Adanaspor v Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu prediction · 3. Lig

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Adanaspor 0–3 Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu YENI MERSIN IDMANYURDU WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu win~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.445

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 31–24–46
1′KICK-OFF Adanaspor v Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu
45′HALF-TIME Adanaspor 0–1 Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu
46′SECOND HALF Adanaspor 0–1 Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu
47′Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu score on 45′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 8–19–74
47′We said Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 0–1 · 8–19–74
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
47′⚽ GOAL · 45+2' Adanaspor 0–1 Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+2' Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu win: 46% at kick-off, 74% now
52′We said Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 7–19–75
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu win: 46% at kick-off, 76% now
58′Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu find the net on 58′. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–95
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Adanaspor 0–2 Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu win: 46% at kick-off, 95% now
59′We said Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
59′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 0–2 · 1–4–95
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
71′A goal for Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu on 71′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
71′We said Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Adanaspor 0–3 Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu
FTFULL TIME Adanaspor 0–3 Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu
FTAdanaspor 0–3 Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu · Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Adanaspor 31%, draw 24%, Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu 46%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Adanaspor v Yeni Mersin IdmanyurduBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Adanaspor win31%

Draw24%

Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu win46%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:30

Round3. Lig Group 3 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Adanaspor

Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · 3. Lig - Group 3

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu	6	−5	6
18	Adanaspor	6	−22	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · yeni mersin idmanyurdu winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:06 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Adanaspor v Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu~~1.36 – 1.73

~~Form · 3. Lig - Group 3 this season · since 6 Sept~~W0 D0 L6 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 0 v 6~~18 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu win

Published at 45%, 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Adanaspor win	31%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu win	46%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	58%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Adanaspor or draw	54%	–	–
Adanaspor clean sheet	20%	–	–
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 5.9 8.0 6.8 4.0 1 6.3 10.5 8.4 4.9 2.2 2 4.4 6.7 5.6 3.2 3 2.0 3.2 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Adanaspor down, Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,324 3. Lig - Group 3 matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Lig - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.7% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Adanaspor at home: 0.67 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 3). Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu away: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Adanaspor, 1.73 for Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ADA 0–3 YEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 3. Lig - Group 3 this season · since 6 Sept

ADANASPOR

LLLLLL0–2 · 1–5 · 1–3 · 0–8 · 1–2 · 1–6

YENI MERSIN IDMANYURDU

LLWWLL1–3 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Yeşilyurt Belediyespor	6	+23	18
2	Talasgücü Belediyespor	6	+10	16
3	Bitlis Özgüzelderespor	6	+12	15
4	Niğde Belediyesispor	6	+10	15
5	Karaköprü Belediyespor	6	+9	15
6	Mazıdağı Fosfatspor	6	+9	14
7	Kırşehir Belediyespor	6	+15	13
8	Ağrı 1970	6	0	8
9	Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu	6	−1	7
10	Silifke Belediyespor	6	−3	7
11	Adana Adaletgucu	6	−3	6
12	Osmaniyespor	6	−5	6
13	Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu	6	−5	6
14	Karaman FK	6	−9	6
15	Yozgat Bld Bozokspor	6	−15	4
16	Diyarbekirspor	6	−7	1
17	Yeni Malatyaspor	6	−18	0
18	Adanaspor	6	−22	0