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–16–13
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 72–18–10
45′HALF-TIME Osmaniyespor 1–0 Diyarbekirspor
46′SECOND HALF Osmaniyespor 1–0 Diyarbekirspor
50′We published Osmaniyespor at 47%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Osmaniyespor win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
66′We published Osmaniyespor at 47%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
75′We published Osmaniyespor at 47%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Osmaniyespor win: 47% at kick-off, 87% now
82′We published Osmaniyespor at 47%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
88′We published Osmaniyespor at 47%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Osmaniyespor win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
FTFULL TIME Osmaniyespor 1–0 Diyarbekirspor
FTOsmaniyespor 1–0 Diyarbekirspor · Osmaniyespor win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Osmaniyespor are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Osmaniyespor 47%, draw 24%, Diyarbekirspor 30%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Osmaniyespor v DiyarbekirsporBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Osmaniyespor win47%

Draw24%

Diyarbekirspor win30%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:30

Round3. Lig Group 3 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Osmaniyespor

Diyarbekirspor

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · 3. Lig - Group 3

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Osmaniyespor	6	−5	6
16	Diyarbekirspor	6	−7	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · osmaniyespor winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Osmaniyespor a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Osmaniyespor v Diyarbekirspor~~1.77 – 1.36

~~Form · 3. Lig - Group 3 this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 6 v 1~~13 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Osmaniyespor win	47%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Diyarbekirspor win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	58%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Osmaniyespor or draw	70%	–	–
Osmaniyespor clean sheet	28%	–	–
Diyarbekirspor clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 5.7 6.2 4.2 1 8.1 10.5 6.6 3.0 2 6.9 8.5 5.5 2.5 3 4.0 4.9 3.2 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Osmaniyespor down, Diyarbekirspor across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,327 3. Lig - Group 3 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Lig - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.7% of games this season, across 51 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.33 goals a meeting; 0 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Osmaniyespor at home: 1.83 scored, 2.83 conceded a game (last 6). Diyarbekirspor away: 0.67 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.77 goals for Osmaniyespor, 1.36 for Diyarbekirspor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.33

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~OSM 0–2 DIY · DIY 1–1 OSM · OSM 0–0 DIY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 3. Lig - Group 3 this season · since 6 Sept

OSMANIYESPOR

WLLLLW3–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 2–4 · 1–0

DIYARBEKIRSPOR

LLDLLL0–1 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Yeşilyurt Belediyespor	7	+23	19
2	Karaköprü Belediyespor	7	+10	18
3	Bitlis Özgüzelderespor	7	+12	16
4	Talasgücü Belediyespor	6	+10	16
5	Niğde Belediyesispor	6	+10	15
6	Mazıdağı Fosfatspor	7	+9	15
7	Kırşehir Belediyespor	6	+15	13
8	Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu	7	−2	9
9	Ağrı 1970	6	0	8
10	Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu	6	−1	7
11	Silifke Belediyespor	7	−4	7
12	Adana Adaletgucu	6	−3	6
13	Osmaniyespor	6	−5	6
14	Karaman FK	6	−9	6
15	Yozgat Bld Bozokspor	6	−15	4
16	Diyarbekirspor	6	−7	1
17	Yeni Malatyaspor	7	−18	1
18	Adanaspor	7	−25	0