Bitlis Özgüzelderespor v Yeşilyurt Belediyespor prediction · 3. Lig

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

Bitlis Özgüzelderespor 1–1 Yeşilyurt Belediyespor BITLIS ÖZGÜZELDERESPOR WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Bitlis Özgüzelderespor win~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.882

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bitlis Özgüzelderespor win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Bitlis Özgüzelderespor 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–23–38
1′KICK-OFF Bitlis Özgüzelderespor v Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
38′A goal for Yeşilyurt Belediyespor on 38′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 13–21–66
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Bitlis Özgüzelderespor 0–1 Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Bitlis Özgüzelderespor win: 38% at kick-off, 13% now
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Yeşilyurt Belediyespor win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Bitlis Özgüzelderespor win 13%)
39′We said Bitlis Özgüzelderespor at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 0–1 · 12–21–66
45′HALF-TIME Bitlis Özgüzelderespor 0–1 Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
46′SECOND HALF Bitlis Özgüzelderespor 0–1 Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
51′We said Bitlis Özgüzelderespor at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–21–69
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Bitlis Özgüzelderespor win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
68′We said Bitlis Özgüzelderespor at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–19–76
75′Bitlis Özgüzelderespor score on 75′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 19–63–19
75′We said Bitlis Özgüzelderespor at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–63–19
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Bitlis Özgüzelderespor 1–1 Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Bitlis Özgüzelderespor win: 38% at kick-off, 19% now
75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Draw is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Yeşilyurt Belediyespor win 19%)
79′74′: S. Ohawuchi on the scoresheet for Bitlis Özgüzelderespor, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 15–70–15
80′Yeşilyurt Belediyespor are down to ten from 80′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–1 · 14–72–14
80′🟥 RED CARD · 80' Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Bitlis Özgüzelderespor win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
87′🟨 YELLOW · 76' E. Nalbantoglu · Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
FTFULL TIME Bitlis Özgüzelderespor 1–1 Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
FTBitlis Özgüzelderespor 1–1 Yeşilyurt Belediyespor · Bitlis Özgüzelderespor win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Bitlis Özgüzelderespor just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Bitlis Özgüzelderespor 38%, draw 23%, Yeşilyurt Belediyespor 38%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Bitlis Özgüzelderespor v Yeşilyurt BelediyesporBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Bitlis Özgüzelderespor win38%

Draw23%

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor win38%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

Round3. Lig Group 3 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bitlis Özgüzelderespor

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor

6Days since last match10

Last match: 11 Oct · 3. Lig - Group 3

Last match: 7 Oct · Türkiye Kupası

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bitlis özgüzelderespor winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Bitlis Özgüzelderespor a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bitlis Özgüzelderespor v Yeşilyurt Belediyespor~~1.63 – 1.63

~~Form · 3. Lig - Group 3 this season · since 6 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W5 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 15 v 18~~3 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bitlis Özgüzelderespor win

Published at 37%, 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bitlis Özgüzelderespor win	38%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	62%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	40%	–	–
Bitlis Özgüzelderespor or draw	62%	–	–
Bitlis Özgüzelderespor clean sheet	21%	–	–
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 4.9 6.4 5.2 2.9 1 6.5 10.2 7.7 4.2 2 5.2 7.8 6.0 3.3 3 2.9 4.2 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bitlis Özgüzelderespor down, Yeşilyurt Belediyespor across0–5 goals a side shown (97.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,324 3. Lig - Group 3 matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Lig - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.7% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Bitlis Özgüzelderespor at home: 3.33 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 3). Yeşilyurt Belediyespor away: 3.67 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.63 goals for Bitlis Özgüzelderespor, 1.63 for Yeşilyurt Belediyespor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 3. Lig - Group 3 this season · since 6 Sept

BITLIS ÖZGÜZELDERESPOR

WWWLWW2–0 · 3–0 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 5–0 · 1–0

YEŞILYURT BELEDIYESPOR

WWWWW1–0 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 8–0 · 9–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Yeşilyurt Belediyespor	6	+23	18
2	Talasgücü Belediyespor	6	+10	16
3	Bitlis Özgüzelderespor	6	+12	15
4	Niğde Belediyesispor	6	+10	15
5	Karaköprü Belediyespor	6	+9	15
6	Mazıdağı Fosfatspor	6	+9	14
7	Kırşehir Belediyespor	6	+15	13
8	Ağrı 1970	6	0	8
9	Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu	6	−1	7
10	Silifke Belediyespor	6	−3	7
11	Adana Adaletgucu	6	−3	6
12	Osmaniyespor	6	−5	6
13	Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu	6	−5	6
14	Karaman FK	6	−9	6
15	Yozgat Bld Bozokspor	6	−15	4
16	Diyarbekirspor	6	−7	1
17	Yeni Malatyaspor	6	−18	0
18	Adanaspor	6	−22	0