Karaman FK v Adana Adaletgucu prediction · 3. Lig

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 15:23

Karaman FK 0–1 Adana Adaletgucu KARAMAN FK WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Karaman FK win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.605

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Karaman FK win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Karaman FK was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–23–37
1′KICK-OFF Karaman FK v Adana Adaletgucu
45′HALF-TIME Karaman FK 0–0 Adana Adaletgucu
46′SECOND HALF Karaman FK 0–0 Adana Adaletgucu
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Karaman FK win 32%)
55′We expected about 3.4 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 31–40–29
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Karaman FK win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
62′We said Karaman FK at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 28–45–27
69′We said Karaman FK at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–53–23
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Karaman FK win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
76′We said Karaman FK at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–63–18
81′We said Karaman FK at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–73–13
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Karaman FK win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
85′We said Karaman FK at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–82–9
90′Adana Adaletgucu score on 89′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 0–5–95
90′We said Karaman FK at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at under 1%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
90′⚽ GOAL · 89' Karaman FK 0–1 Adana Adaletgucu
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Karaman FK win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Adana Adaletgucu win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Draw 5%)
FTFULL TIME Karaman FK 0–1 Adana Adaletgucu
FTKaraman FK 0–1 Adana Adaletgucu · Karaman FK win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Karaman FK just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Karaman FK 40%, draw 23%, Adana Adaletgucu 37%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Karaman FK v Adana AdaletgucuBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Karaman FK win40%

Draw23%

Adana Adaletgucu win37%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:30

Round3. Lig Group 3 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Karaman FK

Adana Adaletgucu

7Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · 3. Lig - Group 3

Last match: 12 Oct · 3. Lig - Group 3

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Adana Adaletgucu	6	−3	6
14	Karaman FK	6	−9	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · karaman fk winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:49 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Karaman FK a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Karaman FK v Adana Adaletgucu~~1.75 – 1.69

~~Form · 3. Lig - Group 3 this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D0 L4 · W1 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 6 v 6~~14 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Karaman FK win

Published at 35%, 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Karaman FK win	40%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Adana Adaletgucu win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	65%	–	–
Both teams to score	65%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	44%	–	–
Karaman FK or draw	63%	–	–
Karaman FK clean sheet	20%	–	–
Adana Adaletgucu clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.6%

0123450 4.2 5.6 4.7 2.7 1 5.8 9.6 7.4 4.2 2 5.1 7.8 6.2 3.5 3 3.0 4.5 3.6 2.0 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Karaman FK down, Adana Adaletgucu across0–5 goals a side shown (97.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,327 3. Lig - Group 3 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Lig - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.7% of games this season, across 51 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Karaman FK at home: 0.33 scored, 3.67 conceded a game (last 3). Adana Adaletgucu away: 0.67 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.75 goals for Karaman FK, 1.69 for Adana Adaletgucu. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 3. Lig - Group 3 this season · since 6 Sept

KARAMAN FK

LLLLW0–3 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 1–7 · 2–1

ADANA ADALETGUCU

LWLLL2–3 · 5–1 · 0–1 · 0–5 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Yeşilyurt Belediyespor	7	+23	19
2	Karaköprü Belediyespor	7	+10	18
3	Bitlis Özgüzelderespor	7	+12	16
4	Talasgücü Belediyespor	6	+10	16
5	Niğde Belediyesispor	6	+10	15
6	Mazıdağı Fosfatspor	7	+9	15
7	Kırşehir Belediyespor	6	+15	13
8	Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu	7	−2	9
9	Ağrı 1970	6	0	8
10	Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu	6	−1	7
11	Silifke Belediyespor	7	−4	7
12	Adana Adaletgucu	6	−3	6
13	Osmaniyespor	6	−5	6
14	Karaman FK	6	−9	6
15	Yozgat Bld Bozokspor	6	−15	4
16	Diyarbekirspor	6	−7	1
17	Yeni Malatyaspor	7	−18	1
18	Adanaspor	7	−25	0