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Model 1.2

Home › Football › 3. Lig - Group 3 › Mazıdağı Fosfatspor v Bitlis Özgüzelderespor

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Mazıdağı Fosfatspor v Bitlis Özgüzelderespor

Mazıdağı Fosfatspor
1–1Full time
Bitlis Özgüzelderespor

3. Lig - Group 3 · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53
Mazıdağı Fosfatspor 1–1 Bitlis Özgüzelderespor BITLIS ÖZGÜZELDERESPOR WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Bitlis Özgüzelderespor win37%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.793

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 14 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Bitlis Özgüzelderespor win at 37%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Bitlis Özgüzelderespor was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 36–27–37
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Mazıdağı Fosfatspor v Bitlis Özgüzelderespor
  4. 35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Bitlis Özgüzelderespor win 34%)
  5. 41′Bitlis Özgüzelderespor score on 41′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 9–21–70
  6. 41′We published Bitlis Özgüzelderespor at 37%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 9–21–70
  7. 41′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 9–21–70
  8. 41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Mazıdağı Fosfatspor 0–1 Bitlis Özgüzelderespor
  9. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Bitlis Özgüzelderespor win: 37% at kick-off, 70% now
  10. 41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Bitlis Özgüzelderespor win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Draw 39%)
  11. 45′HALF-TIME Mazıdağı Fosfatspor 0–1 Bitlis Özgüzelderespor
  12. 46′SECOND HALF Mazıdağı Fosfatspor 0–1 Bitlis Özgüzelderespor
  13. 56′We published Bitlis Özgüzelderespor at 37%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 6–20–75
  14. 61′Mazıdağı Fosfatspor find the net on 61′. 1–1. 1–1 · 23–53–24
  15. 61′We said Bitlis Özgüzelderespor at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 23–53–24
  16. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Bitlis Özgüzelderespor win: 37% at kick-off, 77% now
  17. 61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Mazıdağı Fosfatspor 1–1 Bitlis Özgüzelderespor
  18. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Bitlis Özgüzelderespor win: 37% at kick-off, 24% now
  19. 61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Draw is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Bitlis Özgüzelderespor win 77%)
  20. 70′We said Bitlis Özgüzelderespor at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–62–19
  21. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Bitlis Özgüzelderespor win: 37% at kick-off, 17% now
  22. 77′We said Bitlis Özgüzelderespor at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–72–14
  23. 83′We said Bitlis Özgüzelderespor at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 8–83–9
  24. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Bitlis Özgüzelderespor win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
  25. 90′We said Bitlis Özgüzelderespor at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
  26. FTFULL TIME Mazıdağı Fosfatspor 1–1 Bitlis Özgüzelderespor
  27. FTMazıdağı Fosfatspor 1–1 Bitlis Özgüzelderespor · Bitlis Özgüzelderespor win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Bitlis Özgüzelderespor just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Mazıdağı Fosfatspor 36%, draw 27%, Bitlis Özgüzelderespor 37%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Mazıdağı Fosfatspor v Bitlis ÖzgüzelderesporBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Mazıdağı Fosfatspor win36%
Draw27%
Bitlis Özgüzelderespor win37%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

Round3. Lig Group 3 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mazıdağı Fosfatspor

Bitlis Özgüzelderespor

13Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · 3. Lig - Group 3

Last match: 17 Oct · 3. Lig - Group 3

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
4Mazıdağı Fosfatspor7+1217
6Bitlis Özgüzelderespor7+1216

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bitlis özgüzelderespor winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
37% The market–
Us37%

We make Bitlis Özgüzelderespor a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Mazıdağı Fosfatspor v Bitlis Özgüzelderespor1.23 – 1.27
Form · last six in 3. Lig - Group 3 this season · since 12 SeptW3 D2 L0 · W4 D1 L1
Table places · points 17 v 164 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Mazıdağı Fosfatspor win36%––
Draw27%––
Bitlis Özgüzelderespor win37%––
Over 2.5 goals45%––
Both teams to score49%––
Over 1.5 goals70%––
Over 3.5 goals24%––
Mazıdağı Fosfatspor or draw63%––
Mazıdağı Fosfatspor clean sheet30%––
Bitlis Özgüzelderespor clean sheet31%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%
0123450 9.4 10.3 6.5 2.9 1 10.1 12.4 7.5 3.3 2 6.3 7.4 4.6 3 2.7 3.2 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Mazıdağı Fosfatspor down, Bitlis Özgüzelderespor across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Lig - Group 3 this season · since 12 Sept

MAZIDAĞI FOSFATSPOR

WDWWD3–0 · 0–0 · 4–1 · 2–1 · 0–0

BITLIS ÖZGÜZELDERESPOR

WWLWWD3–0 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 5–0 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Yeşilyurt Belediyespor7+2319
2Kırşehir Belediyespor8+1819
3Karaköprü Belediyespor7+1018
4Mazıdağı Fosfatspor7+1217
5Talasgücü Belediyespor7+1017
6Bitlis Özgüzelderespor7+1216
7Niğde Belediyesispor7+815
8Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu7+110
9Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu7−29
10Adana Adaletgucu8−39
11Osmaniyespor7−49
12Ağrı 19707−28
13Silifke Belediyespor7−47
14Karaman FK7−106
15Yozgat Bld Bozokspor7−155
16Diyarbekirspor7−81
17Yeni Malatyaspor7−210
18Adanaspor7−250

The competition's standings before kick-off.